Currently, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $2.36 trillion, with BTC accounting for 58.3%, at $1.37 trillion. The stablecoin market cap is $307.9 billion, having increased by 2.16% in the last 7 days, with USDT making up 59.66% of that.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, half are up and half are down, with: BTC down 1.99% over 7 days, ETH down 1.5%, SOL down 3.64%, PIPPIN up 229.46%, and H up 56.35%.

This week, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $358.9 million; US Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $161 million.

Market Forecast (February 16 - February 22):

BTC: $66,000-$70,000

ETH: $1,880-$2,120

SOL: $75-$100

The current RSI index is 55.7 (neutral zone), the Fear & Greed Index is 8 (Extreme Fear, lower than last week), and the Altseason Index is 45 (neutral, higher than last week).

Following a strong rebound triggered by regulatory positive news this past Friday, short-term market sentiment has been boosted, but clear technical resistance remains overhead. It is expected that the market will experience a period of consolidation next week, digesting the positive news and guided by macroeconomic data, before choosing a direction. Therefore, strategies should remain flexible, with controlled positions, focusing on buying low and selling high, while closely monitoring breakthrough signals from macroeconomic data.

The market next week will not operate in isolation; close attention must be paid to the following variables:

• Macro Data: Pay attention to US economic data and speeches from Federal Reserve officials. Any hints regarding interest rate policy will impact risk assets.
• ETF Flows: Whether Friday's rebound can attract a return of institutional funds is key to its sustainability. If ETFs continue to see significant outflows next week, the rebound may falter.
• Regulatory Dynamics: The US Treasury Secretary's speech this week was a major positive. Subsequent attention should be paid to the progress of Congressional discussions on the 'Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act'.

Understanding the Present

Review of the Week's Major Events

1. February 8th: Crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett disclosed details of the upcoming White House crypto meeting next Tuesday. This meeting is the second in a series, still at the staff level, and will not invite company executives, but senior policy personnel from various banks will attend;
2. February 8th: Li Hua Yi, founder of Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital), after Trend Research (under his umbrella) cleared its ETH holdings today, stated: 'First, acknowledge that market cycles are still effective. In the new phase where strong US stocks and crypto treasuries (DAT) and ETFs coexist, the consensus in the crypto circle has not been broken, coupled with a market easily manipulated. But on the flip side, if the crypto market enters a bear market, it is also the best time to position, just like our gains from positioning in the last bear market. The future is very bright, still bullish on the industry's next bull run opportunities, will continue to work hard on Building. Pessimists are correct, optimists win';
3. Trend Research, under Li Hua Yi, completely cleared its ETH holdings, with a total loss of approximately $688 million;
4. February 8th: According to Etherscan data, the number of Ethereum network transactions yesterday rose to 2,896,853, setting a new historical high;
5. February 10th: Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin posted an update this morning on his systematic thinking regarding the intersection of Ethereum and Artificial Intelligence, emphasizing that we should not chase AGI in an 'indiscriminate acceleration' manner, but should deeply integrate the values of crypto and AI to build an AI future conducive to human freedom, security, and decentralized collaboration;
6. February 9th: Even after Bitcoin rebounded to near $70,000, its derivatives market is still sending warning signals. Traders maintain defensive positions, with almost no signs of new long bets;
7. February 9th: (Duplicate entry removed) Even after Bitcoin rebounded to near $70,000, its derivatives market is still sending warning signals. Traders maintain defensive positions, with almost no signs of new long bets;
8. February 11th: According to an official announcement, LayerZero announced the launch of its Layer 1 blockchain network, Zero;
9. February 11th: According to a CoinDesk report, Lee Jae-won, CEO of South Korean crypto exchange Bithumb, stated that due to a lack of proper internal controls, the platform mistakenly transferred Bitcoin worth over $40 billion into customer accounts, when the intended distribution amount was only about $428. Most of the funds have been recovered;
10. Bithumb admitted that a severe internal system flaw led to it erroneously transferring approximately $40 billion worth of Bitcoin to customers. The mistake once caused Bitcoin's price on Bithumb to plummet 17%, prompted an investigation by South Korea's Financial Supervisory Service, and exposed deficiencies in the exchange's asset matching and account segregation controls. Although Bithumb has recovered most of the Bitcoin, 1,786 Bitcoin sold before the accounts were frozen remain unrecovered. This incident has heightened lawmakers' worries about weak regulation.

Macro Economy

1. February 10th: US December Retail Sales MoM recorded 0%, expected 0.4%.
2. February 11th: US January Unemployment Rate 4.3%, slightly below the expected 4.40%, previous 4.40%.
3. February 12th: US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending Feb 7 were 227K, expected 222K, previous revised from 231K to 232K.
4. February 13th: US January CPI (YoY, not seasonally adjusted) fell from 2.7% to 2.4%, hitting a new low since May 2025, market median expectation 2.5%;
5. February 13th: According to CME 'FedWatch' data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in March is 8.4%, and the probability of holding rates steady is 91.6%.

ETFs

Statistics show that during February 9th - February 13th, US Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net outflow of $358.9 million; as of February 13th, GBTC (Grayscale) has seen a total outflow of $25.909 billion and currently holds $10.713 billion. IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $52.522 billion. The total market capitalization of US Bitcoin spot ETFs is $90.458 billion.

US Ethereum spot ETFs had a net outflow of $161 million.

Foreseeing the Future

Industry Conferences

1. ETHDenver 2026 will be held in Denver, USA, from February 17th to 21st;
2. EthCC 9 will be held in Cannes, France, from March 30th to April 2nd, 2026. The Ethereum Community Conference (EthCC) is one of Europe's largest and longest-running annual Ethereum gatherings, focused on technology and community development;
3. Hong Kong Web3 Festival 2026 will be held in Hong Kong, China, from April 20th to 23rd, 2026.

Project Progress

1. Bitcoin miner Bit Origin's compliance extension lasts until February 16, 2026. If Bit Origin fails to regain compliance before this period, Nasdaq will notify Bit Origin in writing that it will be delisted;
2. Upbit will delist the Groestlcoin token GRS. Withdrawals will still be supported for 34 days from the termination of trading support (until February 19, 2026).

Important Events

1. Belgian bank KBC announced that starting the week of February 16th, it will offer cryptocurrency buying and selling services to private investors through its online investment platform Bolero;
2. February 19th, 21:30: The US will announce Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending February 14th (in thousands);
3. February 20th, 21:30: The US will announce the December Core PCE Price Index (YoY).

Token Unlocks

1. Starknet (STRK) will unlock 127 million tokens on February 15th, worth approximately $5.97 million, accounting for 4.61% of the circulating supply;
2. Sei (SEI) will unlock 55.55 million tokens on February 15th, worth approximately $4.12 million, accounting for 1.03% of the circulating supply;
3. Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock 92.65 million tokens on February 16th, worth approximately $10.08 million, accounting for 1.82% of the circulating supply;
4. YZY (YZY) will unlock 62.5 million tokens on February 17th, worth approximately $20.96 million, accounting for 17.24% of the circulating supply;
5. LayerZero (ZRO) will unlock 25.7 million tokens on February 20th, worth approximately $48.33 million, accounting for 5.98% of the circulating supply;
6. KAITO (KAITO) will unlock 32.53 million tokens on February 20th, worth approximately $10.25 million, accounting for 10.64% of the circulating supply.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core investment research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into your practical tool. We dissect market trends for you through 'Weekly Insights' and 'In-Depth Research Reports'; with our exclusive column 'Hotcoin Selection' (dual screening by AI + experts), we help you identify potential assets and reduce trial costs. Every week, our researchers also engage with you face-to-face through live streams, interpreting hot topics and predicting trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize the value opportunities of Web3.

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