Author | Asher(@Asher_ 0210)
In the current crypto market, if there's still an altcoin that can excite the market, it's probably HYPE.
Market data shows that the exchange rates of HYPE against BTC and BNB continue to hit new all-time highs, with HYPE/BTC currently at 0.0006249 and HYPE/BNB at 0.075. This indicates that HYPE's strength is not merely following the market rebound but is consistently outperforming major crypto assets like BTC and BNB.
Previously, the outside world's understanding of Hyperliquid was largely confined to a high-performance Perp DEX. However, it's now evident that capital is not just buying the token of a decentralized trading platform; it's betting that Hyperliquid can integrate more asset types, more liquidity, and more trading scenarios into the same on-chain trading system.
HYPE's price performance also reflects the market's ongoing re-evaluation of Hyperliquid's value.
This article from Odaily Planet Daily will dissect its rising logic from several key changes.
From THYP to BHYP: Compliant Buying for HYPE is Opening Up
The first external catalyst for HYPE's recent surge is the opening of ETF channels.
Currently, two asset management firms have begun launching ETF products centered around Hyperliquid. On May 12th, 21Shares listed the Hyperliquid ETF under the ticker THYP; on May 15th, Bitwise listed the Hyperliquid ETF under the ticker BHYP. Data shows that as of May 18th EST, the total historical net inflows for 21Shares Hyperliquid ETF THYP reached $12.901 million; Bitwise Hyperliquid ETF BHYP reached $2.0446 million.
More crucially, Bitwise didn't stop at merely issuing an ETF. Yesterday, Bitwise announced it would allocate 10% of the management fee revenue from its BHYP Hyperliquid ETF to hold HYPE on its corporate balance sheet, with the related HYPE holdings also being staked.
This transforms the ETF narrative from a simple product listing to a potential source of continuous buying pressure. The larger the ETF size and the higher the management fee revenue, the greater the amount Bitwise could theoretically use to accumulate more HYPE. In the short term, this capital might not immediately sway prices; but in the long run, it links ETF growth, asset manager revenue, and HYPE holdings together.
In other words, ETFs are not just a one-time hype for HYPE but a new capital channel. HYPE is beginning to transition from a crypto-native asset to an on-chain trading platform token that traditional capital can also price.
USDC Returns to Hyperliquid, Adding Potential Daily Buy Pressure Exceeding $400k for HYPE
The second reason for HYPE's recent rise is that with USDC's return to Hyperliquid, the market has started to recalculate the protocol's future stable income and whether this income can continue to flow towards HYPE buybacks.
According to Hyperliquid's official announcement, Coinbase will act as the fund deployer, Circle will be responsible for CCTP and native cross-chain infrastructure deployment, and both parties have committed to staking HYPE to activate AQAv2. This means that the return of USDC is not just a simple stablecoin integration but a new mechanism established by Coinbase, Circle, and Hyperliquid around native USDC, cross-chain liquidity, and reserve yield distribution.
The key point is that Coinbase will subsequently share the majority of the USDC reserve yield with the Hyperliquid protocol. Although the specific revenue-sharing ratio has not been officially disclosed, if referencing the previous USDH yield distribution mechanism, Hyperliquid could potentially receive about 90% of the reserve yield. Therefore, the market also interprets AQAv2 as Hyperliquid establishing a protocol revenue-sharing mechanism for USDC reserve yields.
According to community estimates, based on a scale of $4.7 billion and an annualized yield of 3.8%, the USDC reserve yield corresponds to approximately $160 million in annualized revenue, translating to roughly $440,000 in potential daily HYPE buyback pressure. Once the AQAv2 interface is perfected and officially operational, Hyperliquid would no longer rely solely on trading fees to buy back HYPE but could gain an additional source of relatively stable cash flow.
This is where USDC's return truly impacts HYPE's pricing. Previously, the strength of HYPE buybacks depended mainly on trading volume: the more active the trading, the higher the protocol revenue and repurchase capability. However, with the addition of USDC reserve yields, the source of HYPE buying pressure is no longer solely dependent on trading fees but also begins to depend on how much stablecoin capital Hyperliquid can accumulate. In other words, trading fee buybacks represent platform trading activity, while USDC reserve yield buybacks represent the platform's capital accumulation capability. The market's re-pricing of HYPE might be precisely due to observing that HYPE's buyback story is no longer solely reliant on trading hype.
Hyperliquid Integrates HIP-4, Also Entering the Prediction Market Business
Beyond RWA, Hyperliquid is also reaching into one of the hottest crypto sectors this year – prediction markets.
On May 2nd, Hyperliquid launched HIP-4 Outcome Markets on its mainnet, initially introducing BTC intraday binary outcome contracts. Simply put, users can trade whether the BTC price will be above a specified price at a certain point in time. The contract price fluctuates between 0.001 and 0.999, corresponding to the market's pricing of the event's probability; it settles to 1 if the event occurs and 0 if it does not.
Predictefy data shows that on the first day of HIP-4's launch, the trading volume for BTC price-related event contracts reached $6.15 million, meaning Hyperliquid's volume in this niche market alone already far exceeded that of Kalshi, Polymarket, and other similar markets on prediction platforms.
For HYPE, the significance of HIP-4 is not just adding another product feature but connecting prediction markets to HYPE's staking, fee, and buyback mechanisms. According to the design, in the future, for permissionless deployment of prediction events, market creators will need to stake 1 million HYPE tokens, which is higher than the 500,000 HYPE required for deploying perpetual markets under HIP-3. Each staking slot can support rolling and periodic markets and can be reused after settlement; staked assets may also be slashed if issues like oracle manipulation, abnormal market states, or prolonged downtime occur.
Therefore, what HIP-4 brings to HYPE is not just a simple prediction market concept boost but a more direct value capture path. More permissionless deployment of prediction events means more demand for HYPE staking, more trading volume means more fee revenue, and this portion of fees will ultimately feed back into Hyperliquid's original buyback logic.
RWA Open Interest Hits New Highs, Hyperliquid's Ceiling is More Than Just a Perp DEX
Beyond ETF and USDC yield inflows, RWA is further expanding Hyperliquid's trading boundaries.
Data shows that the open interest for RWA trading on the Hyperliquid platform has risen to $2.6 billion, setting a new all-time high and doubling from two months ago. This data indicates that Hyperliquid is no longer just catering to crypto asset trading demand for BTC, ETH, SOL, etc.; real-world assets are also beginning to scale within its on-chain trading system.
This is crucial for HYPE's pricing. If Hyperliquid were merely a Perp DEX, its valuation anchor would primarily be the crypto cycle, trading volume, and fee revenue. But RWA opens up another dimension: stocks, commodities, precious metals, Pre-IPO assets, and more could all become subjects of 24/7 on-chain trading.
The significance of RWA for Hyperliquid isn't about adding a few more trading pairs; it's about pulling the platform out of the internal competition within the crypto market. Perp DEXes compete over who captures more crypto trading volume, but RWA competition is about who can migrate off-chain asset trading demand onto the chain. If Hyperliquid can continue to grow this part of the market, HYPE's pricing will no longer solely follow the crypto trading cycle but begin to tie into the larger demand for real asset trading.
US SEC Plans Tokenized Stock Exemption, Adding More Imagination to RWA Narrative
Potential regulatory easing by the US SEC regarding tokenized stocks is also raising Hyperliquid's long-term ceiling. According to reports, the US SEC is preparing to introduce an innovation exemption for tokenized stock trading, allowing tokens tied to publicly traded company stocks to trade on crypto platforms. In certain circumstances, related platforms might not need to fully register as broker-dealers or exchanges, and tokenized stocks issued by third parties might not even require consent from the listed companies.
For Hyperliquid, the significance of this is not starting tokenized stocks from scratch but adding regulatory imagination to the RWA direction it is already advancing. On the Hyperliquid platform, trading of real assets like stocks and Pre-IPO assets is already scaling, and RWA open interest has also reached new highs. If US regulation indeed opens a testing window for tokenized stocks, this type of on-chain trading demand could be further amplified.
For Hyperliquid, clearer regulatory boundaries could mean less resistance to bringing real asset trading on-chain; and those more likely to capture incremental growth are often not individual asset issuers but platforms capable of handling order books, liquidity, and settlement. If tokenized stocks transition from gray-area experiments to compliant growth, Hyperliquid's already operational RWA business would not just be an early attempt but could become the main battlefield in the next round of on-chain trading competition.
Fundamentals Still Strengthening, But Short-term Enters a Bull-Bear Battle Zone
The logic behind HYPE's rise is becoming clearer. ETFs open compliant capital inlets, USDC's return brings potential buyback increments, and RWA, prediction markets, and tokenized stocks continue to widen Hyperliquid's trading boundaries. These changes all point in the same direction – Hyperliquid is no longer just a Perp DEX but is expanding into a larger on-chain trading system.
However, a valid long-term logic doesn't mean short-term prices will keep rising unilaterally. According to on-chain data, HYPE is currently witnessing a massive standoff between large long and short whales, with the TOP1 and TOP2 whale positions acting as direct counterparties, with a total size exceeding $60 million. The longs are looking at Hyperliquid's subsequent growth space, while the shorts are betting on pullback pressure after rapid short-term gains. As whale position sizes expand, HYPE's short-term price may no longer be dictated solely by fundamentals but will also be influenced by leverage liquidations, funding rates, and market sentiment.
Therefore, HYPE's short-term price action is not easy to predict and depends more on which side between bulls and bears is forced to exit first. But over a longer timeframe, HYPE's fundamentals are still worthy of market optimism. Hyperliquid continues to expand tradable assets, capital inlets, and revenue sources, and HYPE plays a more central role as a value carrier within the buyback, staking, and fee capture mechanisms.
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