Frontier Lab加密市场周报｜W32

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-08-09Last updated on 2024-08-09

Abstract

尽管近期美国经济衰退预期有所缓解，但宏观经济和地缘政治风险仍存。预计比特币在美联储降息前将继续宽幅震荡，投资者应保持谨慎，但可以留意反弹机会。

BTC 及 ETH 本周概况

市场表现

Frontier Lab加密市场周报｜W32

本周加密货币市场整体呈现“剧烈动荡”走势：

  • 比特币：受全球市场下跌影响，比特币在周一大幅下跌，但随着周二宏观数据的公布，市场情绪有所好转，比特币价格随之反弹。

  • 以太坊：同样在周一受市场暴跌影响迅速下跌，连环爆仓事件进一步加剧跌幅，尽管随后有所反弹，但幅度较小。

重点事件

美国经济衰退引发全球市场暴跌

  • 周一，日本股市暴跌并触发熔断机制，随后美股三大股指全线下跌，标普 500 指数最低达到 5119 点，道琼斯指数跌至 38499 点，纳斯达克指数下探至 15708 点。

  • 市场对美国就业数据低于预期的反应强烈，引发经济衰退担忧，导致避险操作和恐慌性抛售。但随着周中其他宏观数据的公布，市场逐渐恢复，开始反弹。

美国宏观数据

  • 美国 7 月 ISM 非制造业 PMI 达到 51.4 ，超过预期， 8 月初申请失业金人数下降至 23.3 万人，这些数据缓解了市场对经济衰退的担忧，促使市场逐步回暖。

  • 地缘战争不确定性增加

  • 上周哈马斯最高领袖在伊朗被袭击后，伊朗扬言报复以色列，虽然行动尚未实施，但中东局势的不确定性增加了市场的担忧，对全球市场形成压力。

美国民主党确定候选人

  • 拜登宣布不再竞选后，民主党推举现任副总统哈里斯为总统候选人。哈里斯与加密货币行业高管进行了初步接触，尽管未明确表态，但市场对民主党未来加密货币政策产生了新的期待。

Altcoin 本周概况

Frontier Lab加密市场周报｜W32

整体表现

本周市场情绪回升至 9.2% ，但仍处于极度恐惧区域，较上周的 12% 明显下降。此情绪变化主要源于上周五美国就业数据远低于预期，引发市场对未来经济衰退的担忧，导致本周一避险操作和恐慌性抛售，全球市场大幅下跌，Altcoin 普遍下跌超过 20% 。随着其他宏观数据的发布，衰退担忧有所缓解，市场开始反弹。然而，大多数代币的反弹幅度不及大盘，反映出投资者依然保持谨慎，对 Altcoin 的态度多持观望。

涨幅榜概况

过去一周市场代币涨幅前 5 名（未计入交易量过小的代币和 meme 币），数据来源：Coinmarketcap

Frontier Lab加密市场周报｜W32

涨幅榜并未表现出“板块集中”的特征，上涨代币分散于各个板块，分别隶属于 DEX、Depin、L1s、钱包和隐私赛道，市场依然处于反弹之中。

Meme 代币涨幅榜

Frontier Lab加密市场周报｜W32

数据来源：coinmarketcap.com

在本周一市场大跌后，Meme 赛道的跌幅尤为严重，项目跌幅均超过 30% 。尽管周二后随大盘反弹且力度超过其他赛道，但 Meme 代币的涨幅并未显著突出。

值得注意的是，Meme 题材的更新换代速度加快，这虽然表面上展示了其活力与潜力，但也暴露了其不稳定性和高换新率的隐忧，可能导致长期投资者信心不足，从而对赛道的持续增长形成挑战。

社交媒体热点

根据 LunarCrush 每日增长前五和 Scopechat 中 AI 得分前五的数据得出本周（8.3-8.9）统计数据：

出现次数最多的题材是L1s，上榜代币情况如下（未计入交易量过小的代币和 meme 币）：

Frontier Lab加密市场周报｜W32

数据来源 lunarcrush 和 Scopechat

从上表可以看出，本周社交媒体关注的L1s赛道项目涨跌幅度不一。虽然部分代币在大跌后反弹，但如果反弹力度低于大盘，且没有特殊事件影响，这可能反映出背后资金的力量较弱。

题材跟踪

Frontier Lab加密市场周报｜W32

数据来源：SoSo Value

  • 按周回报率统计，Payment 赛道表现最佳，而 RWA 赛道表现最差。

  • Payment 赛道：XRP 是该赛道的主力，占市值的 68.01% 。本周，Ripple 在与 SEC 的诉讼中获胜，法院判决 XRP 的销售不违反联邦证券法，裁定的罚款金额也较预期减少。这一利好推动 XRP 强势反弹，带动整个 Payment 赛道本周表现突出。

  • RWA 赛道：受美国经济衰退预期影响，本周股市和债市收益率下跌，导致主要连接现实资产的 RWA 赛道反弹力度最小，表现相对逊色。

下周 Crypto 大事件预告

  • 周二（8 月 13 日）FireNow：Asian Web 3.0 Institutional Summit

  • 周三（8 月 14 日）美国 7 月末季调 CPI 年率；Istanbul Blockchain Week 2024 

  • 周四（8 月 15 日）美国 7 月零售销售月率

  • 周五（8 月 16 日）OnChain Summit；ETHShenzhen 2024 峰会及黑客松

下周展望

  • 比特币：尽管近期美国经济衰退预期有所缓解，但宏观经济和地缘政治风险仍存。预计比特币在美联储降息前将继续宽幅震荡，投资者应保持谨慎，但可以留意反弹机会。

  • 以太坊：以太坊现货 ETF 资金持续流入，尽管短期内存在抄底机会，但长期风险仍存。以太坊预计将与比特币同步波动，投资者应谨慎看涨。

  • Altcoin：在本周暴跌后，Altcoin 有望迎来反弹，但涨幅可能较为有限。投资者应保持谨慎态度，关注市场变化。

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