[Key interpretation] Panic fell and the bottom of BTC strengthened again

Huobi Research发布于2022-07-07更新于2022-07-08

文章摘要

BTC is expected to strengthen better, and the market is about to give an answer.

1、 The rebound trend of BTC remains unchanged

In the daily K-line chart of BTC, the price fluctuation space is relatively limited, and the amplitude remains within 7%. The trading volume performance was relatively mild, which failed to promote BTC to significantly expand its increase. At this time, the competition for long and short trading is not fierce, and the market is in the brewing stage. Due to the narrower fluctuation, the difference between BTC and the corresponding $21659 of brin online rail is $1326. Therefore, the price is more likely to reach this point in the short term. Next, BTC will remain relatively strong, and the space for price rise will continue to increase.

2. BTC panic index rebounded slightly

The BTC panic index continued to show a clear rebound signal. Numerically, the panic index reached 17.21 on July 6. Although it is still in a panic state, with the rebound of the value, investors' trading enthusiasm is picking up.

From the performance of the panic index in the past few months, during the low-level operation of the panic index in the BTC decline stage, only the short-term rebound to the high level will significantly prompt the selling signal. In other words, only when the panic index rises to around 50 will investors be vigilant. Before that, the rebound signal of the panic index and the rebound trend of prices were basically the same.

3. BTC another bottom signal

The unused transaction output indicator MCA of BTC can be used to judge the strength and bottom characteristics of price adjustment. At present, the BTC price is very close to the unused transaction output indicator MCA, and indicates a rebound signal. In the past three years, the stage where BTC price is closest to MCA continues in 2020. In March, 2020, the BTC price appeared below this indicator, which effectively verified the oversold bottom.

At present, the BTC price not only touches the MCA, but also continues to rebound. Based on this, it is judged that the bottom feature is still being confirmed. Therefore, at present, the risk of low BTC absorption is reduced, and the possibility of profit is increased.

4. Eth selling pressure limited rebound continued

In the daily K-line chart of eth, the possibility of US $1106 reversal corresponding to 78.6% of the price in Fibonacci has increased, and the double bottom expectation in the rebound stage has strengthened.

In terms of trading volume, it is clear that the daily trading volume of eth is at the low level since June, but the sign of shrinking trend is not obvious. When the price fluctuation intensity is weak, ETH's brin line has a good closing effect, and the distance from brin line to off track is significantly lower than the level in early June. Therefore, the space for eth to change its disk in the near future may be increased. Short term selling pressure is not large, and further rise may expand the room for growth. In terms of pressure level, pay attention to the cash holding opportunities below $1500.

5. Eth financing interest rate continues to rise

Recently, the financing interest rate of eth has continued to climb to a short-term high, reaching a high of 0.025 on July 7. In terms of relative value, the current financing interest rate of eth is the highest in the year, which means that investors have more clear signs of being bullish. The increase in the cost of long financing to buy eth means that the market is developing in a good direction. Since May 2022, ETH financing interest rate has continued to maintain a short-term high operation. At present, the signs of eth financing interest rate rising are clear, and it has lasted for five transactions. Therefore, the possibility of accelerating the rise of eth prices in the short term cannot be ruled out.

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