# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Prediction

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Prediction", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

The 4 Truths Behind Polymarket's LP Market-Making Incentives and the Fee Trap

Polymarket, a prediction market platform, has recently shifted its incentive structure towards rewarding Liquidity Providers (LPs) to solve its core problem of low market depth. While most markets remain free, it now charges a taker fee on specific markets (all Crypto markets, NCAAB basketball, and Serie A football) to fund new LP reward programs. The fee is calculated on a symmetric curve, highest near 50% probability. The platform has introduced two main incentive systems: one rewards LPs whose limit orders are executed (Maker Incentives), and another rewards LPs simply for providing resting liquidity, even if orders aren't filled (Liquidity Incentives). A third system allows anyone to sponsor additional rewards for specific markets. A key argument is that the fees paid and rewards earned could be a strong anti-sybil metric for a potential POLY token airdrop, valuing genuine liquidity provision over mere trading volume. However, a counter viewpoint argues the LP program is a potential trap. Critics claim that the displayed ROI for LPs is misleading as it doesn't account for "LP wear and tear"—losses from filled orders that can't be easily exited. They state professional market makers avoid it due to insider trading risks and that the model of subsidizing liquidity with massive daily rewards is unsustainable. The concern is that widespread fee implementation could erase Polymarket's competitive edge over traditional betting platforms. Proposed solutions include a fixed fee on profits only, using a POLY token for native liquidity, and charging for premium products like parlays instead of core markets.

Odaily星球日报03/22 04:08

The 4 Truths Behind Polymarket's LP Market-Making Incentives and the Fee Trap

Odaily星球日报03/22 04:08

Ethereum Price Won’t Crash To $1,500 Until This Happens First, Analyst Reveals

An analyst, Celal Kucuker, suggests that Ethereum is unlikely to crash to $1,500 before first surging to around $2,900. Despite recent volatility, Ethereum has maintained support above $2,000, and key historical levels like $3,350 and $1,850 have already been tested. The analyst predicts ETH will reach $2,950 first, then experience a sharp correction of nearly 50% down to $1,500. However, this would be followed by a significant rebound, potentially rising 400% to new all-time highs around $6,100, likely by late 2026. Another analyst, Ali Charts, views the current price dip as a "generational buy zone," noting that similar levels in the past triggered rallies of at least 100%, potentially pushing Ethereum above $4,000.

bitcoinist03/21 17:01

Ethereum Price Won’t Crash To $1,500 Until This Happens First, Analyst Reveals

bitcoinist03/21 17:01

How Low Can Bitcoin Price Go? Analyst Shares Worst-Case Scenario

Historically, Bitcoin cycles show similarities in bull and bear markets, often involving an average crash of around 80%. Analyst Crypto Patel notes that following this trend could lead to a 77% decline, potentially pushing BTC to around $32,000. However, he believes such a drop is unlikely this cycle and instead expects Bitcoin not to fall below $40,000, making the $40,000–$50,000 range the maximum pain point for investors. Despite the 2024 deviation where Bitcoin hit a new all-time high before the halving, parts of the 4-year cycle remain consistent, with peaks occurring roughly every four years. If this pattern holds, Bitcoin may be entering a bear market, with another major crash expected before a bottom is reached. Following historical trends, the next all-time high could occur between 2028 and 2029.

bitcoinist03/20 17:01

How Low Can Bitcoin Price Go? Analyst Shares Worst-Case Scenario

bitcoinist03/20 17:01

Ethereum Near Bottom? Tom Lee Signals Market Turnaround

Ethereum's price is currently around $2,151, down over 50% from its 52-week high. Bitmine chairman Tom Lee believes the worst may be over, suggesting the market is at or near a bottom. He cites analysis comparing Ethereum's recent price action to the S&P 500's behavior during the 1987 crash and 2011 correction, indicating a potential end to the crypto winter. Lee also notes that ETH's current discount to its realized price is similar to the 2025 cycle low before a recovery. While veteran trader Peter Brandt also suggested a potential bottom, some social media users remain skeptical of Lee's prediction.

TheNewsCrypto03/20 12:41

Ethereum Near Bottom? Tom Lee Signals Market Turnaround

TheNewsCrypto03/20 12:41

Dialogue with Fundstrat Research Director: After Accurately Predicting the Plunge, Bitcoin's $115,000 Target Remains Unchanged, Hyperliquid Aims for $100

In a recent interview, Fundstrat's Head of Crypto Research Sean Farrell maintains a cautious short-term outlook on crypto markets despite his unchanged long-term Bitcoin target of $115,000 by year-end. He accurately predicted the February crash, citing extreme positioning, miner selling, and low cash reserves. Farrell describes the current environment as a "trader's market," advising caution and holding dry powder. He highlights risks from private credit stress, potential lack of follow-through buying after large institutional purchases (like MicroStrategy's), and geopolitical uncertainty. Farrell remains highly bullish on Hyperliquid (HYPE), with a $100 price target. He notes its low 90-day correlation (0.4) to Bitcoin and its massive growth in perpetual futures volume for assets like gold and oil, seeing it as a key portfolio diversifier. Key catalysts for a more bullish stance would be a market capitulation event, a break above key moving averages, or positive regulatory developments, though the Clarity Act's passage faces significant banking lobby opposition. For the upcoming Fed meeting, he advises watching for any shift in the dot plot pushing rate cuts to 2027, which would negatively impact risk assets.

marsbit03/20 05:19

Dialogue with Fundstrat Research Director: After Accurately Predicting the Plunge, Bitcoin's $115,000 Target Remains Unchanged, Hyperliquid Aims for $100

marsbit03/20 05:19

Crypto Morning Brief: Prediction Market Kalshi Raises Over $1 Billion, Block Recalls Some Laid-Off Employees

Crypto & AI Daily Digest **Key Market Events:** - The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.75%, as expected. - US initial jobless claims for the week of March 14 came in at 205,000, lower than the forecast of 215,000. **Major Funding & M&A:** - Prediction market platform Kalshi raised over $1 billion in a new funding round, doubling its valuation to $22 billion. - OpenAI is acquiring startup Astral to expand its presence in the programming sector. - Animoca Brands announced a strategic investment in AVAX and a partnership with Ava Labs to develop the Avalanche ecosystem, focusing on Asia and the Middle East. **Corporate News:** - **Meta** experienced a significant AI Agent malfunction, leading to a two-hour leak of sensitive company and user data. - **Block** (formerly Square) has quietly recalled some of the employees it laid off in February, with CEO Jack Dorsey admitting the decision may have been a mistake. - **Crypto.com** is cutting approximately 12% of its workforce as part of a company-wide push to integrate enterprise-level AI tools. - **Gemini** has reduced its headcount by about 30% this year and reported an annual loss of approximately $585 million. **Token & Ecosystem Updates:** - The Perle Foundation unveiled the tokenomics for its PRL token, with 37.5% allocated to the community. - Perpetual DEX edgeX has launched a page for its EDGE token airdrop, with claims open until April 1st.

marsbit03/20 01:13

Crypto Morning Brief: Prediction Market Kalshi Raises Over $1 Billion, Block Recalls Some Laid-Off Employees

marsbit03/20 01:13

Analyst Shares Dogecoin Quantitative Roadmap To New All-Time Highs, Here’s What It Says

Cryptocurrency analyst Cryptollica has shared a quantitative roadmap suggesting Dogecoin (DOGE) could reach new all-time highs. The analyst, DOGE is transitioning from a meme-driven asset to one gaining institutional interest. The roadmap identifies $0.08 as a critical "absolute bedrock" support level, where institutional buyers have historically absorbed selling pressure. Currently trading near this level, DOGE is quantitatively refusing to break lower. If the bear market extends, DOGE may bottom around $0.08 before a bullish reversal propels it above $0.50 by late 2026 or early 2027. The analyst highlights a "Terminal Apex" where downward momentum has exhausted, and pricing asymmetry is at a peak. Algorithms are accumulating supply while retail investors panic-sell. Two strategies are outlined: accumulating near current levels just above $0.08, or waiting for a confirmed breakout candle—though that may mean buying at a higher price. At the time of writing, DOGE is trading around $0.095, down over 5% in 24 hours.

bitcoinist03/19 23:31

Analyst Shares Dogecoin Quantitative Roadmap To New All-Time Highs, Here’s What It Says

bitcoinist03/19 23:31

Using AI for Weather Prediction: Earn $200 a Day While Doing Nothing?

Using AI for Weather Prediction: Can You Really Earn $200 a Day? This article explores how to leverage AI and data analysis to profit from weather prediction markets like Polymarket, focusing on Shanghai’s temperature forecasts. The system relies on Shanghai Pudong Airport (ZSPD) weather station data, sourced via Wunderground, rather than general city forecasts. Key insights include: - Temperature data is reported in whole Fahrenheit values in METAR format, not Celsius, affecting precision. - Historical data shows daily high temperatures most frequently occur between 11:00-13:00, peaking at 12:00 in summer (27.6% of days). Three effective prediction methods were implemented: 1. **Integrated Forecasting**: Combines Weather Company (WC) and ECMWF model data, weighted by weather conditions (e.g., sunny days favor WC). 2. **Real-Time Correction**: Uses morning temperature rise data and historical patterns to extrapolate the daily high, adjusted for cloud cover and wind. A Kalman filter dynamically weights real-time data vs. forecasts. 3. **Temperature Trend Model**: Predicts whether the day will be warmer/cooler than the previous day using pre-dawn data (pressure changes, wind, cloud cover, recent trends). It performs best in winter (clear signals) but poorly in autumn (63.7% accuracy). Two failed methods—Fourier analysis (systematic underestimation) and ERA5 peak-time prediction (insufficient precision)—were discarded. Case studies demonstrate the system identifying mispriced market opportunities, such as recognizing nighttime warming from moist air during rainfall, when public sentiment lagged. Limitations include autumn inaccuracy, lack of real-time pressure data, and unresolved coastal wind effects. Ultimately, the goal isn’t perfect accuracy but leveraging informational edges when odds are favorable.

marsbit03/18 12:18

Using AI for Weather Prediction: Earn $200 a Day While Doing Nothing?

marsbit03/18 12:18

Arizona Files Criminal Charges Against Kalshi Over Illegal Gambling Allegations

Arizona has filed a twenty-count case against prediction market platform Kalshi, alleging it operates an illegal gambling business by accepting bets on elections, sports, and individual performance—activities prohibited under state law. Attorney General Kris Mayes emphasized that no company is above state law. Kalshi denies the allegations, claiming it is a federally regulated financial exchange under the CFTC, not a gambling service. The case highlights tensions between state and federal regulatory authority, as a federal judge’s dismissal of Kalshi’s plea allowed state criminal proceedings to advance. This action is part of a broader state-level crackdown on prediction markets, raising debates over whether they should be regulated as gambling or financial markets.

TheNewsCrypto03/18 11:50

Arizona Files Criminal Charges Against Kalshi Over Illegal Gambling Allegations