# Elections的所有文章

在 HTX 新聞中心流覽與「Elections」相關的最新資訊與深度分析。潘蓋市場趨勢、專案動態、技術進展及監管政策，提供權威的加密行業洞察。

Polymarket Is Not an All-Powerful "Truth Machine"

Polymarket, a crypto-based betting platform, is often hailed as a "truth machine" for its ability to aggregate crowd wisdom through financial stakes. While it has demonstrated remarkable accuracy in predicting major events like the 2024 U.S. presidential election—outperforming traditional polls—its overall reliability is highly inconsistent. Analysis using the Brier score reveals that its predictive power excels in high-liquidity domains like politics and economics but falls to near-random or worse in categories like sports, culture, and tech. The platform’s growing influence is concerning as its odds are increasingly cited by major media outlets like The Wall Street Journal and CNN, lending them an air of authority. This visibility creates a feedback loop where the odds themselves can influence the outcomes they are meant to predict—a phenomenon known as endogeneity. Moreover, the market is vulnerable to manipulation by well-resourced "whales" with access to exclusive information, such as private polls or even military intelligence, as seen in cases involving bets on geopolitical events. While useful for short-term, high-stakes events, Polymarket’s predictions are often unreliable for the vast majority of its contracts due to low liquidity and wide bid-ask spreads. The danger lies not in its occasional failures, but in the unchecked trust it receives—risking a future where a handful of traders can shape perceived reality through a platform masquerading as an oracle of truth.

marsbit前天 11:40

Polymarket Is Not an All-Powerful "Truth Machine"

marsbit前天 11:40

Crypto-Backed Super PAC Launches Midterm Election Endorsements Push

A crypto-aligned super PAC named Fellowship PAC, chaired by Tether's head of government affairs Jesse Spiro, has launched its 2026 midterm election push with over $100 million to spend. Its first action was a $300,000 ad buy supporting a Republican candidate in a Georgia congressional race. The PAC has also endorsed several other Republican candidates in key Senate and gubernatorial races across five states. This strategy mirrors previous crypto-backed efforts, like the Fairshake PAC, which spent heavily in the 2024 cycle. Meanwhile, major crypto legislation, the CLARITY Act, remains stalled in the Senate.

bitcoinist前天 10:02

Crypto-Backed Super PAC Launches Midterm Election Endorsements Push

bitcoinist前天 10:02

Interest Rates May Not Be Cut This Year

The article discusses how a war in the Persian Gulf, leading to Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, has driven up oil prices, with Brent crude surging from $70 to over $118 per barrel. This energy shock has pushed U.S. retail gasoline prices above $4 per gallon, contributing significantly to inflation. The CPI rose to 3.3% in March, the largest monthly increase since June 2022, with energy costs affecting broader sectors like food and logistics. As a result, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in 2026 has diminished. Market predictions now show a high probability of zero rate cuts, compared to pre-war expectations of multiple cuts. The Fed faces a dilemma between addressing inflation risks and supporting the economy. Politically, the situation poses challenges for President Trump and the Republican Party, as high inflation could impact the upcoming midterm elections. Trump's efforts to negotiate with Iran have stalled due to irreconcilable demands, and Iran's拖延 tactics may further strain U.S. economic and political stability. The article concludes that the prolonged conflict and sustained high oil prices could keep inflation elevated, delaying any monetary easing.

marsbit04/14 02:03

Interest Rates May Not Be Cut This Year

marsbit04/14 02:03

World's Largest Prediction Market Polymarket Begins Charging Fees! Behind It Lies a Calculated Game of Regulation, Survival, and Timing

Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market platform, has begun charging fees on its "15-minute crypto price move" markets, with rates up to 3%. This move follows its recent approval as a Designated Contract Market (DCM) by the U.S. CFTC, a pivotal regulatory milestone after a 2022 enforcement action forced it to exit the U.S. market and pay a fine. For six years, Polymarket operated with zero fees to build liquidity, establish itself as a default pricing source for events like elections and sports, and accumulate valuable data. The new fee structure, which dynamically adjusts based on market certainty and rewards market makers, is a strategic shift from growth to sustainable operation. While the platform has seen significant traction—with election period volumes hitting $2.7 billion—it continues to face regulatory challenges globally, including recent cease-and-desist orders from states like Tennessee and bans in countries like Japan and China. Polymarket's future depends on balancing innovation with compliance, expanding carefully across jurisdictions, and monetizing its unique, crowd-sourced probability data.

marsbit04/04 07:04

World's Largest Prediction Market Polymarket Begins Charging Fees! Behind It Lies a Calculated Game of Regulation, Survival, and Timing

marsbit04/04 07:04

Nearly $300 Million Aimed at U.S. Midterm Elections, Tether Executive Takes Helm of Crypto Industry's Second-Largest Political Fund

A crypto super PAC named Fellowship, which claims to have raised over $100 million but has reported zero spending to the FEC, has appointed Jesse Spiro, Tether’s VP of Regulatory Affairs, as its chairman. This marks the first official public link between Tether and the PAC, despite earlier denials. Meanwhile, another major crypto PAC, Fairshake—backed by Coinbase, Ripple, and a16z—has amassed $193 million and has already spent over $8.6 million in Illinois primary races. Combined, the two PACs control nearly $300 million aimed at influencing the November midterm elections. The move comes as the crypto industry faces a critical legislative battle over the CLARITY Act, currently stalled in the Senate. A key point of contention is whether stablecoins can pay yields to users—a issue directly affecting Tether, the issuer of the world’s largest stablecoin, USDT. A recent Senate proposal would ban passive yield but allow transaction-based rewards, a compromise the industry finds too restrictive. With the White House’s top crypto advocate departing and the legislative window narrowing, Tether’s heightened political engagement signals a strategic push to shape regulation and protect its business interests through financial influence.

marsbit04/03 05:08

Nearly $300 Million Aimed at U.S. Midterm Elections, Tether Executive Takes Helm of Crypto Industry's Second-Largest Political Fund

marsbit04/03 05:08

Nearly $300 Million Aimed at U.S. Midterm Elections, Tether Executive Takes Helm of Crypto Industry's Second-Largest Political Fund

A crypto super PAC named Fellowship, which claims to have raised over $100 million but has yet to spend any funds, has named Jesse Spiro, Tether’s VP of Regulatory Affairs, as its chairman. This marks the first official public link between Tether and the PAC. Meanwhile, another major crypto PAC, Fairshake—backed by Coinbase, Ripple, and a16z—has amassed $193 million. Combined, the two PACs are directing nearly $300 million toward the upcoming U.S. midterm elections. Fellowship, formed in August 2025, had previously drawn speculation over its undisclosed donors and lack of activity. Federal Election Commission records show no reported donations or expenditures as of December 2023. Spiro’s appointment signals a more public role for the group, which plans to soon announce its first candidate endorsements. The move comes amid a legislative standoff in the Senate over the CLARITY Act, which includes contentious provisions on stablecoin yield payments—a key issue for Tether, the issuer of USDT. With critical crypto legislation at stake and the White House’s top digital assets adviser role now vacant, the industry is ramping up political spending to influence regulatory outcomes.

marsbit04/02 06:14

Nearly $300 Million Aimed at U.S. Midterm Elections, Tether Executive Takes Helm of Crypto Industry's Second-Largest Political Fund

marsbit04/02 06:14

Texas targets crypto, gambling loopholes amid prediction market concerns

Prediction markets have gained significant attention, particularly during the U.S. election cycle, but the rise of gambling within these markets has eroded public trust. In response, Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick is pushing for legislative changes to close gambling loopholes. He aims to prevent the exploitation of federal regulations, such as those of the CFTC, to bypass state gambling prohibitions. The goal is to ensure the integrity of elections and sports in Texas. Additionally, Patrick advocates for assessing the state’s approach to emerging financial technologies, including crypto, while prioritizing consumer protection and addressing issues like crypto ATM scams. The move coincides with a decline in public interest in prediction market gambling, as shown by Google Trends data.

ambcrypto04/01 17:28

Texas targets crypto, gambling loopholes amid prediction market concerns

ambcrypto04/01 17:28

Prediction Markets Hit Record Highs As Bets Explode On Global Conflict

Prediction markets are experiencing unprecedented growth, driven by automated AI agents and high-frequency trading bots that extracted approximately $40 million from market inefficiencies in a single month. These markets are increasingly dominated by bets on geopolitical events, such as the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, and major political events like the 2028 US Presidential primary, rather than cryptocurrency prices. TRM Labs reported a 2,800% year-over-year increase, with March 2026 seeing 191 million transactions totaling nearly $24 billion. This surge has attracted regulatory scrutiny over potential insider trading, leading to bipartisan efforts to ban "casino-style" event contracts. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are implementing internal restrictions to preempt stricter regulations, as the industry balances its role as a forecasting tool with concerns over speculation on global conflicts.

bitcoinist03/31 02:31

Prediction Markets Hit Record Highs As Bets Explode On Global Conflict

bitcoinist03/31 02:31

Mag 7 Evaporates Two Trillion｜Rewire Morning News Brief

Two major conflicts are converging as Ukraine's drone attacks disable 40% of Russia's oil export capacity, while Russia equips Iran with advanced AI drones featuring Starlink communications. This signals merging global risk networks. Concurrently, the Magnificent 7 tech stocks have lost over $2 trillion in value, with markets now pricing in a potential interest rate hike this year as inflation concerns persist. A sector rotation from growth stocks to energy and defense is underway. In AI developments, Anthropic is privately warning US officials that its unreleased "Mythos" model could make large-scale cyber attacks significantly more likely by 2026, representing a leap in AI-powered offensive capabilities. Additionally, Eli Lilly makes a landmark $2.75 billion bet on AI drug discovery through a partnership with Insilico Medicine, aiming to compress drug development timelines from years to months. Other notable developments include US stablecoin regulation advancing, Musk warning that AI's growth is limited by power supply constraints, and AI policy becoming an independent issue in US midterm elections.

marsbit03/30 05:29

Mag 7 Evaporates Two Trillion｜Rewire Morning News Brief

marsbit03/30 05:29

Coinbase-Backed Stand With Crypto Discloses Political Plan For 2026 Midterm Elections

Coinbase-backed advocacy group Stand With Crypto has announced its first endorsements for the 2026 U.S. midterm elections and launched an online voter hub to mobilize pro-crypto voters. The group endorsed six incumbent lawmakers from both major parties and will focus on competitive House races where crypto issues may be decisive. The voter hub provides information on candidates' positions, including scorecards based on public statements and legislative records. With over 2.7 million advocates, the group aims to turn crypto supporters into a influential voting bloc. A survey revealed that 59% of crypto owners are swing voters, and 80% are highly motivated to vote. Nearly two-thirds would support candidates backing the crypto industry, and 74% favor those supporting clearer regulations.

bitcoinist03/27 10:52

Coinbase-Backed Stand With Crypto Discloses Political Plan For 2026 Midterm Elections

bitcoinist03/27 10:52

活动图片

熱門分類right-arrow

熱門標籤right-arrow

Bitcoin

Regulatory Policy