El interés abierto en perpetuos aumenta mientras los traders apuestan por un repunte de fin de año

cointelegraphPublished on 2025-12-23Last updated on 2025-12-23

Abstract

El interés abierto en futuros perpetuos de Bitcoin ha aumentado de 304.000 a 310.000 BTC, alcanzando un máximo de $90.000, según Glassnode. La tasa de financiación subió del 0.04% al 0.09%, indicando que los operadores apuestan por una subida a final de año mediante posiciones largas apalancadas. Sin embargo, Bitcoin retrocedió a $88.200, y las tasas elevadas podrían señalar sobrecalentamiento. El 26 de diciembre expirarán opciones por $23.000 millones, con calls concentradas en $100.000-$120.000 y puts en $85.000. El ratio put/call es 0.37, mostrando predominio de posiciones alcistas. El "max pain" está en $96.000, sugiriendo que muchos calls quedarán sin valor si el precio no sube.

Los mercados de derivados de criptomonedas se están calentando mientras Glassnode informa que el interés abierto en perpetuos ha aumentado en anticipación de un gran movimiento a finales de este año.

El interés abierto (OI) en perpetuos ha aumentado de 304,000 a 310,000 Bitcoin (BTC) mientras su precio tocó brevemente los $90,000 el lunes, dijo Glassnode el lunes.

La tasa de financiamiento también se ha "calentado" del 0.04% al 0.09%, lo que sugiere que los traders de derivados anticipan un posible movimiento del mercado para finales de año.

"Esta combinación señala una renovada acumulación de posiciones largas apalancadas, ya que los traders de perpetuos se posicionan para un potencial movimiento de fin de año", dijo Glassnode.

Los perpetuos de Bitcoin son contratos de futuros que no expiran y pueden mantenerse indefinidamente. Siguen el precio spot de Bitcoin a través de un mecanismo llamado tasa de financiamiento, que es un pago periódico entre traders que mantienen posiciones largas y cortas.

El aumento de la tasa de financiamiento señala optimismo

Cuando las tasas de financiamiento aumentan, normalmente significa que el precio del perpetuo está subiendo por encima del spot, y más traders son alcistas ya que están dispuestos a pagar primas para mantener posiciones largas.

Sin embargo, también puede señalar un posible sobrecalentamiento del mercado, ya que tasas extremadamente altas pueden indicar largos sobreapalancados y un posible riesgo de corrección.

Bitcoin no logró avanzar por encima de los $90,000 y había retrocedido a $88,200 al momento de escribir este artículo.

*Las tasas de financiamiento de los perpetuos de Bitcoin han aumentado recientemente. Fuente:* *Glassnode*

Gran vencimiento de opciones de fin de año

La volatilidad del mercado también podría amplificarse por el masivo evento de vencimiento de opciones de Bitcoin de fin de año el viernes 26 de diciembre.

Más de $23 mil millones en valor nominal de contratos de opciones de Bitcoin vencerán en uno de los eventos de vencimiento de opciones más grandes de todos los tiempos. Los vencimientos de fin de trimestre y fin de año son mucho más grandes que los eventos semanales o mensuales regulares.

Relacionado: Las criptomonedas tienen todo lo necesario para un mercado alcista, entonces ¿por qué está bajando el mercado?

Las calls, o contratos largos, se agrupan alrededor de los precios de ejercicio de $100,000 y $120,000, mientras que las puts, o contratos cortos, se concentran alrededor de $85,000, según Deribit.

El ratio put/call es actualmente 0.37, lo que significa que hay muchos más contratos largos por vencer que cortos. El máximo dolor, o el precio de ejercicio en el que se producirán la mayoría de las pérdidas, es actualmente de $96,000, según Coinglass.

Si los precios spot no suben, la mayoría de estos contratos no valdrán nada al vencimiento. Una brecha de $7,500 hasta el máximo dolor sugiere que las apuestas alcistas, o calls a strikes más altos, fueron demasiado optimistas y materializarán pérdidas.

*Hay mucho OI en precios de ejercicio más altos. Fuente:* *Deribit*

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