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Overview
While no decisive breakout has occurred, several metrics suggest conditions are gradually improving beneath the surface.Momentum is attempting to rebuild. RSI has lifted off recent lows but remains below the neutral 50 threshold, signalling recovery without full bullish control.
Spot CVD has improved materially, reflecting reduced aggressive selling, while futures CVD remains net negative, pointing to continued caution in leveraged markets. Open interest has edged lower, suggesting modest de-risking rather than fresh speculative expansion.
Options markets present a mixed picture. Volatility spread remains deeply negative, implying complacent implied volatility relative to realised moves, yet 25-delta skew has pushed above its upper band, signalling elevated downside hedging demand. Funding rates have cooled sharply, highlighting reduced appetite for leveraged long exposure.
On-chain activity shows constructive undertones. Daily active addresses and transfer volume have picked up, while transaction fees have risen in line with healthier network usage. However, realized cap change remains negative and NUPL stays firmly in loss-dominant territory, underscoring that broader capital flows and investor profitability remain fragile.
Positioning metrics reinforce a balanced but cautious structure. The STH/LTH ratio remains slightly elevated, hot capital share has declined meaningfully, and percent supply in profit continues to sit near the lower end of its historical range. Collectively, this points to a market transitioning from distribution pressure toward stabilisation, but without clear confirmation of sustained bullish expansion.
Overall, the backdrop reflects early-stage recovery dynamics within a still fragile environment. Momentum and activity are improving, yet conviction remains muted across derivatives, options, and capital flow metrics.
Off-Chain Indicators
On-Chain Indicators
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Disclaimer: This report does not provide any investment advice. All data is provided for information and educational purposes only. No investment decision shall be based on the information provided here and you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.
Exchange balances presented are derived from Glassnode’s comprehensive database of address labels, which are amassed through both officially published exchange information and proprietary clustering algorithms. While we strive to ensure the utmost accuracy in representing exchange balances, it is important to note that these figures might not always encapsulate the entirety of an exchange’s reserves, particularly when exchanges refrain from disclosing their official addresses. We urge users to exercise caution and discretion when utilizing these metrics. Glassnode shall not be held responsible for any discrepancies or potential inaccuracies.
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