# Пов'язані статті щодо Fed

Центр новин HTX надає останні статті та поглиблений аналіз на тему "Fed", що охоплює ринкові тренди, оновлення проєктів, технологічні розробки та регуляторну політику в криптоіндустрії.

Bitcoin vs. gold: Why the BTC/XAU ratio could be key in July

The article discusses the significance of the Bitcoin-to-gold (BTC/XAU) ratio as a key macro indicator for July, amid resurgent market volatility. Geopolitical tensions, specifically the collapse of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, triggered a spike in oil prices and renewed inflation concerns. This has increased market expectations for a more hawkish Federal Reserve, putting pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin. Historically, both Bitcoin and gold have performed well in July. However, the current volatile macro backdrop forces a clearer choice between the two as a hedge. While the BTC/XAU ratio is up over 4.5% for the month, indicating Bitcoin's continued outperformance, the article suggests this trend is under pressure. The ratio will serve as a critical gauge for whether capital remains in Bitcoin or rotates back into the traditional safe haven of gold as macro uncertainty persists.

ambcrypto2 дні тому 08:02

Bitcoin vs. gold: Why the BTC/XAU ratio could be key in July

ambcrypto2 дні тому 08:02

Wall Street's Take on the June Fed Meeting Minutes: Focus on Core Inflation, No Short-Term Urgency to Hike Rates

Wall Street's View on Fed June Minutes: Inflation is the Key, No Urgency for Near-Term Hike The minutes of the Federal Reserve's June FOMC meeting revealed a unified Wall Street interpretation: inflation remains the true determinant for future policy moves. Major institutions including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Citigroup concluded that the Fed remains data-dependent, with its path hinging on upcoming inflation data. Key takeaways from the minutes: * **No Immediate Tightening**: Despite "a few" participants seeing reasons to hike, none actively advocated for it at the June meeting. The consensus was to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75%. * **Inflation as the Decisive Factor**: The Fed outlined two primary scenarios. If inflation declines "soon" toward the 2% target, "almost all" officials would support maintaining or eventually cutting rates. If inflation persists high due to factors like AI demand or supply shocks, "almost all" would see some policy tightening as necessary. * **Patience is Warranted**: Officials noted inflation remains above target but cited anchored inflation expectations and a labor market not currently driving price pressures as reasons for patience. The Fed is focused on the *direction* of inflation over the next few months. * **No Policy Framework Shift**: The minutes reaffirmed a data-dependent approach rather than a fundamental shift toward pre-emptive tightening. Institutional Forecasts: * **Morgan Stanley**: Expects rates on hold in 2026, with potential cuts in 2027 if inflation cools. * **Goldman Sachs**: Baseline scenario sees rates unchanged through 2026, with inflation moderating gradually. * **Citigroup**: Takes a more dovish view, suggesting market pricing for a July hike is too aggressive and forecasting potential rate cuts starting in late 2026. Overall, the minutes were perceived as marginally dovish, emphasizing a watchful stance on inflation data with no near-term urgency to hike.

marsbit2 дні тому 02:09

Wall Street's Take on the June Fed Meeting Minutes: Focus on Core Inflation, No Short-Term Urgency to Hike Rates

marsbit2 дні тому 02:09

Trading Moment: South Korean Stocks Fall into Technical Bear Market, Hong Kong Tech Leads Strongly, BTC Pulls Back Slightly

Market Roundup: Tech Leads in Hong Kong, South Korea Enters Technical Bear Market, BTC Dips Global markets displayed divergent trends. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Tech Index surged over 5%, led by major tech stocks like Alibaba (+12%) and Xiaomi (+10%), as southbound capital inflows exceeded HK$11 billion. In contrast, South Korea's KOSPI tumbled 5.35%, entering a technical bear market (down >20% from June peak), heavily dragged by chip giants Samsung and SK Hynix. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 2.11% for a third day, pressured by tech and rising bond yields. Bitcoin saw a slight pullback after its recent rebound, testing key support near $63,000. Analysts note the rally appears corrective, driven by macro factors rather than a structural shift. Sustained ETF inflows are seen as crucial for a trend reversal. Key near-term levels are support at $63,000 and resistance at $64,600-$65,000. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a third consecutive day of net inflows (+$21.44M). In mainland China, A-share indices closed lower, though semiconductor and computing power sectors saw gains. Market focus now turns to upcoming U.S. Fed minutes, Chinese macroeconomic data, and global liquidity conditions, which will be pivotal for near-term direction across these asset classes.

marsbit07/08 08:48

Trading Moment: South Korean Stocks Fall into Technical Bear Market, Hong Kong Tech Leads Strongly, BTC Pulls Back Slightly

marsbit07/08 08:48

Unexpected Weak Non-Farm Payrolls Data Pushes BTC to Rebound 11%, FOMC Minutes to Test the Narrative of This Rally

Bitcoin has rebounded 11% from its 21-month low, but the sustainability of this rally hinges entirely on the Federal Reserve's release of the June FOMC meeting minutes. The bounce was triggered by a weaker-than-expected US jobs report, which showed only 57,000 jobs added in June—about half of economists' forecasts. This data prompted traders to scale back bets on further Fed rate hikes, fueling a rally in Bitcoin alongside gold and stocks. The upcoming minutes are critical. They will reveal whether Fed officials, in their mid-June meeting, were already expressing concerns about a weakening labor market, tight credit conditions, or the risks of overtightening—factors that would support the market's recent dovish shift. Conversely, if the discussion focused on persistent inflation and the conditions for more rate hikes, the rally's foundational narrative would crumble. Market indicators show the rebound's fragility. While US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a significant single-day inflow, it followed a prolonged period of outflows. On-chain data indicates a substantial increase in Bitcoin being moved to exchanges, creating potential sell pressure. Options market positioning suggests key price levels around $60,000 and $62,000 that could either stabilize or accelerate price movement. In essence, Bitcoin's 11% gain is built on speculation about the Fed's private deliberations three weeks ago. The FOMC minutes will replace that speculation with concrete details, and the discrepancy between market expectations and the actual record will determine whether Bitcoin holds above $64,000 or falls back toward $58,000.

marsbit07/08 04:52

Unexpected Weak Non-Farm Payrolls Data Pushes BTC to Rebound 11%, FOMC Minutes to Test the Narrative of This Rally

marsbit07/08 04:52

Bitcoin Begins an Independent Market Move: Is This a Rebound or a Reversal?

Bitcoin has begun to show independent price action, rebounding from around $57,742 to surpass $60,000. This move was initially triggered by comments from Federal Reserve officials downplaying inflation risks and was subsequently amplified by weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data, which reduced expectations for further interest rate hikes. The rally was further fueled by a short squeeze, with approximately $281 million in short positions being liquidated as the price climbed. This created buying pressure and accelerated the upward move. Altcoins, particularly Ethereum and Solana, have also participated in the rally, indicating a broader, though not yet euphoric, risk-on sentiment returning to the crypto market. However, several key indicators suggest caution. The recovery is not yet a confirmed trend reversal. Despite the price rebound, the options market still shows a high premium for downside protection, implying traders remain wary. The short squeeze itself provides a temporary boost but requires sustained buying from spot markets, such as ETFs, to maintain momentum. Furthermore, Bitcoin's trajectory remains sensitive to macroeconomic data; any resurgence in inflation concerns or a shift to a more hawkish Fed stance could quickly reverse recent gains.

marsbit07/07 05:28

Bitcoin Begins an Independent Market Move: Is This a Rebound or a Reversal?

marsbit07/07 05:28

Bitcoin Rebounds As Softer Jobs Data Lifts Rate-Cut Hopes

Bitcoin rebounded as softer U.S. jobs data strengthened market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The report indicated a cooling labor market, which could make rate reductions easier to justify if inflation remains manageable. Lower rates typically support risk assets like Bitcoin by improving liquidity expectations and reducing the appeal of cash. However, the positive macro sentiment must contend with ongoing supply-side pressures for Bitcoin. These include large BTC transfers from government wallets and upcoming Mt. Gox repayments, which have made traders sensitive to potential selling pressure. While the market is currently viewing the weak jobs data as supportive, the sustainability of this rally will be tested if significant coin movements toward exchanges occur or if Fed officials push back against aggressive rate-cut forecasts.

bitcoinist07/07 02:44

Bitcoin Rebounds As Softer Jobs Data Lifts Rate-Cut Hopes

bitcoinist07/07 02:44

Bitcoin Rebounds to $64k as Fed Rate Hike Expectations Plummet?

Bitcoin rebounded strongly this week, climbing back above $60,000 and briefly touching $64,000. This recovery followed a significant drop after the U.S. presidential election, with the market now closely watching Federal Reserve policy signals. The key trigger was a weaker-than-expected June U.S. jobs report, showing only 57,000 new jobs versus an expected 115,000. While the unemployment rate fell, analysts noted concerning details like declining labor force participation. However, wage growth accelerated to 3.5% year-over-year, sustaining inflation concerns. Market focus has shifted to the upcoming July Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Analysts expect a monthly decline in overall prices, partly due to falling gasoline costs. This has led traders to reduce bets on further Fed rate hikes this year, with markets now pricing in a high probability of rates holding steady at the July meeting. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's recent comments about easing inflation risks have further supported this dovish shift. The anticipation of lower borrowing costs and a weaker dollar is seen as supportive for risk-sensitive assets like Bitcoin. Some investors are positioning for a potential Fed policy pivot to easing later this year, which could benefit "devaluation trades" including cryptocurrencies. Looking ahead, Bitcoin's price trajectory remains highly sensitive to U.S. economic data—particularly jobs and inflation reports—and evolving Fed policy expectations. Other critical factors include institutional ETF flows and geopolitical developments. Analysts suggest that if these factors improve, the recent sell-off could be seen as a buying opportunity; otherwise, high volatility may persist until a solid price floor is established.

marsbit07/07 02:16

Bitcoin Rebounds to $64k as Fed Rate Hike Expectations Plummet?

marsbit07/07 02:16

Bitcoin may not be done capitulating – Why a $50K bottom is still in play

Bitcoin faces potential further downside toward $50,000 despite long-term holder (LTH) resilience. Currently, LTHs control a record 78% of supply and are accumulating rather than selling during the downturn, diverging from historical capitulation patterns seen at market bottoms. However, with BTC posting seven consecutive monthly losses—short of the nine that marked prior cycle bottoms in 2018 and 2022—the capitulation phase may not be over. Shifting macroeconomic expectations, with markets pricing in potential Fed rate hikes instead of cuts, add pressure. If history repeats, LTH capitulation could trigger a final washout, driving Bitcoin toward $50,000 by Q3's end before a durable bottom forms.

ambcrypto07/06 21:02

Bitcoin may not be done capitulating – Why a $50K bottom is still in play

ambcrypto07/06 21:02

Bitcoin Rebounds to $64,000 as Fed Rate Hike Expectations Plummet?

Bitcoin has rebounded to over $64,000 after hitting a multi-year low, recovering from earlier sell-offs partly linked to political uncertainty in the US. The rebound follows a weak US June jobs report, which showed far fewer new jobs added than expected, though wage growth remained firm. This mixed data has led markets to reassess the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, with expectations for further rate hikes diminishing. Analysts highlight that upcoming inflation data, particularly the June CPI report, will be critical in shaping Fed policy under new Chair Kevin Wash. While some view the weak jobs data as potentially paving the way for monetary easing—supporting risk assets like Bitcoin—others caution that persistent economic resilience could delay rate cuts and pressure crypto markets. Overall, Bitcoin's near-term trajectory is seen as highly sensitive to US economic indicators, Fed policy signals, ETF flows, and geopolitical developments.

Foresight News07/06 09:02

Bitcoin Rebounds to $64,000 as Fed Rate Hike Expectations Plummet?

Foresight News07/06 09:02

After Close Observation of Wash, Morgan Stanley's Chief Economist Insists: The Fed Will Not Raise Rates This Year

After close observation of Federal Reserve Chair Wash, Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Economist, asserts that the Fed will not raise interest rates this year. Following Wash's speech at the ECB's Sintra forum, Carpenter notes a marginal dovish shift: Wash now more clearly balances the Fed's dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment, rather than focusing nearly exclusively on inflation. Importantly, Wash highlighted that the latest policy meeting (coinciding with falling oil prices) has already lowered market inflation expectations and term premiums, signaling no urgency for a July rate hike. Carpenter's view is supported by data. Recent non-farm payroll figures provide room for the Fed to remain patient. Morgan Stanley's inflation forecasts are below the median FOMC projection, and methodological revisions to PCE inflation could further lower readings. These factors make Carpenter "comfortable" with the call for no hikes in 2024. Carpenter also pushes back against the simplistic narrative that AI will be deflationary and lead to rate cuts. He argues AI investment is currently boosting inflation marginally. More broadly, the business cycle will dictate policy; AI's productivity gains could boost demand and, crucially, raise the equilibrium interest rate (r*), weakening the case for cuts. In contrast, the ECB's path remains more hawkish. Carpenter interprets President Lagarde's Sintra comments as leaving the door open for another 25 basis point hike in September, though softer recent data and falling oil prices provide some flexibility. A July hike or more than one additional hike this year is seen as unlikely.

marsbit07/06 01:39

After Close Observation of Wash, Morgan Stanley's Chief Economist Insists: The Fed Will Not Raise Rates This Year

marsbit07/06 01:39

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