I. Macro Economy & Traditional Financial Markets (Macro)
1 U.S. Employment Data and the Impact of AI on Jobs
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 115,000 in April, superficially higher than expectations, but market doubts exist regarding data quality. Job growth is heavily reliant on the healthcare industry, which added approximately 618,000 jobs over the past year, while other sectors combined saw a decrease of about 367,000 jobs; manufacturing employment also turned negative for the first time this year, indicating a deepening structural divergence in the labor market.
The strong April nonfarm payrolls were significantly influenced by the "Business Birth/Death Model." This model contributed a positive adjustment of approximately 391,000 jobs in April, implying that part of the job growth is more a model estimate than actual survey results. In contrast, the household survey showed a decrease of about 226,000 in actual employment in April. This clear divergence between the two surveys has heightened market skepticism about the reliability of the employment data.
Attention is beginning to turn to AI's impact on employment. Information sector jobs decreased by about 30,000 in April and have been declining consistently this year, sparking discussions about "AI replacing jobs." However, the U.S. unemployment rate remains around 4.3%, making it difficult to conclude that AI has yet exerted a systemic impact on the overall labor market. Future observation is needed to see if new demand can absorb the displaced workforce.
2 Crude Oil Market and Geopolitics
Oil prices have recently hovered around $100 per barrel. The global available crude oil buffer inventory is about 800 million barrels, of which approximately 300 million barrels have been drawn down by the end of April, providing support for prices from the inventory side. However, high oil prices are also clearly suppressing demand, with global daily oil demand falling by about 2.8 million barrels and 4.3 million barrels in March and April, respectively.
China has played a "ballast" role in this round of oil price movements. Its current crude oil reserves stand at about 1.4 billion barrels. In April, China significantly reduced crude oil imports, cutting daily imports by about 3.5 million barrels to the lowest level since 2024. By pausing or slowing its stockpiling, China has somewhat eased global crude oil supply-demand tensions and also restrained further oil price increases.
Regarding U.S.-Iran relations, the probability of a phased memorandum of understanding agreement this month is relatively high, likely centering on keeping the Strait of Hormuz open, reducing conflict risks, and curbing oil prices. Maintaining controllable short-term situations and avoiding runaway oil prices aligns with the interests of both parties.
3 Short-, Medium-, and Long-Term Analysis of AI Tech Stocks
In the short term, AI tech stocks face mixed signals. Positive factors include potential marginal easing in China-U.S. trade relations and improved market risk appetite if the U.S. and Iran reach a phased agreement. Negative factors stem from potential index weight adjustment pressures. If SpaceX lists in June and is included in the Nasdaq-100 Index, passive funds may need to sell top-five weighted tech stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft to make room, creating temporary liquidity pressure on AI leaders. However, lower-ranked constituent stocks like Micron (MU) might benefit.
In the medium term, the mid-July earnings season will be a crucial validation point for AI tech stocks. The market's valuation framework for AI stocks is entering a "second half," shifting from thematic narrative-driven to placing greater emphasis on AI ROI (return on investment), commercialization efficiency per unit cost, and actual profitability.
In the long term, year-end could pose a significant test for the AI bubble. U.S. elections may bring policy disruptions. If trillion-dollar valuation AI application companies like OpenAI and Anthropic initiate IPOs, they could also drain liquidity from the secondary market. Meanwhile, if corporate capital expenditures persistently exceed their own cash flows and rely on debt financing, AI stocks may enter the late stage of a bubble and face stress tests similar to those in the later stages of the internet bubble.
II. Crypto Market Trends & Ecosystem
1 Market Overview and Trading Data
The Crypto market has recently been primarily driven by a recovery in overall market risk appetite, showing a mild bullish trend. BTC price rose from around $77,000 last week to approximately $82,000. While spot trading volume has rebounded somewhat, it remains relatively low; the CVD indicator shows strong performance, indicating clear active buying intent on the spot side, with buying power dominating.
Looking at the futures side, open interest has increased with the price rise, but perpetual swap funding rates remain negative, suggesting that some funds in the market are still persistently taking short positions, mainly focused on altcoins or the ETH direction. In the options market, investors' willingness to buy Puts for downside protection has decreased, bearish demand has retreated, and bullish sentiment is spreading. The overall structure suggests that this round of gains may have moved from the early stages to the mid-phase, but attention is still needed on whether subsequent trading volume can expand.
Regarding large capital flows, ETFs continued net inflows last week, amounting to approximately $791 million. BMBMR purchased about 26,000 ETH, below the market's previously expected baseline of 70,000; Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) made a small purchase of 535 BTC, with an average purchase price around $80,000. Overall, institutional buying momentum persists but appears more moderate than expected.
2 Stablecoin & Institutional Chain Launch Trends
Circle's recent earnings report showed revenue falling short of expectations, but its stock price performance has been relatively resilient, indicating the market still recognizes its long-term narrative. Meanwhile, Circle's self-built public chain ARC secured a financing valuation of about $30 billion, further solidifying the trend of stablecoin issuers extending into underlying infrastructure.
The industry is forming a dual-track arbitrage model of "listing + token/chain launch." On one hand, projects achieve compliant status, access traditional capital market funds, and gain credit endorsement through listing a traditional entity. On the other hand, they build a public chain and issue tokens through another entity to capture Crypto market liquidity, enjoying a dual premium from equity valuation and token valuation.
Circle has provided a relatively clear demonstration effect. Subsequently, other projects with user bases, payment scenarios, or social ecosystems are likely to follow a similar path. For example, the probability of ecosystems related to Telegram, PM, and other projects launching chains or tokens to capture on-chain liquidity in the future is rising. Stablecoins, payment networks, and institutionally-built chains may become important structural opportunities in the next phase of the Crypto market.
This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment involves high risks. Please fully assess your own risk tolerance and implement strict risk management before trading.
