BTC supply in profit eyes 60%, but analysis hints recovery may ‘roll back over’

cointelegraphPublished on 2026-07-27Last updated on 2026-07-27

Abstract

Bitcoin's overall supply in profit has rebounded sharply, approaching 60% in late July from a 2026 low near 46% in June. However, analysis from CryptoQuant cautions that this recovery remains fragile and not yet a confirmed bull market signal. For a sustained market bottom, key metrics require stronger confirmation: the 30-day average of the Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR) must stay above 1, and the supply in profit should exceed 64%. The market has already seen one false breakout in April-June where these conditions briefly met before rolling back over. Currently, the LTH-SOPR average has been below 1 for over 50 days, indicating long-term holders are still moving coins at an aggregate loss—a potential sign of lingering capitulation. While hitting the 50% supply-in-loss mark in June aligned with historical bear market bottoms, the current recovery in profitability lacks the durable onchain support from long-term holders needed to confirm a full trend reversal.

Bitcoin (BTC) investors are back in aggregate profit, but onchain data suggests it’s too early to confirm a new bull market.

Key points:

  • Bitcoin supply profitability is improving, but the trend must prove its staying power before confirming a market recovery, says CryptoQuant.
  • Supply in profit is now approaching 60%, up from its 2026 low near 46% less than a month ago.
  • Long-term holder onchain losses continue to dominate — a caveat in a bullish recovery.

Bitcoin profit metrics risk second false breakout

According to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, Bitcoin supply in profit rebounded above the 50% mark in July.

Bitcoin supply in profit. Source: CryptoQuant

“Bitcoin’s Supply in Profit (%), the share of Bitcoin worth more than its acquisition price, has climbed to 57.5% as of July 22, up from 46.2% on June 30, the 2026 low,” CryptoQuant contributor thechessONCHAIN summarized.

Bitcoin supply in profit data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

With nearly 60% of the BTC supply now in profit, the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) of long-term holders (LTHs) is also improving.

LTHs are entities whose Bitcoin has remained dormant for at least six months. SOPR measures the proportion of LTH coins moving onchain at a higher price relative to their previous transaction. Values above 1 indicate coins moving onchain mostly in profit, while values below 1 indicate LTH investors are moving coins at a loss, potentially indicating capitulatory activity.

ThechessONCHAIN explained that previous bear markets have only ended when both supply in profit and LTH-SOPR meet specific requirements.

The 30-day simple moving average (SMA) of LTH-SOPR should remain above 1 without falling below that level for weeks on end, while total supply in profit should be above 64%.

“This cycle already produced one failed attempt: from April 28 to June 1 the LTH-SOPR average held above 1.0 for 35 days, Supply in Profit reached 67%, and both rolled back over,” TheChessOnChain noted.

Since then, the 30-day SMA of LTH-SOPR has been below 1 for more than 50 days.

Bitcoin LTH-SOPR chart with 30-day SMA. Source: CryptoQuant

BTC investment recovery stays fragile

As Cointelegraph reported earlier, Bitcoin supply in loss crossed the 50% mark in June, a threshold that has historically preceded bear-market bottoms.

Related: Bitcoin will get ‘lift’ from Hyperliquid, Robinhood in next crypto bull market: Bitwise exec

Here, too, the data reveals similarities among Bitcoin bear markets, with the 50% loss mark sparking the final countdown to a BTC price cycle bottom in previous years.

Demand, meanwhile, appears mixed, with weak spot-market interest meeting a rebound in institutional BTC allocation.

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Related Questions

QWhat are the two key on-chain metrics mentioned that need to meet specific criteria to confirm the end of a Bitcoin bear market?

AThe two key metrics are: 1) The 30-day simple moving average (SMA) of the Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR) must remain above 1, and 2) The total Bitcoin supply in profit must be above 64%.

QAccording to the article, what percentage of the Bitcoin supply was in profit as of July 22, and what was the percentage at the 2026 low?

AAs of July 22, Bitcoin's supply in profit was 57.5%. At the 2026 low on June 30, it was 46.2%.

QWhat does a Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR) value below 1 indicate?

AA LTH-SOPR value below 1 indicates that long-term holder investors are moving their coins on-chain at a loss, which can be a sign of capitulatory activity.

QWhy does the analysis suggest the current recovery might 'roll back over'?

AThe analysis suggests a potential rollback because the current metrics have not yet met the sustained criteria for a confirmed bull market. Specifically, the LTH-SOPR 30-day SMA has been below 1 for over 50 days, and there was already one failed attempt earlier in the year where both metrics improved but then reversed.

QWhat historical threshold for Bitcoin supply in loss was mentioned as preceding bear-market bottoms?

AThe article states that Bitcoin supply in loss crossing the 50% mark has historically preceded bear-market bottoms.

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