On July 27th, Changxin Technology, the largest IPO (Initial Public Offering) in the history of the STAR Market, officially listed. At the market close, the stock price settled at 49 yuan per share, a rise of 465.82% compared to the 8.66 yuan per share issue price, with a total market capitalization of 3.28 trillion yuan. On its first trading day, it became the company with the highest market value on the A-share market.
Changxin Technology's stunning performance has brought substantial gains to the securities firms involved.
First, there are the underwriting and sponsorship fees. According to disclosures, the sponsor institutions and lead underwriters are China International Capital Corporation (CICC) and China Securities (CSC). There are four joint lead underwriters: Guotai Haitong, Guoyuan Securities, Huatai United, and China Merchants Securities. Based on the total fundraising of 66.6 billion yuan assuming full exercise of the over-allotment option, the estimated sponsorship and underwriting fees under the tiered fee structure are approximately 242 million yuan.
For securities firms, the more significant earnings come from follow-on investments and early-stage equity stakes. Among them, China Merchants Securities is the biggest winner. Based solely on the holdings of its subsidiary China Merchants Securities Investment, its floating profit calculated at the first-day closing price exceeds tens of billions of yuan. Furthermore, Huaan Securities holds approximately 0.44%, sponsor CSC holds about 0.15%, while CICC, Guotai Haitong, Guoyuan Securities, and others also hold varying proportions of shares.
However, on Changxin Technology's listing day, Huaan Securities' stock fell by 9.43%, and China Merchants Securities fell by 2.25%. Since July, Huaan Securities has already declined by 25%, and China Merchants Securities has fallen by over 11%.
An analyst from Guotai Haitong Securities believes that securities firms, relying on the 'investment banking + investment + PE (Private Equity)' model to deeply integrate with the technology industry, see technology and innovation investment as the third growth driver besides international business and wealth management.
"The direction of equity investment has now completely shifted from 'general PE-ization' to 'core hard technology' and 'investing only in hard technology.' Delving deeply into technological innovation and strategically positioning in national future industries has become the consensus across all market equity investment institutions," Guangfa Securities told Caijing.
China Merchants Securities' Floating Profit Exceeds Ten Billion Yuan
China Merchants Securities is undoubtedly the biggest winner among securities firms, having completed multi-layered investments through its platforms China Merchants Securities Investment (招证投资) and China Merchants Zhiyuan Capital (招商致远资本). After penetration calculation, the company indirectly holds a total of approximately 505 million shares of Changxin Technology, representing a pre-issue shareholding ratio of 0.84%.
Among these, the wholly-owned alternative direct investment subsidiary, China Merchants Securities Investment, directly holds 323.7 million shares of Changxin Technology, accounting for 0.54% pre-issue. Based on the closing price of 49 yuan per share, its holding value is 15.861 billion yuan. According to disclosures, China Merchants Securities Investment's capital contribution was 324 million yuan. This means that the floating profit from China Merchants Securities Investment alone reaches 15.5 billion yuan, with this portion of profit 100% attributable to China Merchants Securities.
Simultaneously, China Merchants Securities also made indirect investments through two industrial funds under its private equity platform, China Merchants Zhiyuan Capital, resulting in a combined post-penetration shareholding of 0.30%. The total capital contribution for these two funds is approximately 370 million yuan, and their floating profit will also reach several billion yuan. However, as the fund manager, China Merchants Securities only collects management fees and performance-based carry.
China Merchants Securities entered the investment in Changxin Technology relatively early, leveraging relatively low costs to achieve enormous returns. This single investment income exceeds the net profit for the entire year of 2025. In 2025, China Merchants Securities achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of 12.35 billion yuan.
The sponsor institutions, CICC and CSC, as mandatory follow-on investors acting as sponsors, also reaped substantial rewards. Both served as sponsors for Changxin Technology, earning sponsorship fees while gaining from follow-on investments. According to disclosures, CICC's subsidiary CICC Wealth and CSC's subsidiary CSC Investment participated in the mandatory follow-on investment, each receiving an allocation of approximately 115 million shares, with a maximum capital contribution of 1 billion yuan each. The lock-up period for the follow-on investment is 24 months from the listing date. Based on the first-day closing price, from the follow-on investment alone, these two securities firms achieved a floating profit of about 4.6 billion yuan each.
Additionally, CSC, through its wholly-owned subsidiary CSC Investment, holds approximately 88.96 million shares of Changxin Technology. CICC, through its wholly-owned subsidiary CICC Capital, operates multi-layered funds indirectly holding about 81,000 shares.
Huaan Securities, a medium and small-sized securities firm headquartered in Hefei, achieved substantial returns on its investment in Changxin Technology. Through its wholly-owned subsidiary Huaan Jiaye and its participation in an integrated circuit fund, it holds a total of approximately 264 million shares of Changxin Technology, representing a 0.44% pre-issue shareholding ratio. Based on the estimated market cost of 2.25 yuan per share, Huaan Securities' floating profit would reach 12.3 billion yuan. In 2025, Huaan Securities achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.108 billion yuan.
Furthermore, Founder Securities, Guotai Haitong, and Guangfa Securities all hold different proportions of shares.
Founder Securities adopted a multi-layered 'fund nesting' investment model: Hezhuang Hi-tech (和壮高新), managed by its subsidiary Founder Hesheng (方正和生), directly holds 76.6286 million shares of Changxin Technology. Founder Securities holds a 19.96% stake in this fund. Simultaneously, Hezhuang Hi-tech holds a 21.09% stake in Xinxin Lirun (鑫芯励润), which holds 639.7753 million shares of Changxin Technology. After layer-by-layer penetration calculation, Founder Securities ultimately holds a total of 42.227 million shares of Changxin Technology. Based on the July 27th closing price, the holding value is 2.069 billion yuan.
Guotai Haitong (Haitong Securities) completed its layout through a private equity platform. The subsidiary Haitong Kaiyuan Investment manages the Haitong Huiyin Equity Investment Partnership (海通徽银股权投资合伙企业), which directly holds 285.6297 million shares of Changxin Technology. Haitong Kaiyuan holds a 20% stake in this partnership. After penetration, Guotai Haitong indirectly holds 57.1259 million shares, with a holding value of approximately 2.8 billion yuan.
Guangfa Securities participated in the investment through its investment entity Guangzhou Xinde (广州信德). Guangzhou Xinde directly holds 167.6502 million shares of Changxin Technology. Guangfa Securities holds a 36.83% stake in Guangzhou Xinde. After penetration, Guangfa Securities holds a total of 61.7456 million shares of Changxin Technology. Based on the first-day closing price, the holding value is 3.026 billion yuan.
Securities Firms Are Optimistic About Changxin's Future Growth Potential
Regarding Changxin Technology's post-listing performance, multiple securities firms have provided optimistic outlooks.
From an industry perspective, according to calculations and forecasts by CITIC Securities, global DRAM (Dynamic Random-Access Memory) demand in 2026-2028 is expected to reach 40.9/50.6/62.2 billion GB, representing year-on-year growth of 21%/24%/23%. Among this, the combined direct demand from HBM and AI server CPU DRAM is expected to increase from 24% in 2026 to 32% in 2028, becoming the core driver of industry demand growth. On the supply side, overseas original manufacturers are prioritizing the allocation of advanced process nodes, cleanroom, and equipment resources to HBM. The construction of new wafer fabs is still constrained by cleanroom construction cycles, equipment delivery times, process verification, and yield ramp-up. It is estimated that the global DRAM supply-demand gap in 2026-2028 will be approximately 4.3%/5.7%/5.9%, respectively, and the supply shortage is expected to persist at least until 2028.
Information shows that Changxin Technology is China's largest, most technologically advanced, and most comprehensively positioned DRAM R&D, design, and manufacturing integrated enterprise. It owns three 12-inch DRAM wafer fabs and ranks first in China and fourth globally in terms of shipment volume and sales revenue.
Multiple securities firms stated that the global DRAM market has long been dominated by Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, with the three collectively occupying close to 90% of the market share. In the future, with Changxin's capacity expansion, product iteration, and accelerated domestic substitution, the global DRAM market structure is expected to shift from a 'triopoly' towards 'multiple players competing.'
According to the prospectus, Changxin Technology achieved revenue of approximately 50.8 billion yuan and net profit of approximately 33 billion yuan in the first quarter of this year. For comparison, SK Hynix's first-quarter revenue this year was 52.6 trillion Korean won, roughly equivalent to 250-260 billion Chinese yuan. Changxin Technology's first-quarter revenue is about one-fifth of that.
Zhongtai Securities stated that the size of China's DRAM market demand is estimated to account for about 34% of the global market. Based on Changxin's revenue share calculation, the domestic substitution rate in the first quarter of 2026 was approximately 23%. According to Trendforce, Changxin's revenue share increased to 7.7% in Q1 2026, while the revenue share of the three major original manufacturers was 90%. There is vast space for domestic substitution in the future DRAM market, with Changxin leading the wave.
According to the prospectus, 29.5 billion yuan of the listing proceeds will be focused on wafer manufacturing upgrades and cutting-edge technology R&D, aiming to break through high-end memory barriers and provide funding support for future product layouts like HBM. With the implementation of fundraising and capacity expansion, Changxin Technology is expected to generate significant industrial spillover effects, accelerating the large-scale adoption of domestic semiconductor equipment and materials, and will further drive the synergistic development of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, initiating a crucial process for the domestic memory industry's transition from import dependence to self-sufficiency and controllability.
"The start of each major memory cycle is driven by emerging technologies promoting product upgrades and innovation, thereby giving rise to increases in the total volume of new products, penetration rates, and the value of memory, pushing the memory market size to a new level. With AI driving demand increases, we are currently at the starting point of a new major memory cycle. We are optimistic about the long-term and substantial pull on memory demand after models and applications are deployed," said Guojin Securities.
This article is from the WeChat public account "读数一帜" (ID: dushuyizhi007), author: Zhang Xinpei.
