Jupiter cracks 10% lower: Will 2 signals help JUP flip the trend?

Key Takeaways 

Jupiter [JUP] dropped 10% as spot outflows surged, but positive Funding Rates and MFI suggest bulls may not be done yet.

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Jupiter [JUP] saw a sharp decline, dragging the price down by 10% in the past day alone.

Analysis indicates that the decline has been driven by a wave of liquidity outflow from both spot and derivative market investors.

Yet, market indicators paint a different picture, one that suggests that JUP could make an extended run and recover recent losses.

JUP could make a quick rebound

JUP’s sharp drop may be short-lived, as several indicators point to a possible rebound. Price action shows JUP testing its 20-day Moving Average, often a pivot zone between support and resistance.

At press time, the token traded at $0.5675, slightly above the 20-day MA at $0.5431, with a green candle forming.

Additionally, the Money Flow Index (MFI) remains in bullish territory with a reading of 62.70.

Typically, when the MFI is above 50 and trending toward 80, it suggests strong liquidity inflows, boosting the chances of a near-term rally.

However, the likelihood of sustained bullish momentum depends on activity in both the derivative and spot markets.

Derivative market shows mixed signals

The derivative market reveals two contrasting trends that could shape JUP’s next move.

Open Interest—which measures the total value of active contracts—fell sharply. Over $25.4 million worth of JUP contracts were closed, bringing Open Interest down by 14.84% to $171.52 million per CoinGlass.

This decline, which coincided with a drop in price, suggests that most of the outflows came from buyers, possibly indicating a strategic exit.

Interestingly, the Open Interest Weighted Funding Rate tells a different story, hinting that JUP’s overall sentiment remains bullish.

However, Funding Rates remain in positive territory at 0.0027%, signaling long-position dominance, though the rate is trending down.

If the Funding Rate dips into negative territory, it could flip sentiment and lead to more liquidations.

Spot market adds to downside pressure

Meanwhile, spot market investors are intensifying downward pressure on JUP.

In the past 48 hours, they have sold $1.18 million worth of JUP, leading to a significant net outflow.

This behavior indicates a shift in sentiment—from a long-term view to a short-term outlook—as traders anticipate further price declines.

If spot outflows persist and long positions continue to lose strength, JUP could face more downside pressure in the coming days.