2024 年 12 月 NFT 销量达全年第二高,2025 年 NFT 有何上涨动力?

marsbitPublished on 2025-01-06Last updated on 2025-01-07

随着 2024 年接近尾声,12 月的非同质化代币(NFT)销售额攀升至 8.77 亿美元,成为当年第二好的月份。

基于区块链的数字藏品在 12 月表现强劲,销售额达到了 8.77 亿美元,使其成为 2024 年第二好的月份。这一增长为 NFT 市场动荡的一年画上句号,该市场在第四季度出现了显著复苏。

CryptoSlam 的数据显示,2024 年的 NFT 销售总额达到 88.3 亿美元,比 2023 年高出 1 亿多美元。尽管 1.1% 的增长看起来不算很大,但却凸显了市场在销量数月下滑后具备的反弹能力。

NFT

2024 年的 NFT 销售 | 来源:CryptoSlam

数据显示,12 月之所以表现突出,部分原因在于基于以太坊的系列,如 Pudgy Penguins、Azuki 和 Bored Ape Yacht Club。根据 NFT Price Floor 的数据,12 月以太坊 NFT 占据了总销售额的 4.884 亿美元。Pudgy Penguins 表现最为突出,交易量超过 2.85 亿美元,而 Lil Pudgys 与 Azuki 等其他系列合计又增添了 2.22 亿美元。

在接受 crypto.news 的评论时,NFT Price Floor 联合创始人 Nicolás Lallement 表示,NFT 市场在 “2024 年第一季度对 Ordinals(比特币)和 Solana NFT 系列都很强劲”,并进一步补充称,“以太坊系列重新定价早就该发生了”。

“作为这次重新定价的触发因素,我们看到当前的‘为 NFT 绑定代币’风潮。像 Pudgy Penguins、Doodles 和 Azuki 等项目要么已经推出,要么宣布了 meme/L2 治理代币计划,极大地引发了市场兴趣,并重新定价蓝筹 NFT。”
—— Nicolás Lallement


Lallement 指出,这种重新定价“不仅仅来自空投”,因为许多 NFT 持有者“已将从投机性 memecoin 交易中获得的利润转向长期价值投资,偏好优质系列。” 他表示,这一趋势在以太坊上尤其明显,因为其拥有最成熟的蓝筹系列。


“展望 2025 年,我预计这种效应会逐步传导给整个 NFT 生态系统。它很可能先从与空投挂钩的系列开始,然后扩散至以太坊上的蓝筹 PFP 系列、生成艺术(例如 Art Blocks),并最终覆盖 Solana 和比特币。”
—— Nicolás Lallement


NFT 市场在第四季度出现了真正的反弹。经历了第三季度仅 11.2 亿美元的艰难局面后,第四季度飙升 96%,达到 22 亿美元。11 月的 5.62 亿美元销售额为 12 月近 10 亿美元的表现奠定了基础。

行业专家将本轮反弹归因于加密货币市场日益增强的信心。例如,DappRadar 的研究人员指出,代币价格的上涨或许激发了乐观情绪,吸引了新的买家进场。DappRadar 的区块链分析师 Sara Gherghelas 认为,这种分化“可能归因于对优质系列(例如 Yuga Labs 出品)交易活动的重新活跃,以及代币价格的上涨。”


“对蓝筹系列的流动性改善与参与度提升,正不断强化收藏者与投资者的信心,他们现在不仅将 NFT 视为投机性资产,也视为文化商品。”
—— Sara Gherghelas 在一份报告中写道


仍远未达巅峰


尽管年底表现强劲,2024 年的 NFT 总销售额仍远低于市场巅峰时期的水平。2021 年,NFT 销售额达到了 157 亿美元,几乎是今年数据的两倍。次年更是高达 237 亿美元。

Lallement 认为,NFT 兼具高风险投机资产与地位象征的“独特定位”。他解释说,在牛市后期阶段,资产收益增加的参与者往往将注意力从投机性投资转移到数字艺术和藏品等地位资产上。


“这种行为源于人们想要炫耀财富并在圈子里获得认可的心理。要让 NFT 回到 2021–2022 年的高水平,我们很可能需要比特币达到一个显著价位(例如 15 万美元),以太坊也要创下新的历史高点(可能是此前数倍,或在 1 万美元左右)。”
—— Nicolás Lallement


一旦这些里程碑实现,Lallement 预计会出现“从同质化代币向部分 NFT 资产的资本轮动”。他认为,当市场参与者开始把收益转移到高价值系列时,可能会再次推动估值膨胀。“强劲的代币表现能够重振投资者信心,创造财富效应,并重新点燃人们对 NFT 的投机与文化需求,将其既视为投资,也视为地位象征。” 他总结道,并补充说这种动态可能会持续下去,使得 NFT 市场依旧随着更广泛的加密趋势而经历繁荣和萧条的轮回。

NFT

2024 年第四季度 NFT 活动 | 来源:Tiexo


根据 NFT 数据分析平台 Tiexo 的统计,Blur 和 OpenSea 是第四季度的两大顶级市场,几乎占据了全部 NFT 销售额的 70%。Blur 以 8.85 亿美元的季度销售额领跑,而 OpenSea 以 6.07 亿美元紧随其后。专注于 Solana NFT 的 Magic Eden 则录得 3.65 亿美元的销售额。

市场活动的多样化表明 NFT 生态系统仍在不断成熟,因此并没有单一平台或区块链占据完全主导地位。尽管以太坊仍在历史累计 NFT 销售中占据领先地位,但 Solana 与比特币的份额也在逐渐提升。

12 月的上涨让我们不禁好奇,NFT 接下来会如何发展。涨势会延续到 2025 年,还是会降温?我们可能很快就能知道答案,因为分析师预测比特币的上涨或将在 2025 年年中见顶,而这也可能对 NFT 市场产生影响。

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