# Сопутствующие статьи по теме War

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "War", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Congress Targets Crypto Prediction Markets With 4 Bills Banning War And Assassination Bets

US Congress is intensifying regulatory pressure on crypto prediction markets with the introduction of the BETS OFF Act, the fourth such legislative effort since January. Sponsored by Senator Chris Murphy and Rep. Greg Casar, the bill aims to ban betting on sensitive events including terrorism, assassinations, wars, and any occurrences where the outcome is known or can be influenced. The legislation extends US jurisdiction to offshore platforms, mandates payment processors to block related transactions, and imposes criminal penalties on US-based promoters. This action follows suspicious trading activity, notably on Polymarket, where large, anonymous bets were placed and won substantial sums just hours before US military actions against Iran and Venezuela. Lawmakers express concern that such markets create dangerous conflicts of interest, allowing individuals with insider knowledge to profit from and potentially influence government decisions. The bill joins three others introduced since January, all seeking to prohibit betting on government actions, terrorism, and assassinations, reflecting broad bipartisan and public support for such restrictions.

bitcoinist03/19 10:03

Congress Targets Crypto Prediction Markets With 4 Bills Banning War And Assassination Bets

bitcoinist03/19 10:03

Why Did the War Safe-Haven Logic Suddenly Fail? Gold Fell, but Bitcoin Rose

In a surprising turn of events, the conventional "safe haven" logic during wartime appears to have broken down. When the US and Israel launched a military strike against Iran on February 28, gold—traditionally a go-to asset during crises—briefly spiked but then fell by nearly 10% over two weeks, dropping to around $5,020. Meanwhile, Bitcoin surged over 20%, rebounding from $63,000 to above $75,000, outperforming gold, the S&P 500, and Nasdaq. The divergence stems from differing underlying mechanisms. Gold was suppressed by rising inflation expectations triggered by the conflict. Soaring oil prices—due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—led markets to anticipate prolonged high interest rates from the Fed, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. Additionally, central banks potentially reducing gold reserves further weakened its support. Bitcoin’s rally, however, was driven by multiple factors: a technical rebound after a 50% drop from its peak, its 24/7 trading availability (allowing it to absorb panic selling and buying when traditional markets were closed), strong inflows into US Bitcoin ETFs, and its practical portability during conflict—enabling easy cross-border value transfer via memorized seed phrases, unlike physical gold. The episode highlights that gold’s safe-haven status isn’t unconditional—it falters when war-induced inflation keeps rates high. Bitcoin, while not yet a proven safe haven, demonstrated unique structural advantages in a crisis. The outcome challenges simplistic narratives and suggests "hedging risk" now depends on whether one is mitigating immediate dangers or betting on future monetary shifts.

比推03/17 12:32

Why Did the War Safe-Haven Logic Suddenly Fail? Gold Fell, but Bitcoin Rose

比推03/17 12:32

The Two Weeks When the King of Safe Havens Failed, Bitcoin Quietly Outperformed Everything

The article analyzes the divergent performance of gold and Bitcoin during a two-week period following a military strike by the US and Israel on Iran. Contrary to traditional expectations, gold, often seen as a safe-haven asset, dropped by nearly 10% from its peak, while Bitcoin surged over 20% from its low, outperforming gold, the S&P 500, and Nasdaq. Gold’s decline is attributed to rising oil prices due to the conflict, which heightened inflation expectations and reduced the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, leading to outflows. Additionally, potential profit-taking by central banks and logistical challenges in moving physical gold during wartime weakened its appeal. Bitcoin’s rise is explained by a combination of factors: technical oversold rebound, 24/7 trading availability during market closures, renewed inflows (e.g., U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw significant inflows while gold ETFs experienced outflows), and its portability advantage in conflict zones, as evidenced by a 700% surge in crypto outflows from Iran. However, Bitcoin’s performance does not fully establish it as a traditional safe haven; it instead functions as a highly liquid, portable asset that absorbs shocks when other markets are closed. The article concludes that the concept of "safe haven" is evolving—gold struggles when inflation and利率 constraints dominate, while Bitcoin benefits from structural and situational advantages, though its identity remains complex and context-dependent.

marsbit03/17 06:34

The Two Weeks When the King of Safe Havens Failed, Bitcoin Quietly Outperformed Everything

marsbit03/17 06:34

Bitcoin in the Flames of War: Reviewing Past Geopolitical Conflicts, Which Stage Is the Crypto Market In Now?

Bitcoin in the Crossfire: A Review of Geopolitical Conflicts and the Crypto Market's Current Phase The article examines Bitcoin's price behavior during four major geopolitical conflicts, analyzing its evolving role as a risk or safe-haven asset. Following a joint U.S.-Israel military strike on Iran in February 2026, Bitcoin plunged 6% in 45 minutes, erasing $128 billion from the crypto market. This initial panic sell-off was attributed to crypto's 24/7 market absorbing pressure while traditional markets were closed. The analysis compares this event to three past conflicts: * **Russia-Ukraine (2022):** An initial 8% crash was followed by a 27% surge within a month, driven by demand from citizens in both countries seeking financial alternatives. However, this geopolitical premium was later erased by macro bearish trends. * **Israel-Gaza (2023):** The market was largely indifferent, with Bitcoin falling only 0.3% on the first day. Its price was soon dominated by internal catalysts like ETF approval expectations, showing regional conflicts had minimal lasting impact. * **India-Pakistan (2025):** A brief, shallow dip was quickly reversed after a ceasefire was announced, leaving almost no trace on the Bitcoin chart. The article concludes that geopolitical events now leave only temporary marks on Bitcoin's price unless they fundamentally disrupt global macro conditions, particularly energy supplies and monetary policy. The key variable for the Iran conflict is the price of oil. If the Strait of Hormuz is not blocked and oil prices stabilize, the war's impact on Bitcoin is expected to fade quickly, following the historical pattern of sharp decline, rebound, and digestion. The current market is seen as being in the digestion phase.

Odaily星球日报03/17 06:21

Bitcoin in the Flames of War: Reviewing Past Geopolitical Conflicts, Which Stage Is the Crypto Market In Now?

Odaily星球日报03/17 06:21

Gold Trapped in the Desert, Borderless Bitcoin: The New Paradigm of Wealth in an Era of War

Title: Gold Trapped in the Desert, Borderless Bitcoin: A New Paradigm of Wealth in Times of War The recent escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran, has led to a severe disruption at Dubai International Airport—a critical global hub for trade and logistics. This crisis has exposed a significant vulnerability in the traditional financial system: the complete paralysis of physical gold transportation. Gold, often regarded as the ultimate safe-haven asset, relies on an intricate and high-security logistics network, including specialized transport, armed guards, and multi-million-dollar insurance policies. However, during times of war, this system collapses. Flights are grounded, airspace becomes unsafe, and gold suppliers are unable to move their inventories. As a result, gold traders in Dubai are forced to sell at discounts of up to $30 per ounce to avoid mounting storage costs, insurance premiums, and opportunity costs—highlighting the irony of a避险资产 becoming a financial burden. In contrast, Bitcoin demonstrates unparalleled resilience in such crises. While its price may experience volatility during geopolitical turmoil, its true value lies in its non-physical, censorship-resistant nature. Unlike gold, Bitcoin does not require physical transport, is not subject to confiscation at borders, and can be transferred across the globe instantly with just a 12- or 24-word seed phrase. This makes it an ideal store of value for individuals and businesses caught in conflict zones, where traditional financial systems and physical assets fail. The Dubai gold crisis underscores a broader shift in the paradigm of wealth preservation. Physical gold, despite its historical prestige, is constrained by its materiality and dependence on centralized infrastructure. Bitcoin, as a decentralized digital asset, offers a solution that transcends borders, governments, and physical limitations. In an era of increasing geopolitical instability, the ability to carry one’s wealth seamlessly and securely—without the constraints of weight, logistics, or censorship—positions Bitcoin as the modern embodiment of financial sovereignty.

marsbit03/13 08:11

Gold Trapped in the Desert, Borderless Bitcoin: The New Paradigm of Wealth in an Era of War

marsbit03/13 08:11

Trading Moment: Crude Oil, US Dollar, and US Treasury Yields Rise Amid War, Bitcoin Holds Steady Above $70,000 Against Macro Headwinds

Amid escalating US-Iran tensions, Brent crude oil surged past $100 per barrel, driving concerns over supply disruptions and inflationary pressures. This triggered a rise in the US dollar and Treasury yields, while US stock indices fell over 1.5%. The conflict has led to significant oil supply disruptions, with warnings that prices could exceed historical highs if the situation worsens. The Fed's rate cut expectations diminished, with traders pricing in less than one 25-basis-point cut for 2026. Despite macro headwinds, Bitcoin held above $70,000 for four consecutive days, consolidating within a $62,000–$72,000 range. Options data showed $1.8 billion in BTC options expiring, with a max pain point at $69,000. Technical indicators suggest support near short-term cost bases, though long-term holder selling pressure exists around $78,880. Market sentiment is mixed: bears warn of a potential drop below $60,000, while bulls highlight strong institutional buying and technical buy signals. Key data showed continued inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, while fear and greed index indicated extreme fear. Notable market events include a $50 million DeFi slippage incident on Aave and several upcoming token unlocks. Top gainers included Pi Network (up 29.7%) and AI-related tokens.

marsbit03/13 07:47

Trading Moment: Crude Oil, US Dollar, and US Treasury Yields Rise Amid War, Bitcoin Holds Steady Above $70,000 Against Macro Headwinds

marsbit03/13 07:47

Why The Bitcoin Price Could Surge If The US-Iran War Is Resolved

Bitcoin's price has been negatively impacted by geopolitical tensions following US-Israel strikes on Iran, which created a risk-off environment and energy price chaos. However, on-chain data and market structure suggest a potential surge if the US-Iran conflict resolves. Key metrics like RSI, profit-to-loss ratios, and NUPL show modest recovery signs. A resolution would likely stabilize oil prices and improve macro conditions for risk assets like Bitcoin. Derivatives data indicates growing bullish positioning, with rising futures open interest and strong buy-side activity. Additionally, US Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen three consecutive days of inflows, with weekly net inflows increasing to $934 million, supporting potential upward price momentum.

bitcoinist03/13 04:02

Why The Bitcoin Price Could Surge If The US-Iran War Is Resolved

bitcoinist03/13 04:02

Economists Warn: Stock Market Bubble More Fragile Than Replay of 50-Year-Old Oil Crisis

Economist Steve Hanke warns that while the market fears a repeat of the 1979 oil crisis due to Iran-related supply disruptions, the real vulnerability lies in the U.S. stock market's inflated valuations and monetary policy failures. Unlike 1979, today’s oil market is less exposed: Iran’s production share is smaller, U.S. output is higher, and oil intensity has dropped significantly. Hanke argues that inflation is primarily a monetary phenomenon—driven by Fed money supply expansion, not oil prices—and cautions that current equity valuations (PE ratios near 28-29x) are far more fragile than in the late 1970s. He criticizes U.S. sanctions and military intervention in Iran as economically costly and strategically misguided, likely to create long-term geopolitical enemies while destabilizing global markets. The USD remains strong, and "de-dollarization" narratives are baseless. The true risk is not oil shocks but the Fed’s loose policy and speculative market泡沫.

marsbit03/12 03:47

Economists Warn: Stock Market Bubble More Fragile Than Replay of 50-Year-Old Oil Crisis

marsbit03/12 03:47

A New Red Line for Crypto? Washington Targets On‑Chain “Death Bets” In Prediction Markets

A new U.S. bill called the DEATH BETS Act, introduced by Senator Adam Schiff and Representative Mike Levin, aims to explicitly ban prediction market contracts related to terrorism, assassination, war, or an individual’s death on CFTC-regulated platforms. The legislation responds to concerns over platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket offering contracts tied to events such as assassinations, military actions, or political removals. Critics argue these markets allow unethical profiting from real-world violence and human suffering. If passed, the law would push such trading to unregulated offshore platforms while allowing conventional prediction markets (e.g., elections or economic data) to continue. The move signals broader regulatory scrutiny over what crypto-based prediction markets can offer.

bitcoinist03/11 14:32

A New Red Line for Crypto? Washington Targets On‑Chain “Death Bets” In Prediction Markets

bitcoinist03/11 14:32

March 11 Market Summary: The War Still Isn't Over, Oil Prices Drop Another 15%

Market Summary March 11: War Continues, Oil Plunges 15% Wall Street remained indecisive as conflicting signals emerged regarding the Iran conflict. The Dow fell 34 points (-0.07%), the S&P 500 dropped 0.21%, and the Nasdaq barely moved (+0.01%). While Trump claimed the war was "largely over," the White House clarified that military operations were escalating and the Strait of Hormuz remained closed. Energy stocks led declines as oil prices continued to fall. Chip stocks, including Nvidia and Micron, rose on strong demand signals from TSMC. Oil prices crashed another 15%, with Brent at $87.80 and WTI at $83.45. Despite a two-day cumulative drop of over 30%, prices remain 25-30% above pre-war levels. Trump administration comments about war resolution triggered selling, but the Pentagon later emphasized the conflict would continue until "decisive victory." Gold surged 2.44% to $5,228/oz, and silver jumped 6.25%, erasing Monday’s losses. Lower oil prices eased inflation fears, boosting Fed rate cut expectations and safe-haven demand. Bitcoin briefly surpassed $70,000 before retreating to the $69,000–$69,500 range. It faces resistance near $71,500, but institutional buying and potential short squeeze conditions suggest upward momentum. The market’s core conflict remains: trusting Trump’s optimism about war resolution versus the Pentagon’s reality. If diplomacy succeeds, oil may fall below $70 and stocks could rally. If the war persists, oil may rebound above $100, risking another market downturn.

marsbit03/11 01:46

March 11 Market Summary: The War Still Isn't Over, Oil Prices Drop Another 15%