On-Chain Price Models Predict Possible Bitcoin (BTC) Bottom

CoingapePublished on 2022-09-02Last updated on 2022-09-02

Abstract

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to struggle near the $20,000 level amid rising volatility and market-wide pressure.

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to struggle near the $20,000 level amid rising volatility and market-wide pressure. Moreover, the U.S. Fed rate hike on September 21 will decide the market direction in the coming months. As per Wall Street experts, the Fed could go with another 75 bps hike in September to curb inflation that will likely push Bitcoin price below the $20,000 level.

Possible Bitcoin (BTC) Bottom Formation as per On-Chain Models

Bitcoin (BTC) price bottom can be predicted using various on-chain price models such as Realized price, Delta price, and Thermo price. However, the actual price movement also depends on technical and macroeconomic factors.

Realized price is the widely used on-chain price model to estimate a Bitcoin price bottom. It is the average price at which each Bitcoin in circulation last moved. Historically, Bitcoin has always bottomed below the realized price. If the BTC price declines further below the realized price, other price models are used. Currently, the realized price is $21,592.

Historically, the Bitcoin (BTC) price bottomed at the Delta price in the 2015 and 2018 bear market. Currently, the delta price is at $14,478. This indicates the BTC price could fall another 28% from the present level.

Thermo price signaled a market bottom in 2011. It is the historical price at which each Bitcoin were first mined. As per Thermo price, the Bitcoin bottom is $2,365. However, the price is less likely to fall to these levels in the current cycle as the number of addresses holding BTC has increased extremely.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Risks Falling to Lower Levels

The U.S. Fed rate hike will mostly depend on the August jobs data and the CPI data. As per the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 75 bps rate hike is 67%. Also, Wall Street banks expect a 75 bps hike in September.

According to the U.S. jobs data in August, the employment rate has decreased to 315k from July’s 528k. Moreover, the unemployment rate in August has increased to 3.7% from 3.5% in July. It is bullish for the Bitcoin market.

However, the CPI data on September 13 will mostly clear all doubts regarding the probable rate hike in September. A decreased in oil and food prices will slow the Fed rate hikes.

Historically, September has been a bad month for the U.S. equities and crypto markets.

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409 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

What is $BITCOIN

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