# Пов'язані статті щодо Fed

Центр новин HTX надає останні статті та поглиблений аналіз на тему "Fed", що охоплює ринкові тренди, оновлення проєктів, технологічні розробки та регуляторну політику в криптоіндустрії.

New Chair, Old Inflation, Better-Than-Expected Jobs: How Are Global Assets Repriced After Wash's Debut?

New Fed Chairman Kevin Wash's first FOMC meeting delivered a "hold" decision, keeping rates at 3.50%-3.75%. The key signal was a major shift in communication: the policy statement was shortened, and forward guidance was removed. Wash emphasized the Fed will no longer pre-commit to future actions, instead refocusing markets on economic data itself. The updated "dot plot" revealed a hawkish tilt, with the median forecast for the policy rate rising to 3.8% by year-end, suggesting a potential 25-basis-point hike in 2026. PCE inflation forecasts were also significantly raised. This reflects the Fed's current dilemma: a resilient job market (May nonfarm payrolls beat expectations) coupled with persistent inflation (PCE remains well above 2%) makes rate cuts unlikely and hikes a possibility. Wash inherits a deeply divided committee and a challenging macro environment reminiscent of 1994—strong growth with latent stagflation risks. His primary test is balancing inflation control against economic stability. Markets are repricing assets accordingly. The dollar strengthened on higher rate expectations. Treasury ETFs face pressure from potential hikes but may attract haven flows if growth fears emerge. Gold's role is more as a hedge amid conflicting forces. AI infrastructure stocks face valuation compression from higher rates, but the sector's fundamental demand logic remains intact if cloud CapEx holds. Defense stocks offer some resilience due to long-term government contracts. Looking ahead, key data points will drive market moves: the June nonfarm payrolls (July 2) and CPI (mid-July) will be critical for setting the tone of the July FOMC meeting (July 28-29), where Wash may face his first real policy decision. Political pressure from the White House for rate cuts will also be a persistent theme testing Fed independence.

marsbit9 год тому

New Chair, Old Inflation, Better-Than-Expected Jobs: How Are Global Assets Repriced After Wash's Debut?

marsbit9 год тому

Warsh’s First FOMC Chairmanship: Fed Provides Less Rate Guidance, Will US Bonds Become More Expensive?

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting in June 2026 marked a shift in communication policy. The Fed held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% but removed some forward guidance from its statement, and Warsh did not submit his own "dot plot" interest rate forecast. The move reduces clear signals on future policy paths, which bond markets interpreted as introducing greater uncertainty. Consequently, short-term Treasury yields, like the 2-year, rose to multi-month highs as investors demanded higher yields to compensate for increased policy judgment risk. Warsh aims to break the "echo chamber" where markets overly focus on Fed signals rather than economic fundamentals. While some investors welcome potential reduced market speculation, others worry that less clarity will amplify volatility and raise borrowing costs. The review of Fed communication tools underscores a debate on balancing transparency with policy flexibility in a higher-rate environment.

marsbitВчора 10:31

Warsh’s First FOMC Chairmanship: Fed Provides Less Rate Guidance, Will US Bonds Become More Expensive?

marsbitВчора 10:31

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Faces Congress on July 14 Amid Rate Hike Debate

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will testify before the House Financial Services Committee on July 14, providing his first monetary policy assessment to Congress. This hearing occurs weeks before the Federal Open Market Committee's next meeting and fulfills the Fed's biannual reporting requirement. Investors are closely watching for insights on inflation and interest rates. Attention has shifted to the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures price index data, with May's figures expected to show a 0.5% monthly increase. Due to persistent inflation, some institutions like Bank of America now forecast three quarter-point rate hikes in September, October, and December, a shift from earlier expectations of no changes this year. Markets currently see a low probability of a July rate hike but are increasingly pricing in tightening later in the year, with CME FedWatch data indicating over a 50% chance of a move by September.

TheNewsCryptoВчора 10:10

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Faces Congress on July 14 Amid Rate Hike Debate

TheNewsCryptoВчора 10:10

The US Dollar Challenges Japan's Intervention Threshold: Will the Carry Trade Collapse Again?

The U.S. dollar remains strong, with the Dollar Index holding above 101 as Federal Reserve policy expectations turn more hawkish. The 2-year Treasury yield is near highs from early 2025, boosting the dollar's appeal against currencies like the euro and pound. The USD/JPY pair is approaching a critical level near 161.96, which would mark the yen's weakest point since December 1986. This pressure stems from the widening interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan. Japanese authorities have issued verbal warnings about potential intervention to support the yen, but uncertainty remains over if and when action will be taken. Oil prices rebounded after a recent drop, introducing renewed inflation concerns. While not the main driver, higher oil prices could further fuel expectations that the Fed will maintain a restrictive policy. Market focus centers on three key issues: whether the Fed will follow through on rate hike expectations, the possibility of Japanese FX intervention, and the trajectory of oil prices. The resolution of these factors will determine whether the current strong dollar trend persists or gives way to increased volatility.

marsbitВчора 05:56

The US Dollar Challenges Japan's Intervention Threshold: Will the Carry Trade Collapse Again?

marsbitВчора 05:56

Research Report Analysis: The Fed's New Chair's Debut – New Leader, But Same Script?

Report Analysis: Federal Reserve's New Chair Debut – A New Captain, But the Same Script? Morgan Stanley's chief global economist Seth B. Carpenter analyzes the first FOMC meeting under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in a June 21 report. Warsh deliberately avoided providing forward guidance on interest rates, aligning with his philosophy. However, market expectations for a rate hike this year were reinforced. Key signals lie elsewhere: inflation may fall more than expected, and quantitative tightening (QT) could be more aggressive than anticipated. The FOMC's "dot plot" suggests only one rate hike in 2026. Carpenter argues that if inflation undershoots forecasts, the logic for even a single hike weakens, especially as projections indicate potential rate cuts in 2027. On QT, Warsh's stance is clear. Carpenter notes that measures like halving the Treasury's account balance could shrink the Fed's balance sheet by around $500 billion with minimal market impact. Combined with adjustments to reserve interest and liquidity rules, the ultimate QT scale may exceed expectations, though its market effect might be less disruptive unless the Fed actively sells Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). While Warsh initiated a review of the Fed's policy framework, the 2% inflation target remains intact for now. The report concludes that the market may be overestimating the significance of reduced forward guidance and the near-term rate hike risk, while potentially underestimating the scope and manageable nature of the coming balance sheet reduction. The key debates will hinge on upcoming core PCE data, the specifics of the QT path, and the framework review's findings.

marsbit2 дні тому 14:32

Research Report Analysis: The Fed's New Chair's Debut – New Leader, But Same Script?

marsbit2 дні тому 14:32

Fed Turns Hawkish, Wall Street Capitulates, Citi Stands as 'Last Holdout': Insists on Resuming Rate Cuts in October

Amid a surprisingly hawkish shift from the Fed and most of Wall Street capitulating on rate cut expectations, Citigroup stands as a notable outlier, holding firm to its forecast for monetary easing to restart this October. Following the June FOMC meeting, where the "dovish bias" was removed and the dot plot shifted dramatically, markets priced in nearly 37bps of tightening for 2026. Major banks like Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs revised their calls, predicting rate hikes as soon as September. Citigroup, however, maintains a baseline scenario for a 25bps rate cut in October, followed by two more cuts in December and January 2027. Its counter-consensus view rests on three key arguments: 1) Plunging oil prices are eliminating a major inflation upside risk. 2) Rising initial jobless claims are mirroring seasonal weakening patterns seen in 2024-2025, signaling a labor market cool-down. 3) The strong core PCE is an "outlier," heavily influenced by AI-related prices and equity market gains rather than broad consumer price pressures, with other inflation metrics showing more moderation. While Wall Street largely "surrenders" to the hawkish Fed narrative, with Deutsche Bank forecasting two hikes and Goldman Sachs warning of potential back-to-back moves, Citigroup remains the "last holdout," betting that disinflationary forces will pave the way for cuts before year-end.

marsbit2 дні тому 10:39

Fed Turns Hawkish, Wall Street Capitulates, Citi Stands as 'Last Holdout': Insists on Resuming Rate Cuts in October

marsbit2 дні тому 10:39

Trends in US Stocks (June 22): Strait of Hormuz Agreement Changes Course, Thursday's PCE and Micron to Determine Chip Sector Direction

U.S. Stock Market Outlook (June 22): Strait of Hormuz Deal Falters, Thursday's PCE & Micron to Set Chip Sector Direction. Geopolitical tensions resurged over the weekend as Iran's IRGC announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and its negotiation team walked out after threats from Trump, pausing U.S.-Iran talks. This renewed risk premium is weighing on U.S. equity futures ahead of the open. Last week's market was driven by chip stocks, with the Philly Semiconductor Index hitting a record high. While the Fed's hawkish tone was overshadowed by initial deal optimism, the S&P 500 gained 0.9% for the week. SpaceX debuted strongly but ended with two down days. Key events this week: The status of U.S.-Iran negotiations remains the immediate variable for oil and energy stocks. Monday sees Marvell and Flex added to the S&P 500. Tuesday's MSCI reclassification could benefit South Korean semiconductors and memory stocks. **Thursday, June 25th, is the critical day**, featuring the May Core PCE report and Micron's earnings. Hotter PCE data could solidify expectations for two 2024 rate hikes, while softer data would rapidly reprice rate cut bets. Micron's report is a key test for the AI narrative; the market will scrutinize its 2027 HBM supply visibility, HBM4 progress, and its position in Nvidia's Vera Rubin supply chain. Nvidia's AGM and a potential OpenAI GPT-5.6 release will make Thursday a pivotal 24 hours for AI. Friday concludes with the Russell reconstitution, elevating small-cap volatility. In summary, last week's gains face a true test. The path hinges on two concurrent threads: geopolitical developments with Iran and the AI narrative defined by Micron's guidance and Nvidia's updates. The chip sector's record highs are vulnerable if Thursday brings hot PCE data and conservative guidance from Micron. Conversely, positive outcomes could reaffirm the AI bull case, making this week's volatility a potential entry window.

marsbit2 дні тому 01:19

Trends in US Stocks (June 22): Strait of Hormuz Agreement Changes Course, Thursday's PCE and Micron to Determine Chip Sector Direction

marsbit2 дні тому 01:19

1996 or 1999? Walsh's First Test is 'How to View AI'

"1996 or 1999? Wall's First Big Test Is 'How to View AI'" Federal Reserve Chairman Wall's initial challenge is not whether to raise or cut rates, but a more fundamental judgment: what kind of boom is the current AI boom? This will determine the Fed's policy path and define his legacy. Economics is split between two opposing views, according to reporter Nick Timiraos. One sees imminent productivity gains that will increase supply and cool inflation, allowing the Fed to hold steady. The other argues that while productivity benefits are distant, demand shocks are here now, and waiting for data confirmation risks missing the intervention window, forcing sharper rate hikes later. Wall has signaled a leaning toward the first view, echoing 1996-era Alan Greenspan, who embraced strong, productivity-driven growth without fear of inflation. However, Wall faces a different macro environment than Greenspan did, with tariff pressures, expanding fiscal deficits, and diminishing globalization benefits, which could force more significant inflation pressures even if AI benefits materialize. Wall's logic, expressed before taking office, is that AI-driven productivity gains won't show in official data for years. If the Fed waits for confirmation, it might mistakenly tighten policy and choke off the very growth that could suppress inflation. This argues for using forward-looking narratives over lagging data. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee presents a key counter-argument. He distinguishes between expected and unexpected productivity booms. A widely anticipated boom, like the current AI wave, can cause people to spend future wealth gains in advance, overheating the economy before productivity actually rises, thus requiring preemptive rate hikes. He cites rising costs for AI data centers as evidence of such overheating. Fed Governor Christopher Waller offers a rebuttal to Goolsbee, noting the "expected spending" mechanism only works if people can borrow against future income, which many households cannot do due to borrowing constraints. Wall also faces a paradox related to his desire to reduce the Fed's use of "forward guidance" (pre-announcing policy moves). This practice was established in 1999 when Greenspan began signaling hikes to avoid market shocks. If the economy follows a less optimistic path, Wall may be forced to choose between using the guidance he wants to abolish or risking market volatility by staying silent. The ultimate question defining Wall's first major test remains: Is this 1996 or 1999?

marsbit06/20 07:53

1996 or 1999? Walsh's First Test is 'How to View AI'

marsbit06/20 07:53

BIT Research: Liquidity is Disappearing, Will Bitcoin Replay the Bottoming Pattern of 2022?

The crypto market is currently in an adjustment phase driven by policy expectations and liquidity shifts. Despite a brief rebound fueled by geopolitical easing and SpaceX's strong IPO performance, unexpectedly hawkish signals from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh have removed anticipated easing support. Concurrently, stablecoin liquidity is shrinking, with insufficient new capital inflows, pushing the market into a typically quiet summer period. Pricing lacks catalysts for a sustained rally. Daily trading volume has significantly contracted, stablecoin growth has slowed markedly, and the supportive effect of Strategy's (formerly MicroStrategy) STRC preferred stock-financed Bitcoin purchases is fading. Amid policy uncertainty, seasonal weakness, and liquidity contraction, Bitcoin faces near-term downward pressure. Warsh's hawkish pivot and refusal to provide a clear policy outlook have increased risk premiums, historically unfavorable for Bitcoin. Technically, the trend remains bearish below $73,700, with $62,446 as critical support. A break below could accelerate declines, though a prolonged consolidation phase, similar to 2022's bottoming process, is possible. Liquidity is a core constraint. Current daily volume is around $500 billion, roughly 25% of the peak during the July-Oct 2025 rally. The 12-month growth rates for USDT and USDC have fallen to ~20%, with 6-month growth near zero, indicating weak new inflows. Bitcoin ETF and Strategy-driven inflows have also weakened, with a 30-day rolling net outflow. With inflation at 4.2% above the Fed's target, combined hawkish policy, seasonal factors, and liquidity shortages challenge Bitcoin's ability to hold above $60,000. However, this adjustment phase may be forming a cyclical low this summer, potentially setting the stage for the next bull cycle.

marsbit06/20 02:39

BIT Research: Liquidity is Disappearing, Will Bitcoin Replay the Bottoming Pattern of 2022?

marsbit06/20 02:39

Oil Prices Fall Below $80, Bitcoin Yet to Rise: Liquidity Becomes Key Market Driver

Oil prices fell below $80 as a US-Iran peace framework eased tensions, but Bitcoin failed to rally, remaining around $64,900. The article argues that while lower oil removes a key bearish factor for BTC, the primary market drivers have shifted to liquidity conditions, Federal Reserve policy, ETF fund flows, and overall risk appetite. Historically, high oil prices threatened inflation, delaying Fed rate cuts and hurting risk assets like Bitcoin. Now, with oil prices down, Bitcoin's path hinges on whether this translates into lower inflation expectations, softer Treasury yields, and a more dovish Fed stance. Recent FOMC minutes still show concern over energy-driven inflation, keeping financial conditions restrictive. Bitcoin ETF flows showed a slight positive inflow recently, but sustained demand is needed for a meaningful shift. The market requires consistent signals: stable ETF inflows, declining yields, and improving risk sentiment alongside lower oil prices. Without this combination, lower oil alone may not boost BTC. The outlook presents two paths: a recovery if lower oil eases inflation, the Fed turns less hawkish, and ETF demand stabilizes, allowing BTC to reclaim the $66,900-$70,000 range. Conversely, Bitcoin could remain pressured if the peace deal stalls, the Fed remains restrictive, yields stay high, or ETF flows reverse. In summary, for the remainder of 2026, liquidity factors—Fed policy, ETF activity, and investor risk appetite—have surpassed oil prices as the critical determinants of Bitcoin's price trajectory.

marsbit06/18 02:49

Oil Prices Fall Below $80, Bitcoin Yet to Rise: Liquidity Becomes Key Market Driver

marsbit06/18 02:49

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