BTC’s accumulation score, RHODL ratio have been hinting at upcoming…

Ambcrypto发布于2022-06-29更新于2022-06-29

文章摘要

Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency weathered hacks, heists, booms, and busts to reign as the king coin. But soon, altcoins gained traction among users, gathering communities of developers and users often deeply devoted to their goals.

Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency weathered hacks, heists, booms, and busts to reign as the king coin. But soon, altcoins gained traction among users, gathering communities of developers and users often deeply devoted to their goals.

Survival of the fittest

The ongoing crypto crash has made aspect clear- only the fittest would survive this crash. This is the reason why traders/investors are looking at BTC again after the majority of altcoins dropped 80% or more from their November market cap values.

As highlighted by the analytical firm, Santiment, historically, declining interests in inorganic alt pumps are a positive sign for the overall crypto market. To further support BTC’s case, traders/investors, indeed, turned their attention to a good cause.

The Accumulation Trend Score metric continues to return over 0.9 throughout June. This is being primarily driven by Whale (>10k BTC) and Shrimp (< 1BTC) entities adding meaningfully to their on-chain balance.

Source: Glassnode

In addition to this, another indicator showcased a strong HODLing behavior- the Reserve Risk metric that plunged to all-time-lows. This metric is heavily weighed down when there is an excess of HODLing behavior, and coin day accumulation within the supply.

Source: Glassnode

The metrics indicated that despite serious downside price action of 2022, Bitcoin investors in aggregate remained ‘steadfast in holding onto their coins (for better or worse).’ Moreover, the RHODL ratio showcased that coin supply is firmly and heavily dominated by longer-term holders.

Source: Glassnode

Looking at the graph, the RHODL ratio approached “the macro range lows, this indicates that the coin supply is firmly and heavily dominated by these longer-term, more experienced investors,” as per Glassnode.

This indicator captured the relative wealth balance between 1y-2y old coins and 1-week old coins.

Overall, there’s a strong confluence between the Accumulation score, Reserve Risk, and the RHODL ratio. All of the indicators suggested that the market remained ‘dominated by strong thesis, high conviction investors.’

On the other hand, a staggering 81% of altcoins fell by 90% or more from their all-time highs. Some registered even bigger price drops. A majority of these ‘speculative altcoins’ continue to suffer while some even dropped dead.

Difficult ride, whatsoever

Yes, long-term holders have showcased and supported BTC. But there is a distinct lack of younger investors. An event that is more synonymous with late-stage bull market peaks, where the investor base is saturated by new and inexperienced demand.

你可能也喜欢

为什么「AI服务订阅制」,注定会走向消亡?

Anthropic发布最强公开模型Claude Fable 5,但宣布14天后将其从所有订阅计划中移除,转为按用量积分付费。这并非孤立事件,过去八周内,OpenAI、GitHub和Anthropic自身都采取了类似行动,将高级功能或agent用法从固定订阅中剥离,转向按实际使用量(token)计费。 其根本原因在于,传统订阅制依赖一个前提:用户的消费存在生理或时间上的自然上限。然而,AI Agent的出现彻底打破了这一限制。Agent能自主执行复杂任务,消耗的token量是普通对话的数十倍,且无需用户实时参与,导致“消费上限”不复存在。重度用户的超额用量使固定价格的订阅模式在精算上难以持续,出现了“逆向选择”——越是高价的订阅档,吸引来的越是意图“跑满”额度、导致更高补贴成本的重度用户。 行业曾尝试提价、限流等修补措施,但均告失败。如今,所谓的“订阅制”正在被掏空内核:形式上仍是每月扣款,但核心的“固定价格、放心使用”承诺已被移除。例如,GitHub Pro的月费实则为预付费积分;Claude的积分按API费率扣费。固定订阅可能仅能保留在纯聊天等消费量受限于人工时间的场景,但这类场景正被行业发展的主流边缘化。 资本市场的压力(如公司筹备上市)也加速了这一进程,公开市场投资者难以接受持续亏损的订阅模式。未来,AI支出将像云服务支出一样需要精细管理。对用户而言,这意味着“薅羊毛”的补贴期即将结束,价格信号将回归,每个人需要为自己的实际使用量付费。 文章建议,在当前订阅制仍提供高额补贴的窗口期,用户应充分利用以完成高消耗任务。订阅制的消亡不会有正式宣告,它将悄然转变为账单上一项基础的“入场费”。在此之前,且用且珍惜。

marsbit20分钟前

为什么「AI服务订阅制」,注定会走向消亡?

marsbit20分钟前

交易

现货
合约
活动图片