Bitcoin's Key Channel Broken? History Won't Simply Repeat Itself | Invited Analysis
This analysis by Odaily's market analyst Cody examines Bitcoin's recent price action and potential future trajectories. The key technical focus is the breach of Bitcoin's critical upward channel support line, which had been acting as a "lifeline" for the market since the November 21, 2025, low of $80,600.
The report compares the current market structure to the 2021 cycle, noting similarities but cautioning that history does not simply repeat itself. The current correction from the October 2025 high is analyzed as a potential three-wave structure (A-B-C). The recently concluded B-wave rally has potentially ended, and the market is now in a C-wave correction.
Key support levels to watch are identified at $86,000-$86,500, $84,000, and crucially, the $80,000-$80,600 zone (the November low). A decisive break below the channel support, accompanied by a bearish crossover on the daily momentum indicator, could signal a resumption of the downtrend towards these targets. Conversely, holding above the channel could lead to a retest of resistance near $94,500.
The analyst details a successful short trade from the previous week, yielding a 3.76% return, executed based on a confluence of signals from proprietary quantitative models. The weekly and daily charts are currently assessed as bearish. The recommended strategy for the coming week involves preparing for a potential breakdown below the channel with short positions (60% for mid-term, 30% for short-term trades), employing strict risk management with trailing stop-losses.
Odaily星球日报01/26 05:47
