# Сопутствующие статьи по теме NBA

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "NBA", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Can You Make a Steady Profit by Blindly Following Polymarket's Pre-Game Win Probability to Bet on NBA Games?

The article investigates whether blindly betting on NBA teams with higher pre-game win probabilities on Polymarket guarantees profits. Backtesting data from the 2025-26 regular season (1,096 games) shows that a strategy of consistently betting $100 on the team with the higher pre-game probability resulted in a net loss of $2,054 (ROI: -1.87%), indicating that the market is efficient and prices are accurately set. Further analysis reveals that returns varied significantly by team. Certain teams, such as the Trail Blazers (POR, 19% ROI), 76ers (PHI, 14%), Spurs (SAS, 12%), Lakers (LAL, 11%), and Hornets (CHA, 9%), consistently outperformed market expectations when favored. In contrast, top-performing teams like the Celtics, Knicks, and Nugks had ROIs close to zero or negative, showing their probabilities were efficiently priced. The weakest teams showed extreme ROI variations but had insufficient sample sizes for reliable conclusions. The key takeaway is that blindly following pre-game probabilities is not a profitable strategy overall, but targeting specific teams may yield better results.

marsbit21 ч. назад

Can You Make a Steady Profit by Blindly Following Polymarket's Pre-Game Win Probability to Bet on NBA Games?

marsbit21 ч. назад

Can You Make a Steady Profit by Blindly Following Polymarket's Pre-Game Win Probability to Bet on NBA Games?

**Can You Consistently Profit by Blindly Following Pre-Game Win Probabilities on Polymarket for NBA Games?** A backtest of the entire NBA 2025-26 regular season (1,096 games) was conducted to test the strategy of always betting $100 on the team with the higher pre-game win probability on Polymarket. The results show that this strategy is not profitable. The total amount wagered was $109,600, with a return of $107,545.20, resulting in a net loss of $2,054 and a Return on Investment (ROI) of -1.87%. This indicates that the market is highly efficient, and pre-game probabilities are accurately priced, leaving no simple arbitrage opportunity. In fact, blindly following the market would have been slightly less profitable than betting against it. However, a deeper analysis by team revealed significant differences. Certain teams consistently outperformed market expectations when they were favored to win: * Portland Trail Blazers (POR): 19% ROI * Philadelphia 76ers (PHI): 14% ROI * San Antonio Spurs (SAS): 12% ROI * Los Angeles Lakers (LAL): 11% ROI * Charlotte Hornets (CHA): 9% ROI In contrast, the market was highly efficient for the top-performing teams, offering minimal returns (e.g., Boston Celtics ROI: 4%, Denver Nuggets ROI: -5%). Results for the weakest teams were too inconsistent due to small sample sizes. The key finding is that team-specific factors, rather than the probability percentage itself, drive potential value, making a one-size-fits-all strategy ineffective.

Odaily星球日报21 ч. назад

Can You Make a Steady Profit by Blindly Following Polymarket's Pre-Game Win Probability to Bet on NBA Games?

Odaily星球日报21 ч. назад

$23.3 Million Bet on Stay or Leave: Why Did NBA Star Giannis Antetokounmpo's Investment in Kalshi Spark Public Outrage?

NBA star Giannis Antetokounmpo’s decision to become a shareholder in prediction market platform Kalshi has sparked controversy among fans and commentators. The move came shortly after a high-profile contract on Kalshi regarding his potential trade reached over $23.3 million in volume, the second-largest NBA-related event on the platform after championship betting. Many criticized the partnership as a conflict of interest, especially since Antetokounmpo had been at the center of intense trade rumors leading up to the deadline. Unlike traditional endorsement deals, his equity stake in Kalshi—though under the 1% limit set by the NBA—blurs the line between athlete and gambling-related business owner. While the NBA permits passive investments in gambling entities under its current CBA, critics argue that such involvement risks undermining competitive integrity and public trust. Recent incidents, including NBA personnel arrests related to gambling, have heightened concerns about insider influence and moral hazards. The league has embraced sports betting as a revenue source, but Antetokounmpo’s move highlights growing tensions between financial incentives and sports ethics. In an era where prediction markets influence how games are perceived, the incident raises deeper questions about trust and transparency in professional sports.

marsbit02/09 13:18

$23.3 Million Bet on Stay or Leave: Why Did NBA Star Giannis Antetokounmpo's Investment in Kalshi Spark Public Outrage?

marsbit02/09 13:18

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