Bitcoin Bull Trap Early Warning, Bearish Logic Continues to Deliver Profits | Invited Analysis
Bitcoin Bull Trap Warning and Short Strategy Validation | Weekly Analysis
Last week's market analysis accurately warned of a bull trap, advising against buying into rallies and maintaining a bearish outlook. Bitcoin failed to break key resistance and subsequently declined, confirming the continued validity of the short-term bearish thesis.
**Key Performance:**
- **HYPE Short-Term Trade:** One long position (1x leverage) was executed, yielding a **4.41%** profit.
- **BTC Short-Term Trade:** One short position (1x leverage) was executed, yielding a **5.37%** profit.
- **BTC Mid-Term Trade:** A 60% short position from January 28th (entry ~$89,000) remains open, currently showing an unrealized profit of ~23.75%.
**BTC Outlook & Strategy:**
The analysis maintains that the rally from the February 6th low (~$60,000) is a C-2 wave counter-trend bounce within a larger corrective structure. A subsequent C-3 decline is anticipated, with a key trigger being a break below the $60,000 support. The market is expected to remain in a震荡调整 (volatile adjustment)格局.
- *Key Resistance:* $69,500-$71,500; $74,500-$76,000.
- *Key Support:* $65,000-$66,000; $60,000-$62,500; ~$57,400.
- *Strategy:* Mid-term short held. Short-term tactics focus on selling into resistance (Plan A) or selling breakouts below key support (Plan B), using 30% of equity with strict stop-loss rules.
**HYPE Outlook & Strategy:**
The hour-chart downtrend from the March 19th high is likely nearing its end. The key signal for a trend resumption will be a decisive break above the current consolidation range (Central C). This week is expected to see wide-range fluctuations.
- *Strategy:* Use 30% capital for short-term "spread" opportunities based on support/resistance levels, remaining agile and disciplined with stops.
**Risk Management Reminder:**
The article concludes with a critical reminder of core execution discipline: always set an initial stop-loss immediately upon entry, then trail the stop to breakeven at +1% profit, and subsequently lock in profits by moving the stop-loss up for every additional 1% gain.
*Disclaimer: All views and strategies are for informational purposes only and not investment advice. Market risk exists; invest cautiously.*
marsbit03/23 08:24
