Claude Code神话破灭？大量用户正在取消订阅

marsbitPublished on 2026-08-20Last updated on 2026-08-20

Abstract

Claude Code的增长神话正在破灭。最新数据显示，其年度经常性收入（ARR）增速已从早期的狂飙断崖式下跌至5.2%，表明其爆炸式增长期已结束。增长停滞的原因包括目标程序员用户群体渗透率接近天花板，以及旨在开拓办公市场的“Cowork”功能因体验不佳未能成功破圈。 更严重的危机是用户“退订潮”的爆发。直接导火索是2026年8月初全球上线的“不可见文本水印”功能，该水印会悄无声息地嵌入所有Claude生成或处理的文本和代码中。这引发了程序员和文字工作者的强烈不满，担心自己的原创作品被“污染”，并可能引发法律与合规风险。此外，用户对严苛的使用额度、不稳定的模型性能以及高昂价格也日益不满。 与此同时，竞争对手OpenAI Codex正强劲反扑，其近期增长率是Claude Code的四倍，并接收了大量从Claude流失的用户。Codex以更宽松的限制、无缝的IDE集成、无水印策略和强大的企业销售网络获得青睐。Cursor等竞争对手也趁机发起补贴战，进一步侵蚀Claude Code的市场。 这一变化标志着市场从早期的概念炒作狂热进入冷静期。用户的核心诉求回归到工具是否稳定、好用且不增添麻烦。文章指出，Anthropic在技术层面虽强，但在产品运营和用户策略上表现傲慢，导致口碑反噬。若不能正视这些问题，即使手握Fable 5.1等技术王牌，也难以挽回用户。

Claude Code的增长神话,破灭了!

「Anthropic完蛋了,现在有大量用户正在疯狂取消订阅。」

开发者的一条X,引发了社区热议。

最新数据显示,Claude Code早期的爆炸式增长期,已经宣告结束。

如今,新用户呈个位数增长,老用户在疯狂倒戈。

CC的不少忠实用户,已经转向老对手OpenAI的Codex。

ARR增速暴跌至5.2%,狂飙暂停

今天,知名数据追踪平台TickerTrends发出最新报告,数据显示——

Claude Code的增长引擎已经明显「熄火」。

曾经,Claude Code有一条令人血脉喷张的增长曲线。

Claude Code的ARR在2026年2月12日时约为25亿美元;到了3月底狂飙至63亿;4月底突破103亿;到了6月,这个数字已经超过了140亿美元。

短短几个月,翻了近6倍!

这不仅是AI史上的奇迹,更是整个软件工业史上的神话。投资人沸腾了,整个科技圈都在惊呼。

但Claude Code的神话,终结于2026年的这个8月。

截至8月10日,Claude Code的追踪ARR停留在151.2亿美元。

乍一看,150亿的盘子依然庞大(占Anthropic总追踪ARR的21.9%),但如果看环比增速,这个数字已经断崖式暴跌至 5.2%!

5.2%意味着什么?对于一个处于风口浪尖的AI独角兽来说,这个数字,表明它已经提前进入了「传统软件」的低速增长期。

数据是不会骗人的,尤其是对于SaaS和AI订阅产品而言,ARR就是生命线。

正如科技评论人Orange AI所指出的那样:

Claude Code 的增长神话破灭了。

进入现实的苦哈哈个位数增长模式,程序员渗透的也差不多了,该去 codex 的也都走了,cowork 难用得不行也没吃下 work 市场太多。

为什么会涨不动了?

首先,程序员群体的渗透率已经逼近天花板。

从全球来看,愿意为高级AI编程工具掏钱的核心开发者的数量终究有限。该买的人都买了,增量从何而来?

其次,Anthropic原本寄厚望于改变广大白领工作流的Cowork,惨遭滑铁卢。

用户普遍反馈,Cowork难用得不行,完全未能如预期般啃下庞大的Work市场。

产品力没有跟上野心,破圈失败,自然只能在存量市场里内卷。

不可见水印惹众怒,大规模「退订潮」爆发

增速放缓只是内忧,更致命的外患,是正在社交网络上蔓延的「退订潮」。

这场退订危机的直接导火索,是2026年8月初全球上线的一项新功能——「不可见文本水印」。

据悉,Anthropic此举是为了应对欧盟日益严苛的规则。然而,此举把用户们惹怒了。

这个水印会悄无声息地嵌入到Claude生成或处理的所有文本和代码中,这让程序员和文字工作者们彻底炸毛了。

对于许多每月支付约100美元订阅Claude Pro/Max的高级用户来说,AI只是一个辅助工具。

他们可能会把自己的核心代码放进去让Claude帮忙找Bug,或者把几万字的机密文档扔进去做轻度润色。

现在,只要经过Claude的手,这些凝结着人类心血的原创作品,就会被永久打上「AI生成」的烙印。

在外媒专访中,多名愤然退订的用户表达了愤怒:「这会污染我们的作品!」

代码一旦被偷偷打上水印,独立开发者会面临大麻烦——辛辛苦苦给甲方交差,转头就可能吃官司、赔违约金。

大厂的程序员就更慌了,公司的核心代码库要是被AI水印给「污染」了,合规审计查下来,自己的职场前途都不保。

而且,水印还只是个导火索。

官方接下来的一波操作,负面Buff直接叠满,把大家的耐心按在地上反复摩擦。

比如,抠搜到家的额度。

跟OpenAI那边Tibo天天重置不同,Anthropic被喷得没办法了,把每周额度勉强提了50%(而且就到8月底)。

但对天天靠它干活的重度用户来说,这连塞牙缝都不够!写代码写到一半突然被限流的痛,谁懂?

另外,还有薛定谔般的模型体验。

之前被吹上天的神级模型Fable 5,6月上线之后就不断出幺蛾子。

在实际写复杂业务代码时,表现就跟抽盲盒一样,时而封神,时而智障,根本不敢完全信它。

既然价格死贵还疯狂割韭菜,那用户掀桌,也是分分钟的事。

OpenAI Codex的疯狂反扑

就在Claude Code深陷泥潭、用户大量流失的同时,它的宿敌——OpenAI Codex,正在疯狂吃肉。

TickerTrends的对比数据,简直是「冰火两重天」。

在截至8月10日的最近四周内,OpenAI Codex的环比增长率达到了恐怖的 20.8%, 足足是Claude Code(5.2%)的四倍之多!

Codex凭什么这么猛?答案很简单:它接收了大量从Claude过来的「难民」。

X平台上,大量开发者表示:因为水印和额度限制,自己已经取消Claude订阅,全面转向Codex。

Codex的限制更宽松,还有更无缝的IDE集成,没有让人恶心的隐形水印,以及OpenAI强大的企业级销售网络背书(目前Codex已占OpenAI企业级ARR的约45%)。

正如这条评论所说:「该去Codex的都走了」。这是用户在用脚投票。

甚至,刚被SpaceX收购的Cursor更打响补贴战,凭「退订Claude截图」直接送200美元顶配订阅。

Claude Code早期靠着超长上下文和惊艳的zero-shot编码能力建立的护城河,正在被OpenAI和Cursor用更好的产品体验和生态,一 点点 填平。

市场进入冷静期,打醒「AI自我进化」的幻梦

回头看今年五六月份,那时的Anthropic是何等的意气风发。

Fable 5模型刚刚发布,团队成员四处鼓吹新叙事:「AI已经具备了自我开发软件的能力。」「人类程序员的作用将被重新定义。」

在ARR狂飙突进的巅峰期,整个硅谷都沉浸在一种「AGI马上就要降临,我们正在造神」的狂热之中。

这种叙事极其性感,也极其容易让身在局中的人「飘飘然」。

然而,仅仅两个月后,现实狠狠地抽了这种高调叙事一巴掌。

当潮水退去,企业面临的冰凉的商业现实——

企业预算是有限的;算力是有限的;打工人的诉求也是很卑微的(只求工具好用、不搞幺蛾子、额度够用)。

用户真正在意的,是「你能别在我的代码里加水印吗?你能把每小时的消息限制放宽一点吗?你的Cowork功能能不能设计得像人用的东西?」

这正是目前所有AI超级独角兽面临的共同困境。

CC在技术底层上绝对是顶尖的,但在产品运营、商业化策略(如强推水印)、用户心理把握(如定价与限额)上,却像个傲慢的新手,口碑自然就反噬了。

真正把讨论推向刺痛点的,是资本与叙事层面的批判。

有人直言:Anthropic约2万亿美元的IPO估值简直荒谬,甚至高于SpaceX。

然而现实是,它不拥有任何硬件,没有真正的护城河,前景也并不光明。像SpaceX这样真正严肃的公司,其智能水平正在逼近、很快将超越这些模型,收入也会跟上。

至于IPO,更多人会把它当作快速抛售股份、实现体面退出的工具。

如今,市场已经从盲目狂飙期,进入了冷静期。

靠着概念炒作和早期红利能吃肉的日子,已经结束了。

虽然Anthropic还握着一张Fable 5.1的王牌,但如果还继续打水印,用户会买账吗?

最后送给Anthropic一句话:请好好做人,保持谦逊。

在增长时候不要太飘,因为你的衣食父母,随时都可能掀桌子走人。

参考资料:

https://blog.tickertrends.io/p/claude-code-vs-openai-codex-arrhttps://techcrunch.com/2026/08/17/anthropics-annualized-revenue-surges-to-65b/https://x.com/oran_ge/status/2090040293383082085

本文来自微信公众号“新智元”,作者:Aeneas 大卫

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Related Questions

Q根据文章，导致Claude Code用户大规模退订的直接导火索是什么？

A直接导火索是2026年8月初Anthropic在全球上线的“不可见文本水印”功能。该功能会悄无声息地嵌入到Claude生成或处理的所有文本和代码中，引发了用户对作品被“污染”以及可能带来法律和职业风险的强烈不满。

Q文章指出Claude Code的ARR（年化经常性收入）增速暴跌至多少，这被比喻为什么？

A截至8月10日，Claude Code的ARR环比增速暴跌至5.2%。文章将这个数字比喻为表明其已提前进入了“传统软件”的低速增长期，失去了风口AI独角兽应有的高速增长势头。

Q面对Claude Code用户流失，其主要竞争对手OpenAI Codex采取了哪些有利措施吸引了用户？

AOpenAI Codex凭借更宽松的使用限制（如额度）、更无缝的IDE集成、没有隐形水印，以及OpenAI强大的企业级销售网络背书，接收了大量从Claude Code过来的“难民”用户。

Q文章认为Claude Code增速放缓的内因有哪些？

A内因主要有两点：一是目标程序员群体的渗透率已逼近天花板，增量市场有限；二是Anthropic寄予厚望、旨在开拓白领市场的“Cowork”功能被用户普遍反馈“难用得不行”，产品力不足导致破圈失败，只能在存量市场内卷。

Q文章对当前AI市场的整体态势做出了怎样的判断？

A文章认为，市场已经从早期的“盲目狂飙期”进入了“冷静期”。靠概念炒作和早期红利就能成功的日子已经结束，用户开始更关注产品体验、商业策略的合理性等实际问题，对AI公司的傲慢叙事提出了挑战。

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Nonetheless, Doge Matrix seems designed to tap into the existing cryptocurrency ecosystem by encouraging user participation while tapping into the familiar cultural references associated with Dogecoin. Its potentially unique characteristics derive from community interactions rather than technological advancements, emphasising shared experiences and collaboration among token holders. While the exact innovations have not been explicitly outlined, the project appears to create a space where community members can engage, share ideas, and propel the project's potential forward. Timeline of Doge Matrix ($doge m) Reflecting on the project’s timeline reveals notable events that have defined its journey thus far: November 25, 2024: Doge Matrix reached its all-time high value, marking a significant milestone in its early history. January 1, 2025: Conversely, Doge Matrix hit its all-time low value, illustrating the volatility often associated with cryptocurrencies, especially in the early stages of a project's lifecycle. Ongoing: The project continues to be actively traded and supported by its community, although specific future milestones or objectives have yet to be disclosed. Key Points About Doge Matrix ($doge m) Community Focus At the heart of Doge Matrix is a commitment to community engagement. The project thrives on the premise of collaboration and shared objectives among its members, emphasising the importance of collective effort. Unlike centralised projects that often have a defined leadership structure, Doge Matrix at present showcases a more fluid approach to governance, where every community member's voice matters. Volatility The cryptocurrency market is notorious for its volatility, and Doge Matrix is no exception. Its price history reflects significant fluctuations between high and low values, which is typical of many new cryptocurrencies but underscores the risks associated with investment in emerging tokens. Lack of Detailed Information One of the most striking features about Doge Matrix is the scarcity of detailed information regarding its technological underpinnings and operational mechanisms. This ambiguity necessitates that potential investors conduct thorough due diligence before engaging with the project. Conclusion In summary, Doge Matrix ($doge m) illustrates a new wave of cryptocurrency projects that lean heavily on community engagement and cultural relevance. While lacking in certain specifics—such as clear leadership, defined objectives, and detailed functionality—the project has managed to generate interest within the crypto community, leveraging the established appeal of meme culture. As with any investment in the cryptocurrency space, understanding the inherent risks and conducting comprehensive research is essential for potential participants. Doge Matrix stands as a reminder of the dynamic, sometimes unpredictable nature of the crypto industry, marked by constant evolution and enthusiasm for community-driven initiatives.

676 Total ViewsPublished 2025.02.03Updated 2025.02.03

What is DOGE M

What is $M

Understanding Mantis ($M): A New Era in Cross-Chain Interoperability In the continually evolving landscape of Web3 and cryptocurrency, new projects strive to offer innovative solutions aimed at enhancing the user experience and expanding functional possibilities within the decentralised financial ecosystem. One such project garnering attention is Mantis ($M), a pioneering protocol founded on the principles of cross-chain interoperability and intent-based settlements. This article delves into the essential aspects of Mantis, including its core functionality, creators, investment backing, innovative features, and critical milestones. What is Mantis ($M)? Mantis is described as a multi-domain intent settlement protocol that simplifies cross-chain interactions, enabling users to execute complex financial transactions across various blockchain platforms seamlessly. The protocol operates through three primary layers: Intent Expression: Users can articulate their transaction goals using natural language facilitated by the DISE LLM, an advanced AI language model. For instance, a user might express a desire to swap Ethereum (ETH) for Solana (SOL) with a specific slippage tolerance of 1%. Execution: This layer employs a network of solvers that compete to fulfil user intents. Transactions are executed using mechanisms such as Coincidence of Wants (CoWs) and Order Flow Auctions (OFAs), which ensure that user demands are met optimally. Settlement: Leveraging the Inter-Blockchain Communication (IBC) protocol, Mantis enables atomic cross-chain transactions, allowing users to operate across various supported chains, including Ethereum, Solana, and Cosmos. Mantis is engineered to introduce native yield generation for idle assets, employing cryptographic proofs to maintain the integrity of transactions throughout the entire process. Creators & Development Team Mantis was conceived by the Composable Foundation, a research-driven organisation notable for its emphasis on blockchain interoperability solutions. This foundation collaborates with esteemed academic institutions, including Harvard University and the University of Lisbon, contributing to extensive research and development efforts that inform Mantis's architecture and functionality. The Composable Foundation’s commitment to fostering innovation in the blockchain space positions Mantis as a robust solution for the growing demand for interoperability among multiple blockchain networks. Investors & Backing While specific details about individual investors have not been publicly disclosed, Mantis enjoys substantial backing from various entities, including: Ecosystem grants from IBC-enabled chains, which support the protocol's growth and integration within decentralised finance ecosystems. Strategic partnerships with infrastructure providers that enhance Mantis's network capabilities and deployment strategies. Funding through the Composable Foundation's treasury, ensuring sustained financial support for ongoing development and operational costs. These collaborative efforts reflect a consensus among stakeholders about the importance of enhancing cross-chain functionality and the potential utility of Mantis's infrastructural innovations. Key Innovations Mantis sets itself apart through several pioneering innovations that enhance its functionality and utility: Chain-Agnostic Intents: Users can initiate transactions from any supported chain while settling on another. This flexibility empowers users, driving increased interaction among different platforms. AI-Powered Interface: The integration of DISE LLM allows users to conduct complex DeFi operations using natural language, thereby simplifying interactions and making blockchain technology accessible to a broader audience. Cross-Domain MEV Capture: Mantis creates an internal market for maximal extractable value (MEV) through competitions among solvers. This innovative approach allows for greater efficiency and value extraction in complex transactions. Modular Settlement Layer: The protocol supports various verification methods, including zero-knowledge proofs and optimistic rollups, providing a versatile framework that can adapt to emerging blockchain technologies. Historical Timeline Mantis's development is marked by several critical milestones that chart its trajectory and growth: | Year | Milestone | |————|————————————————————————-| | 2022 | Initial concept development within the Composable Foundation's research division. | | Q3 2024 | Launch of the testnet with bridging capabilities between Solana and Ethereum. | | Q1 2025 | Anticipated Token Generation Event (TGE) alongside the mainnet launch. | | Q2 2025 | Expected integration of DISE LLM and expansion of cross-chain capabilities. | | 2025 H2 | Planned support for over 15 chains through further IBC upgrades. | This timeline outlines Mantis's evolution, from conceptual discussions to active implementation and future growth phases. Ecosystem Growth Strategy Mantis's strategy for ecosystem growth includes several initiatives designed to encourage user participation and developer engagement: Credits System: Users can earn protocol credits by providing liquidity and engaging in referral programmes. These credits are redeemable for incentives in the future, fostering a robust user community. Modular Software Development Kit (SDK): This toolkit empowers developers to create applications based on intent-driven models utilising Mantis's infrastructure, thus promoting innovation within its ecosystem. Governance Model: As the protocol matures, $M token holders will have a voice in protocol governance, allowing them to vote on proposed upgrades and changes, thereby enhancing community engagement and decentralisation. Mantis represents a significant advancement in the realm of cross-chain architecture. By seamlessly integrating advanced AI algorithms with a robust settlement framework, Mantis seeks to tackle the problems of fragmentation within multi-chain ecosystems. Its innovative approach prioritises improved user experiences while adhering to the foundational principles of decentralisation and security, setting a new standard for the future interoperability of blockchain technologies. As Mantis continues its journey of growth and implementation, it promises to be a project to watch closely in the competitive landscape of Web3 and decentralised finance. With its focus on crossing boundaries and elevating user engagement, Mantis is poised to be an integral part of the future developments in the cryptocurrency space.

211 Total ViewsPublished 2025.03.18Updated 2025.03.18

What is $M

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