Cardano retraces – Profit-taking threat looms once again

ambcryptoPublished on 2026-03-02Last updated on 2026-03-02

Abstract

Cardano (ADA) has been range-bound between $0.246 and $0.305 for most of February, with recent gains pushing it back into the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap. However, the short-term trend remains uncertain. On-chain data shows rising mean coin ages since January, indicating network-wide accumulation, while dormant circulation has been low. The 30-day MVRV ratio is at -3.65%, suggesting recent buyers are at a slight loss. Historically, a move into positive MVRV territory has preceded sell-offs, as seen in early January. Traders should be cautious, as profit-taking pressure could lead to a downturn, despite the current signs of accumulation.

Cardano [ADA] has lacked a prevalent trend throughout February. It has traded between $0.246 and $0.305 for most of the past month. Brief price wicks above or below these local extremes were quickly reversed.

At the time of writing, ADA was trading at the midpoint between these key S/R levels. The trading volume picked up over the volatile weekend.

The gains made since the 25th of February have propelled Cardano back to the top 10 crypto assets by market capitalization, AMBCrypto reported.

Ousting Bitcoin Cash [BCH] from the top 10 was no small feat, but the short-term trend still lacked conviction. The $0.27 short liquidation levels pile-up was squeezed, as AMBCrypto hinted it might be a week ago.

Examination of the on-chain metrics shed further light on what Cardano traders and investors could expect next.

Profit-taking pressure is a threat

The 90-day and 365-day mean coin ages have been trending higher since January. They witnessed a steep drop in December. At the same time, the dormant circulation had also registered 2025’s biggest peak.

The dormant circulation spike in December highlighted a high quantity of ADA tokens moving on-chain, which had previously been dormant for a long time.

The fall in mean coin age showed that tokens of different ages were being moved, likely due to the duress the market faced back then.

Over the past two months, the rising mean coin ages reflected network-wide Cardano accumulation. The dormant circulation was also quiet, agreeing that on-chain coin movements were relatively muted.

At the same time, the short-term holders were nearing breakeven or realizing profits. The 30-day MVRV was at -3.65%, meaning that ADA buyers within the past 30 days were facing a 3.65% loss on average.

The last time this metric became positive, ADA prices made a double top at $0.426 in early January before trending lower. Meanwhile, 90-day MVRV values were deep in negative territory, signaling dejected holder sentiment.

Final Summary

  • Traders and investors would be thrilled to see the rising mean coin age metrics, but remember that the longer-term trend has been bearish since September 2025.
  • The 30-day MVRV was nearing positive values. The last time it happened in January, a strong sell-off followed.

Trending Cryptos

ctr
CitreaCTR
wstusdt
wrapped stUSDTWSTUSDT
apr
aPrioriAPR
ctx
Cryptex FinanceCTX
audio
AudiusAUDIO
mantra
MantraMANTRA
xvs
VenusXVS
waxl
AxelarWAXL
bill
Billions NetworkBILL
pyth
PYTH (Pyth)PYTH
rune
THORChainRUNE
velodrome
Velodrome FinanceVELODROME
brev
BrevisBREV
zrx
ZRX（0X）ZRX
cake
PancakeSwapCAKE

Related Reads

No Sales Team, $20 Million in Revenue: How Did AI Employee Viktor Win Over 30,000 Companies?

The AI employee Viktor, developed by a team with DeepMind background, has achieved $20 million in annual revenue without a traditional sales team, serving over 30,000 companies. Its core innovation lies in positioning itself as a "Tier 3 AI Coworker" capable of "end-to-end execution and delivery of results," moving beyond the "draft and wait for human completion" model of typical AI assistants. Users can simply mention Viktor in Slack or Microsoft Teams using natural language commands, and it autonomously performs tasks like pulling sales data from a CRM, generating reports, or even cross-tool operations like creating board meeting PPTs by aggregating data from six different sources. Key to its growth is a pure Product-Led Growth (PLG) model, eliminating complex implementation cycles and per-seat licensing. Instead, it charges based on task credits or consumption, lowering the trial barrier with a $100 free credit offer and no credit card required. This enabled viral, bottom-up adoption within organizations. Viktor's interaction paradigm removes the barrier of prompt engineering, allowing non-technical employees to delegate complex workflows seamlessly. It also features proactive, automated task execution (e.g., overnight bookkeeping, scheduled reports) based on triggers, effectively embedding AI as an automated "process layer" within business operations. However, its expansion into Microsoft Teams—a platform with 320 million users—highlights challenges. Large enterprises require stringent IT compliance, security reviews (e.g., SOC 2), and governance, potentially hindering the frictionless, user-driven adoption that succeeded in Slack. Additionally, the "black box" nature of its autonomous decision-making raises concerns about operational risks, data integrity, and the need for robust audit logs and permission controls. Balancing efficiency gains with security and trust remains a critical hurdle for Viktor and similar AI agents aiming to become core enterprise infrastructure.

marsbit16m ago

No Sales Team, $20 Million in Revenue: How Did AI Employee Viktor Win Over 30,000 Companies?

marsbit16m ago

Interview with CoreWeave Co-founders: AI Demand Seems to 'Intensify' Every Day

An Interview with CoreWeave Executives: AI Demand Seems to 'Intensify' Every Day In an interview, CoreWeave executives highlight a structural shift in AI infrastructure demand. While GPU availability remains crucial, the primary bottlenecks are evolving to include powered data center shells, skilled labor (like electricians), and complex supply chain execution. They note that AI demand, particularly for agentic AI and reasoning models, continues to intensify daily, accelerating since Q1 2024. This demand is driving a need for more balanced infrastructure. CoreWeave is redesigning data centers to allocate more space for storage and CPUs alongside GPUs, with significant interest in Nvidia's upcoming Vera CPUs. The company, serving top AI labs and hyperscalers, emphasizes its client-driven model, building precisely to customer specifications. CoreWeave attributes its competitive edge to proven execution, performance, and a mature platform for AI deployment. Pricing is structured to pass component cost increases (e.g., for HBM memory) to customers, protecting margins. Looking ahead, they anticipate Vera Rubin platform deployments to begin meaningfully in late 2025, with a major ramp throughout 2027, mirroring the Blackwell (GB) series rollout pattern. The competition is shifting from merely acquiring chips to holistic engineering and delivery capability.

marsbit33m ago

Interview with CoreWeave Co-founders: AI Demand Seems to 'Intensify' Every Day

marsbit33m ago

Manus Buyback Plan Emerges: Chinese Investors Plan to Repurchase Equity with $2 Billion, Path to Hong Kong IPO Becomes Clearer

According to a report by The Information, early Chinese investors of Manus, including Tencent, Sequoia Capital China, and ZhenFund, are planning to repurchase the company from Meta for $2 billion—the same price Meta paid in its acquisition last December. This move is a direct response to the Chinese government's prohibition of the foreign acquisition in April. As part of the repurchase plan, Manus is considering establishing a Sino-foreign joint venture within China. This structure is seen as a way to ensure regulatory compliance for its Chinese investors and to pave the way for a future IPO in Hong Kong. Notably, U.S. investor Benchmark will not participate in the buyback, which will concentrate ownership even more among Chinese capital. Since its acquisition by Meta, Manus's business has grown rapidly, with its annualized revenue run rate reportedly increasing four-to-fivefold to $400-$500 million in roughly six months. This strong growth underpins the investors' willingness to repurchase at the original price. Financially, the forced unwinding of the deal may benefit the early investors, allowing them to regain equity at a cost far below the company's current implied valuation, with the added prospect of an independent future listing. However, specific terms of the repurchase, including funding proportions and the joint venture's equity structure, are still under negotiation. This "repurchase-joint venture-Hong Kong IPO" approach could serve as a reference model for other Chinese AI startups navigating cross-border M&A regulations.

marsbit42m ago

Manus Buyback Plan Emerges: Chinese Investors Plan to Repurchase Equity with $2 Billion, Path to Hong Kong IPO Becomes Clearer

marsbit42m ago

STRC Loses Peg by 11%, Can Strategy's Perpetual Motion Machine Keep Running?

The article discusses the significant and concerning depegging of MicroStrategy's (MSTR) preferred stock, STRC. Designed to trade near its $100 target par value, STRC has recently fallen sharply, reaching a low of $83.26 and closing at $88.59, representing an over 11% discount. STRC is a core component of MicroStrategy's financial strategy. As a perpetual preferred stock, it allows the company to raise capital through an "at-the-market" (ATM) issuance program without diluting common shareholders (MSTR). This capital is primarily used to purchase Bitcoin, creating a "capital flywheel": issuing STRC → raising cash → buying BTC → increasing net assets → supporting STRC's value. The flywheel's operation depends on STRC maintaining its $100 price. To enforce this, MicroStrategy employs a dynamic dividend mechanism, recently raising the rate to 11.5% and increasing payout frequency. However, this has failed to halt the depegging, indicating market concerns extend beyond yield. Analysts cite two main reasons. First, technical factors like forced liquidations from leveraged arbitrage trades may have exacerbated the sell-off. Second, and more fundamentally, is waning confidence in MicroStrategy's financial resilience. A JPMorgan report highlighted the company's limited cash relative to its ~$1.7 billion annual dividend obligation, raising liquidity concerns. While MicroStrategy counters that its massive Bitcoin holdings provide decades of coverage, this argument relies on the potential need to sell BTC—a departure from its long-standing "never sell" narrative. The company's recent sale of a small amount of Bitcoin for "testing," despite being framed as minor, has intensified these fears. The persistent depegging threatens to cripple MicroStrategy's primary funding channel. If STRC remains discounted, the company's ability to fund further Bitcoin purchases weakens. Should cash reserves dwindle while financing is constrained, the market may increasingly price in the risk of MicroStrategy becoming a forced seller of Bitcoin to meet obligations. This shift from a major marginal buyer to a potential seller could pose significant downside risk to the broader Bitcoin market.

链捕手51m ago

STRC Loses Peg by 11%, Can Strategy's Perpetual Motion Machine Keep Running?

链捕手51m ago

Altcoins Face Deepest Spot Sell Pressure Since 2020, CryptoQuant Data Shows

Altcoins are enduring one of their most severe periods of spot-market selling pressure since 2020, according to CryptoQuant data, with a cumulative buy/sell volume gap of roughly $209 billion. This reflects weak retail demand, a rotation into safer assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoin yield products, and broad investor caution. While such extreme selling can set the stage for a contrarian opportunity by showing one-sided positioning, the data does not yet signal an immediate reversal or altcoin season. The market remains in a defensive state, lacking the sustained spot accumulation and broad sector improvement needed for a confirmed bullish turn.

bitcoinist1h ago

Altcoins Face Deepest Spot Sell Pressure Since 2020, CryptoQuant Data Shows

bitcoinist1h ago

Trading

Spot
Futures

Hot Articles

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of ADA (ADA) are presented below.

活动图片

Top Questions