Cardano retraces – Profit-taking threat looms once again

ambcryptoPublished on 2026-03-02Last updated on 2026-03-02

Abstract

Cardano (ADA) has been range-bound between $0.246 and $0.305 for most of February, with recent gains pushing it back into the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap. However, the short-term trend remains uncertain. On-chain data shows rising mean coin ages since January, indicating network-wide accumulation, while dormant circulation has been low. The 30-day MVRV ratio is at -3.65%, suggesting recent buyers are at a slight loss. Historically, a move into positive MVRV territory has preceded sell-offs, as seen in early January. Traders should be cautious, as profit-taking pressure could lead to a downturn, despite the current signs of accumulation.

Cardano [ADA] has lacked a prevalent trend throughout February. It has traded between $0.246 and $0.305 for most of the past month. Brief price wicks above or below these local extremes were quickly reversed.

At the time of writing, ADA was trading at the midpoint between these key S/R levels. The trading volume picked up over the volatile weekend.

The gains made since the 25th of February have propelled Cardano back to the top 10 crypto assets by market capitalization, AMBCrypto reported.

Ousting Bitcoin Cash [BCH] from the top 10 was no small feat, but the short-term trend still lacked conviction. The $0.27 short liquidation levels pile-up was squeezed, as AMBCrypto hinted it might be a week ago.

Examination of the on-chain metrics shed further light on what Cardano traders and investors could expect next.

Profit-taking pressure is a threat

The 90-day and 365-day mean coin ages have been trending higher since January. They witnessed a steep drop in December. At the same time, the dormant circulation had also registered 2025’s biggest peak.

The dormant circulation spike in December highlighted a high quantity of ADA tokens moving on-chain, which had previously been dormant for a long time.

The fall in mean coin age showed that tokens of different ages were being moved, likely due to the duress the market faced back then.

Over the past two months, the rising mean coin ages reflected network-wide Cardano accumulation. The dormant circulation was also quiet, agreeing that on-chain coin movements were relatively muted.

At the same time, the short-term holders were nearing breakeven or realizing profits. The 30-day MVRV was at -3.65%, meaning that ADA buyers within the past 30 days were facing a 3.65% loss on average.

The last time this metric became positive, ADA prices made a double top at $0.426 in early January before trending lower. Meanwhile, 90-day MVRV values were deep in negative territory, signaling dejected holder sentiment.

Final Summary

  • Traders and investors would be thrilled to see the rising mean coin age metrics, but remember that the longer-term trend has been bearish since September 2025.
  • The 30-day MVRV was nearing positive values. The last time it happened in January, a strong sell-off followed.

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