# Dollar Liquidity İlgili Makaleler

Where Did the Money Go? A Survival Guide to the Future 'Dollar Shortage'

"Where Did the Money Go? A Survival Guide for the Coming 'Dollar Shortage'" by Tiezhu Ge discusses the evolving nature of U.S. dollar liquidity, arguing it is no longer solely determined by the Federal Reserve's balance sheet but increasingly by the willingness and ability of Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs) to act as financial intermediaries. The article explains that post-2025, dollar liquidity has shifted from a quantity constraint to an "intermediation constraint." Key regulatory frameworks like Basel III, particularly the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) and Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR), limit banks' capacity to expand their balance sheets. This makes them reluctant to engage in low-return activities like Treasury market-making and repo lending, especially during quarter-ends when regulatory compliance is scrutinized. This can lead to repo rate spikes (SOFR), forced Treasury sell-offs by funds, and heightened market volatility. The analysis framework for dollar tightness includes monitoring offshore dollar funding costs (e.g., cross-currency basis swaps like USD/JPY), onshore repo market pressures (SOFR vs. IORB), and bank behavior (e.g., use of the Fed's Standing Repo Facility). The author warns that without SLR relief, a scenario of easy monetary policy but tight credit could prevail. This creates asymmetric risks where liquidity can vanish quickly, potentially causing simultaneous stock and bond market declines (breaking the 60/40 portfolio). The guide advises holding cash for defense and considering gold/commodities as hedges, while cautioning that low-liquidity assets are highly vulnerable to sudden crashes.

marsbit01/05 09:34