Andrey Poroshin has presented a new forecast regarding Bitcoin's price dynamics in August.
Poroshin, a financial analyst at Bitbanker — an exchange operating in Russia, the UAE, and Kyrgyzstan — expects that the cryptocurrency market will experience a downturn this month, with prices retesting the $60k level against a backdrop of a lack of support from macroeconomic policy decisions.
He emphasized that the recent decision by the US Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged failed to influence the market in either direction, while inflation still exceeds the 2% target.
"Bitcoin is concluding July under pressure from moderate volatility and in the absence of new macroeconomic catalysts. The US Federal Reserve gave no positive or negative signals to the markets, so market participants remain cautious," stated Poroshin.
According to his base scenario, Bitcoin will fall to a level between $60,000 and $62,000, after which it will recover to the $70,000 mark — a level that remains below the US mining production cost, which has forced some miners to pivot towards AI-based data center businesses.
Nevertheless, he pointed to the winding down of BitMEX's operations as one of the catalysts for the upcoming price recovery, as the exit of weak players from the market "traditionally coincides with the formation of reversal zones and a reduction in short-term selling pressure."
In the foreseeable future, Bitcoin is not susceptible to geopolitical shocks, as the escalation of conflict between Iran and the US is losing its influence on the cryptocurrency market. Similarly, Poroshin does not anticipate any changes in August regarding the passage of the CLARITY Act, leaving the market still uncertain about its approval.
Finally, he forecasts that September will be a month of more active price fluctuations related to Fed interest rate decisions, as well as the potential discussion and passage of the CLARITY Act.
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