Key Takeaways
Bitcoin’s 7.22% July rally echoes post-halving trends, but Wyckoff signals hint at institutional distribution. Altcoin Season Index is rising, suggesting capital is rotating into altcoins.
Historically, Q3 tends to kick off a bullish stretch for Bitcoin [BTC] in halving years—a period when miner rewards for securing the blockchain are reduced.
This pattern has held true in 2013, 2017, and 2021.
Each of those years began with a July rally, followed by another leg up in August. This year may follow suit. BTC gained 7.22% in July, and if history rhymes, August could add even more.
Source: X
Still, not all analysts are convinced.
Analyst Benjamin Cowen warned that if a rally plays out this month, it may be followed by a seasonal pullback in September. He adds that October could bring the next major upside move.
A new all-time high in sight?
Chart analysis suggests Bitcoin could be gearing up for a new all-time high.
In prior post-halving years, August returns averaged 43%, with gains of 30%, 77%, and 22% respectively. A similar move could push Bitcoin to $162,000, based on current price levels.
Source: TradingView
With little significant resistance overhead, Bitcoin has a relatively clear path to the upside, adding to broader market optimism.
João Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, sees a more cautionary picture, arguing that Bitcoin is deep into the distribution phase of the Wyckoff pattern.
He says BTC has moved through all 13 stages, typically leading to a sell-off, though he frames this as potentially short-term.
Source: X
Interestingly, João notes that capital rotation into altcoins is already underway.
“BTC’s performance is likely to be weak or modest from here. Altcoins, however, are gearing up for a structural markup.”
BTC’s recent price action supports that view. On Friday, the 1st of August, it closed at $112,000—its lowest level since the 10th of July—after falling below $117,000.
This decline, João notes, may reflect institutional sell pressure.
Will Bitcoin’s dip fuel an altcoin rally?
AMBCrypto’s review of the Altcoin Season Index showed a move from 32 to 34 in this week, indicating rising altcoin inflows, per CoinMarketCap data.
If the index continues higher, it could confirm growing market rotation and lend further support to the altcoin thesis.
Source: CoinMarketCap
Several altcoins—including MemeCore [M], Pudgy Penguins [PENGU], SPX6900 [SPX], and Conflux [CFX]—have posted 60%+ gains over the last 90 days.
The broader altcoin market cap sits at $1.39 trillion, with upside momentum building.
If BTC stalls or pulls back in September—as past halving cycles suggest—altcoins may emerge as the surprise winners of Q3.
