SignalPlus宏观分析(20240531):MEME Coin再起波澜

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-05-31Last updated on 2024-05-31

Abstract

在经历了一个非常强劲的月份后,宏观市场进入休整模式,加密货币领域没有太多值得关注的内容,本周ETH的表现优于BTC约0.8% ,ETH的资金流入稳定但无亮点。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240531):MEME Coin再起波澜

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240531):MEME Coin再起波澜

在经历了一个非常强劲的月份后,宏观市场进入休整模式,即使经济数据疲软且美债收益率上升,SPX 指数在 5 月份上涨了近 3% 。过去几天,美国第一季度 GDP 出现显著下调(1.6% --> 1.3% ),消费大幅下降(2.5% --> 2% ),核心 PCE 也下调(3.7% --> 3.6% ),同时,中国经济数据也回到了老路, 5 月制造业 PMI 大幅下滑至 50 以下,明显低于市场预期(50.5),生产、需求、新订单、出口和进口普遍疲软,恒生指数也已从近期高点悄悄下跌了 5% ,本月基本持平。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240531):MEME Coin再起波澜

宏观方面缺乏明确信念,价格走势主要由月末再平衡资金推动,大宗商品和股票昨天大幅下跌,美国股市周四收盘下跌约 1% ,科技股如 Dell (-15% )、Salesforce (-20% )、甚至是 Nvidia (-4% ) 均出现大规模抛售。受再平衡资金影响,相较于 SPX 上涨 3% ,科技股已下跌近 9% ,技术指标显示股市在短期内可能进一步走弱。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240531):MEME Coin再起波澜

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240531):MEME Coin再起波澜

在固定收益方面,随着市场突然将注意力转向 Trump 可能的第二个总统任期,美债收益率曲线在过去两周显著走陡(从 -48 到 -38),尽管两位候选人都可能推行宽松的货币政策和财政扩张计划,但债券交易员更担忧 Trump 执政下的债券供应和通胀情况。

此外,尽管 Trump 因伪造商业记录被起诉且可能入狱,但美国 ABC/Ipsos 最近的一项民调显示,即使他被定罪,也只有 4% 的支持者会撤回支持,而 80% 的人承诺会继续支持,这与先前的一项民调一致,该民调显示 2020 年支持 Trump 的选民中有 94% 打算在 11 月再次投票给他,显示他的支持者基础极其忠诚,无论最终结果如何,这次的选举都注定充满争议。曼哈顿法院定于 7 月 11 日宣判,Trump 可能会对任何裁决提出上诉,在 11 月 5 日选举日之前,其他审判尚无确定的时间表。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240531):MEME Coin再起波澜

加密货币领域没有太多值得关注的内容,本周 ETH 的表现优于 BTC 约 0.8% ,ETH 的资金流入稳定但无亮点,而 ETH S-1 批准日期仍未知,市场“共识”认为最早在 7 月份。与此同时,原生用户已经开始转向 Shiba / Dogecoin 和 Pepe 等大型 memecoins,在近期平淡的市场情况中,这些币出现 10-20% 的涨幅。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240531):MEME Coin再起波澜

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240531):MEME Coin再起波澜

您可在 ChatGPT 4.0 的 Plugin Store 搜索 SignalPlus ,获取实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新,欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlus_Web3 ,或者加入我们的微信群(添加小助手微信:SignalPlus 123)、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群,和更多朋友一起交流互动。SignalPlus Official Website:https://www.signalplus.com

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