Solana risks a fall to $170 despite key bullish signals – Why?

Key Takeaways

Interest in a Solana treasury is growing, and institutional demand could drive the altcoin’s next rally. However, over the next week, a price dip to $192 or even $170 is a possibility.

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Solana [SOL] continued to trade above the $200 mark, with demand likely fueled by institutional flows.

Notably, Canadian investment company Sol Strategies obtained Nasdaq approval, announced on the 5th of September. The company expects trading to commence on the 9th of September under the ticker symbol STKE.

In July 2024, the company transformed from a diversified crypto-holding company to a Solana-only investment company. Sol Strategies has the third-largest Solana treasury holdings.

Interest in building a SOL treasury was growing. Bloomberg reported that Galaxy Digital, Jump Crypto, and Multicoin Capital were seeking $1 billion to assemble a Solana treasury through a public company vehicle.

This effort would create the largest dedicated SOL treasury.

What is the impact on SOL?

In the long term, this was hugely bullish news for the altcoin. In the short term, though, it might not have much of an effect on prices.

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez, via a post on X (formerly Twitter), noted that SOL was trading just above the vital $197 level.

The liquidation map highlighted a cluster of high-leverage liquidations in the $196-$199.5 region. This meant that the price could be attracted lower to this pocket of liquidity before climbing higher.

Further south, the $192.3 was another level that could attract prices in the coming days.

The 1-day timeframe showed a rising wedge pattern on the chart. This was typically a bearish chart pattern that could see the price break downward from the wedge.

In Solana’s case, a price move to $160-$170 was a possibility in case of a breakdown from the wedge.

While the coming days and weeks might see a price dip for SOL — the MVRV ratio revealed that the long-term outlook remained bullish. The metric was above 1, signaling holders were at a profit.

Since February, the MVRV ratio has been below 1.5, which signaled a healthy bullish market for the most part. Early April saw the metric dip below 1, and represented a buying opportunity.

The MVRV showed that SOL was healthy in recent weeks, but nowhere near the 2.4 or higher levels that signal overvalued and euphoria stages.