# Prediction Market İlgili Makaleler

HTX Haber Merkezi, kripto endüstrisindeki piyasa trendleri, proje güncellemeleri, teknoloji gelişmeleri ve düzenleyici politikaları kapsayan "Prediction Market" hakkında en son makaleleri ve derinlemesine analizleri sunmaktadır.

Prediction Market Traders Increase Odds of Fed Rate Hike

Prediction market traders have raised the odds of a US Federal Reserve interest rate hike at its July meeting. On Polymarket, the probability of rates remaining unchanged dropped to 73.8%, while chances for a 25 basis point increase rose to 26.4%, with total trading volume reaching $109 million. Kalshi showed a similar split: 72.9% for no change and 27.6% for a hike, with $46.2 million in volume. The Fed's FOMC meeting is scheduled for July 28-29, with the current target rate at 3.5–3.75%. While a majority still expects no change, about a third of market participants anticipate an increase to 3.75-4%. This shift in expectations is attributed not only to persistent inflation but also to rising oil prices and tensions in the Persian Gulf. Oil prices briefly surged above $100 per barrel last week before retreating. However, June's Consumer Price Index data, showing a monthly decline of 0.4% and a yearly inflation slowdown to 3.5%, provides an argument for the Fed to pause. Analysts note that the Fed's upcoming decision is being viewed as less predictable than usual.

cryptonews.ru7 saat önce

Prediction Market Traders Increase Odds of Fed Rate Hike

cryptonews.ru7 saat önce

Augur Issues Final Call for Mandatory REP Migration as Historic Fork Nears Completion

Augur, a decentralized prediction-market project, has issued a final call for REP token holders to complete a mandatory 1:1 migration by August 1, 2026. This concludes the "Moon Fork," a live test of its dispute-resolution mechanism. The fork was triggered by an escalated dispute over the Artemis II mission's successful launch, splitting the protocol into outcome-specific universes. Migration is one-way and irreversible via the official portal. Unmigrated tokens will lose functionality and value. Centralized exchange users must confirm their exchange's support or withdraw to a self-custody wallet. The fork demonstrates Augur's security model, where economic incentives and a mandatory migration force attackers to bear unsustainable costs to defend a false outcome. Future development by the Lituus Foundation will continue only on the universe representing the truthful outcome.

TheNewsCrypto07/24 07:57

Augur Issues Final Call for Mandatory REP Migration as Historic Fork Nears Completion

TheNewsCrypto07/24 07:57

The White House's "Exclusive" Teleprompter Operator Makes Over $100,000 by Profiting from Insider Information Predictions

"White House Speech Prompt Operator Earns Over $100,000 Using Insider Information on Prediction Markets" U.S. White House staffer Gabriel Perez, a long-time teleprompter operator for former President Donald Trump, has been suspended without pay for using non-public information to profit on prediction markets. As one of the few individuals with advance access to Trump's prepared speech texts, Perez placed bets on specific words or phrases Trump would mention in speeches over a three-month period, earning over $100,000. His activities were flagged by the prediction platform Kalshi, which froze over $90,000 in his account and reported him to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). While Perez avoided criminal charges, he is required to return his profits and cease such trading. This case marks the third major instance of insider trading on prediction markets involving government or corporate insiders, following earlier cases involving a special forces soldier and a Google engineer. The incident highlights the vulnerability of "mention" markets on prediction platforms, where individuals with advance knowledge or even the speakers themselves can easily manipulate outcomes. In response, platforms like Kalshi are tightening rules, now requiring users to disclose their employers to help prevent similar abuses.

marsbit07/22 06:50

The White House's "Exclusive" Teleprompter Operator Makes Over $100,000 by Profiting from Insider Information Predictions

marsbit07/22 06:50

Kalshi vows appeal after Washington judge finds prediction market likely violates state gambling laws

A Washington state judge has granted a preliminary injunction against prediction market operator Kalshi, finding it likely violates the state's Gambling Act and Consumer Protection Act. The Washington Attorney General argued Kalshi's platform, which allows betting on events like sports and elections, constitutes an illegal online gambling business. Kalshi vowed to appeal, contending its event contracts are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission under federal law and that states lack jurisdiction. The case highlights the legal conflict over whether federally regulated prediction markets are subject to state gambling laws. The outcome could significantly influence the future oversight of such markets across the United States.

ambcrypto07/21 19:42

Kalshi vows appeal after Washington judge finds prediction market likely violates state gambling laws

ambcrypto07/21 19:42

The Most Difficult Thing to Predict on Polymarket Is... When the POLY Airdrop Will Happen

During the recent World Cup, Polymarket saw record-breaking activity, with its "World Cup winner" market reaching $4.32 billion in volume, making it the platform's highest-volume single prediction event ever. Over the six-week tournament, football markets amassed $85 billion in nominal trading volume, cementing sports as a major growth driver. Capitalizing on this surge in traffic, Polymarket quietly increased fees for its sports markets in early July. The taker fee multiplier was raised from 0.03 to 0.05, effectively raising maximum costs per trade by nearly 70% and moving sports out of its lowest fee tier. This follows a broader trend of the platform gradually expanding fee structures across various market categories since the start of the year to boost revenue. However, community focus is increasingly shifting from trading volumes to the long-awaited POLY token airdrop. Despite a senior executive confirming in late 2025 that a token and airdrop were planned for after U.S. market re-entry, no timeline has been provided. Recent actions, like an affiliated account deleting a potentially suggestive tweet and official help pages stating "no airdrop or token generation event has been announced," have fueled speculation and frustration. The community is divided on the reasons for the delay. Some believe Polymarket is waiting for a more favorable regulatory window in the U.S., while others speculate that the platform's strong organic growth and rising fee revenue have reduced the urgency to issue a token, potentially following a path similar to OpenSea. The prolonged uncertainty has led users to question not the *if*, but the *when*, of the POLY airdrop, turning it into one of the platform's most unpredictable events.

Odaily星球日报07/21 02:11

The Most Difficult Thing to Predict on Polymarket Is... When the POLY Airdrop Will Happen

Odaily星球日报07/21 02:11

The Hardest Thing to Predict on Polymarket Is... When Will the POLY Airdrop Happen?

The article discusses Polymarket's record-breaking performance during the 2026 World Cup, where the tournament's champion prediction market alone saw $43.2 billion in volume, surpassing the 2024 US election. The six-week event generated $85 billion in total football-related trading. It then details how Polymarket quietly raised trading fees for its sports markets just before the World Cup ended, increasing the taker fee from a coefficient of 0.03 to 0.05. This move expanded the platform's fee structure, which had been gradually rolling out across different market categories since early 2026, to boost revenue from established user activity. A significant portion focuses on the growing community controversy and uncertainty surrounding the long-awaited POLY token airdrop. Despite a prior executive confirmation that a token and airdrop were planned for after US market re-entry, no timeline has been announced. Recent actions, like deleting a suggestive tweet and adding website warnings about unannounced airdrops, have fueled speculation. Theories for the delay include waiting for a better regulatory window or that Polymarket, now successful with real revenue, no longer feels urgent pressure to issue a token, potentially becoming "the next OpenSea." The community's discussion has shifted from how the airdrop will work to if and when it will ever happen.

marsbit07/21 02:07

The Hardest Thing to Predict on Polymarket Is... When Will the POLY Airdrop Happen?

marsbit07/21 02:07

HIP-4 Enables Permissionless Deployment, Can Hyperliquid Kill Polymarket?

Hyperliquid announced that its HIP-4 prediction markets will soon support permissionless deployments, similar to its successful HIP-3 model for perpetual contracts. This move aims to ignite growth in its underperforming prediction market segment by allowing third parties to create their own prediction markets upon staking 500,000 HYPE (worth approximately $30 million), with the potential to earn up to 50% fee shares. While this strategy mirrors the approach that propelled HIP-3 and platforms like Trade.xyz to dominance in tokenized trading, the article raises significant challenges for HIP-4. Its current performance is weak, with only $216 million in total volume over three months—pales in comparison to Polymarket's $4.6 billion monthly volume. The high staking barrier may exclude smaller teams, potentially limiting innovation and event diversity. Furthermore, Hyperliquid missed the crucial timing window of the 2026 World Cup, a major catalyst for prediction market activity, which competitors like Polymarket capitalized on heavily. The success of HIP-3 was partly due to perfect timing, such as during the U.S.-Iran conflict when traditional markets were closed. Without a similar catalytic event and facing an established leader like Polymarket, it remains uncertain whether Hyperliquid's "decentralized" strategy can successfully disrupt the prediction market landscape.

marsbit07/20 12:01

HIP-4 Enables Permissionless Deployment, Can Hyperliquid Kill Polymarket?

marsbit07/20 12:01

Blockchain.com Integrates Polymarket Oracle Feeds Supporting Election Speculation

Blockchain.com has integrated oracle data feeds from prediction market platform Polymarket, providing users with direct access to real-time information for election speculation markets. This move allows traders to view and engage with election prediction pools directly within the Blockchain.com interface, bypassing traditional clearing agents and enhancing accessibility. The announcement, distributed via Chainwire, is framed as a concrete infrastructure development rather than a speculative market catalyst. Analysts caution against overstating its immediate impact, noting it should be viewed as a reliable data point in a fast-moving market rather than a definitive signal for price action or broad adoption. The update's value lies in its specific technical integration, which offers clearer insight into crypto's evolving themes around market structure and infrastructure, particularly amid sensitivity to regulatory and macro headlines. The report emphasizes grounding conclusions in the actual project details, avoiding sweeping narratives, and monitoring follow-up data to confirm any longer-term trends.

bitcoinist07/15 22:37

Blockchain.com Integrates Polymarket Oracle Feeds Supporting Election Speculation

bitcoinist07/15 22:37

The Strongest Whale in the World Cup Prediction Market? Trades 380 Times a Day, Rakes in $10.32 Million

A user nicknamed "swisstony" has emerged as a dominant "whale" on the prediction market platform Polymarket, reportedly earning $10.32 million in just one month, with total historical profits reaching $18.62 million. The account, active since July 2025, has gained significant attention, amassing over 922,000 profile views. Analysis reveals an exceptionally high-frequency, algorithmic trading strategy. The account has executed 139,617 predictions, averaging roughly 380 trades per day, suggesting API-driven automation. Its overall win rate is a modest 52.9%, but through massive scale and position management, it amplifies a positive expected value (EV). The core strategy appears dual-tracked. First, it places large bets (often $400k-$1M) *against* (betting "NO") heavily favored teams like Germany or England when their implied market probability is perceived as too high, yielding substantial returns when these teams lose. Second, it allocates small amounts ($thousands) to extreme long-shot outcomes with very low implied probabilities (0.2%-1.2%). While most of these "lottery" bets fail, the occasional huge payoff (sometimes over 100x return) significantly boosts overall profits. The account's bio, "trash panda," aptly describes this approach of profitably sifting through market inefficiencies and tiny price discrepancies.

marsbit07/13 09:22

The Strongest Whale in the World Cup Prediction Market? Trades 380 Times a Day, Rakes in $10.32 Million

marsbit07/13 09:22

Making a Fortune of $10.32 Million: The World Cup Money-Printing Tactic of a Polymarket Whale

**Earning $10.32 Million: A Polymarket Whale's World Cup Profit Strategy** While teams battle for the World Cup trophy, a hidden whale nicknamed "swisstony" has been quietly making a fortune on the prediction market Polymarket. This account, created around July 2025, boasts total profits of $18.62 million, with $10.33 million earned in the past month alone. With a 52.9% win rate, it has placed over 139,600 predictions, averaging about 380 trades per day—indicating it is likely a high-frequency quantitative bot. The account's signature "trash panda" aptly describes its strategy: sifting through vast market data and tiny price discrepancies to build wealth. Its current holdings are heavily concentrated on the France vs. Spain semi-final, including a roughly $160,000 bet against France. Analysis shows two core tactics driving its success: 1. **High-Volume "Anti-Favorite" Bets:** Placing large wagers (often $400k-$1M) against overvalued favorites like Germany or England, buying "No" shares at favorable prices when market-implied win probability is 46%-64%. It has recorded over 17 individual profits exceeding $1 million using this method. 2. **"Lottery-Ticket" Bets on Extreme Long Shots:** Allocating small amounts (thousands of dollars) to buy shares priced as low as 0.2¢-1.2¢ on outcomes deemed nearly impossible. While most of these bets lose, the occasional win—like those with payouts over 100x—generates significant profits (over $100,000 per hit) that boost overall returns without risking much capital. This dual approach combines consistent, large-scale profit from correcting major market mispricings with opportunistic, high-reward bets on extreme underdogs. The account exemplifies how systematic, high-frequency execution can amplify a small statistical edge into millions in profits on prediction markets.

Foresight News07/13 04:03

Making a Fortune of $10.32 Million: The World Cup Money-Printing Tactic of a Polymarket Whale

Foresight News07/13 04:03

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