[Key interpretation] BTC whale seems to have completed the purchase, and the ETH address number indicates an abnormal signal

Huobi Research发布于2022-08-08更新于2022-08-09

文章摘要

At the critical moment of BTC, the disc changes upward, and the important pressure level has been given.

1. BTC short line retraction, urgent need to pull up the variable disk once

In the daily K-line chart, the BTC short-term contraction for two consecutive trading days indicates that the price can not maintain the current change of hands. If BTC fails to change its position in the short term and the price increase is limited, more selling pressure will suppress the price increase. At present, BTC needs to pull up the market once, so as to undertake the market entry energy of recent investors. In the past month, BTC's spot trading volume has remained at a high level. Meanwhile, more turnover orders have been accumulated in the chain trading volume, which means that BTC has strong shock demand. If the current price trend can be maintained, it is expected that there will be a continuous performance opportunity on the increase.

2. The transaction volume on the chain remained stable

BTC's online trading volume is very strong. The online trading volume in the recent five trading days is very stable, which is the most stable interpretation of the average online trading volume after June 20. That is to say, BTC's online trading volume is very active at present, and investors' transfer frequency is very high, which means that the support for the price is still effective. Judging from the transfer direction, it is relatively difficult to judge the trading intention of investors. However, judging from the activity, BTC can still maintain the current fluctuation rhythm.

3. The number of large value transactions continued to decline

The number of large value transactions of BTC continued to retreat, and the current value has dropped to 64 on August 7, indicating that the price may continue to fluctuate and strengthen in the short term. The decrease in the number of major large transactions means that the dominant power of the giant whale traders to the market is weakened, and BTC is in a stage of having to change its market. Judging from the number of large transactions of BTC, the current number of large transactions is near the low level of the year. Looking back at the performance of large-scale transactions in the past year, it is more likely that the market will continue the current trend after the number of large-scale transactions decreases.

At present, the short-term trend of BTC price is in a rebound state, and there is no change in the medium and long-term callback trend. In terms of rebound pressure level, focus on the selling performance of US $28308 corresponding to 61.8% of Fibonacci.

4. Eth trading volume continues to be depressed

The shrinking trend of the trading volume of eth is relatively clear, and the trading volume has been at the low level in the past three months, indicating that the trading boom caused by the accelerated decline of eth has been cooling down. Based on this judgment, ETH clearly needs to pull up the bulls under the key pressure level of 61.9% Fibonacci corresponding to US $1910, so as to further confirm the strong price. In terms of operation, it is clear that the opportunities for buying eth at a low price are significantly reduced, the market uncertainty is enhanced, and the trading level is aware of risks.

5. The activity of eth sending address is strong

The number of addresses sending eth shows signs of activity. Through judging the activity on July 26 and August 4, the number of active addresses on the two trading days can reach 799000 and 599000 respectively. The number of active addresses corresponding to the same period can reach 934000 and 734000 as a whole.. In other words, the number of active addresses is more than the number of addresses that send eth, and the activity increases sharply. Although the trading intention of sending eth is unknown, more eth addresses may be sold. In terms of trading, we can pay attention to the risk of price pullback in the near future.

你可能也喜欢

埃里克·特朗普设定一个“超越灾难”的标准来出售比特币——我们离那有多远?

埃里克·特朗普(Eric Trump)作为美国比特币公司(American Bitcoin Corp.)的联合创始人兼首席战略官,近日在接受采访时明确了他的比特币出售条件——门槛被设定为“超越灾难性”的事件。这意味着,在几乎所有可预见的市场情景下,他都不会出售比特币,这更像是一个长期持有的哲学承诺,而非风险管理政策。 特朗普指出,比特币储备领域存在两场竞赛:一是争夺最大比特币持有量,二是追求最低获取成本。出售比特币会立即在第一场竞赛中失利,并破坏第二场竞赛的逻辑。该公司的核心指标是提升“每股聪数”,即每流通股所代表的比特币数量,而出售会稀释这一指标。只有持续挖矿并保留比特币,才能使积累模型发挥作用。 特朗普赞扬了迈克尔·塞勒(Michael Saylor)在比特币储备领域的开拓作用,但也指出了关键区别:塞勒近期暗示微策略(MicroStrategy)可能出售部分比特币用于支付股息,显示出积累模型的一定灵活性;而美国比特币公司则通过挖矿以声称低于现货约53%的成本获取比特币,并严格执行“永不卖出”的策略。对于一家矿业一体化的储备公司而言,这种不卖出的立场在运营上更具可信度,因为其新增比特币的边际成本更低,资产负债表变现压力也更小。 目前比特币价格约为82,000美元,美国比特币公司持有超过7,000枚比特币,并继续执行其创始人公开描述的、近乎无条件的积累战略。他的“超越灾难性”出售门槛,为本周期内上市公司高管最明确的长期积累承诺树立了标杆。市场最终会奖励这种信念还是惩罚其僵化,将取决于未来几年比特币的价格走势。

bitcoinist5小时前

埃里克·特朗普设定一个“超越灾难”的标准来出售比特币——我们离那有多远?

bitcoinist5小时前

DeFi 到了最危险的时候:真正的漏洞不在代码里

2026年4月,DeFi行业遭遇了历史上被黑最严重的一个月,累计损失超6.25亿美元。关键在于,这些重大攻击(如Drift Protocol损失2.85亿美元、KelpDAO损失2.92亿美元、Wasabi Protocol损失450万美元)均非利用智能合约代码漏洞,而是针对其“运营底座”——包括管理员私钥、跨链桥验证者、多签配置和社会工程。 文章指出,行业长期笃信“安全即代码问题”,但如今威胁已迁移至智能合约之外的信任环节。这些事件暴露了DeFi(实为“OpenFi”)的真相:系统虽开放可审计,却在关键节点依赖少数受信方(如安全理事会、单一验证者、特权管理员)。这种中心化的运营杠杆如同“关闭开关”,既能用于紧急响应(如Arbitrum冻结被盗资产),也可能被攻击者劫持造成灾难。 KelpDAO事件尤其凸显了“非对称蔓延”风险:一家小协议的跨链桥配置错误,竟引发Aave等大型协议超过130亿美元的资金外流,暴露了可组合性下的系统性脆弱。 文章结论认为,行业心智模型已然破裂。前路在于诚实披露信任假设、将运营安全提升至与代码审计同等地位,并建立可被机构定价和承保的风险模型。未来能存活并吸引机构资金的协议,将是那些能清晰定义并管理自身中心化权衡的协议。

链捕手5小时前

DeFi 到了最危险的时候:真正的漏洞不在代码里

链捕手5小时前

Vitalik 发文强调以太坊必须“令人惊叹”,但基金会不是中心

以太坊创始人Vitalik发文回应近期社区对以太坊基金会的批评,强调以太坊必须保持“令人惊叹”的愿景,并澄清基金会并非生态中心,而是有明确目标的节点。文章承认,由于ETH价格疲软(一年内最大跌幅超64%)及生态表现落后于Hyperliquid等竞争者,社区将矛头指向基金会,批评其战略模糊、高层动荡、持续抛售ETH且利益未与持币者对齐。 Vitalik以谷歌为例,警示以太坊应避免从理想主义滑向平庸与腐败,坚持“不作恶”初心。他明确基金会定位:不再作为“以太坊的中心”,而是聚焦于推动对以太坊抗审查、安全、隐私等核心属性至关重要的长远工作,并承诺将大幅减少ETH出售。 对于发展路线,Vitalik反对盲目追求高TPS,认为那将导致平庸。他提出以太坊应在“CROPS”维度做到极致:实现可证明无Bug的以太坊(借助AI形式化验证)、保持高可用的链共识、彻底消除交易中介(达到100%中介最小化)。这些技术坚持旨在通过建立极致确定性来获取高级资本溢价,回应了对其忽略通证经济学的批评。 最后,文章指出,在基金会缩减职能后,如何创建一个与以太坊经济利益真正对齐并负责的新组织,仍是生态需要解决的关键缺口,这也可能是ETH扭转颓势的重要一步。

链捕手6小时前

Vitalik 发文强调以太坊必须“令人惊叹”,但基金会不是中心

链捕手6小时前

交易

现货
合约
活动图片