Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, is trading just below the $65,000 mark, having gained 4% over the past week. While this fuels expectations for further gains for $BTC, one analyst has given a bearish forecast.
At this stage, veteran analyst and commodities trader Peter Brandt stated that the risk of a decline in Bitcoin's value has not yet dissipated, pointing out that downside risks persist, and warned investors of the possibility of a new downturn.
Brandt's latest assessment suggests Bitcoin could retest lower levels in the near term.
Veteran analyst Brandt asserts that the probability of further decline for Bitcoin is higher and that $BTC could retest the $58,000 level.
However, Brandt says he has not made final predictions regarding a drop, that he has not yet bet on a decline for $BTC, but if he were to, he would predict a fall.
On a chart shared by Brandt on X, he highlighted the $58,000 area as one of the most critical levels. This is because the analyst had previously indicated the possibility of Bitcoin falling to the $58,000–62,000 range in his previous analyses.
Brandt stated that $BTC could retest this region if the technical outlook deteriorates, and he believes selling pressure could intensify, leading to a retest of the $58,000 level, especially if the current chart breaks the downtrend line.
Earlier, in his analysis, Brandt claimed that a decline could occur after the formation of a head and shoulders pattern between April and June, and that $BTC could fall to around $58,000.
Bitcoin Reached a Critical Threshold: $57,600!
Brandt stated that a bearish trend for $BTC is more likely, and on-chain analyst Axel Adler also noted that a full capitulation for $BTC has not occurred.
Analyzing Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score, the analyst noted that this metric has significantly declined from its long-term average of 1.69, reaching between 0.40 and 0.41.
Although Bitcoin's value has fallen well below its historical average level, the market has not yet entered a classic phase of capitulation and bottoming.
At this stage, the analyst identified $57,600 as the key threshold where the market structure could deteriorate further. Adler considers Bitcoin's adjusted price of $57,600 a critical threshold for downward movement, stating that a drop below this level could further weaken the market structure and intensify selling pressure.
On the positive side, the analyst pointed to the $72,000 mark as a potential target for an upward move. The analyst claims that a sustained recovery above $72,000 for $BTC and a return to the MVRV Z-Score average of 1.69 could be an important signal for the start of a recovery.
*This is not investment advice.
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