# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Interest Rates

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Interest Rates", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

When the Fed is Politically Captured, Is Bitcoin's Historic Opportunity Here?

When the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut and a plan to purchase $40 billion in Treasury bills over 30 days on December 10, 2025, the reaction was unexpectedly pessimistic. Instead of falling, long-term bond yields rose—a sign that markets are pricing in a deeper structural risk: the potential loss of Fed independence. Political pressure is at the heart of this shift. Before the decision, a key Trump economic advisor accurately “predicted” the cut, raising suspicions that the move was politically influenced rather than data-driven. This erosion of trust threatens the foundation of U.S. monetary credibility and, by extension, global confidence in the dollar. In this environment, Bitcoin and crypto assets gain relevance. Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million positions it as a hedge against potential uncontrolled money printing if the Fed succumbs to political pressure. Its decentralized nature also makes it immune to government interference—a key advantage as institutional trust declines. Ethereum and DeFi present an alternative financial infrastructure where transactions are governed by code, not central authority. While stablecoins like USDT and USDC remain dollar-pegged and exposed to dollar risk, decentralized alternatives like DAI could benefit from declining faith in traditional systems. Crypto remains highly risky and volatile, but as traditional systems face credibility crises, its role may shift from speculative asset to a legitimate hedge against sovereign risk.

深潮12/12 09:17

When the Fed is Politically Captured, Is Bitcoin's Historic Opportunity Here?

深潮12/12 09:17

Fed Regional Presidents Secure Rare 'Unanimous Reappointment', Crypto-Friendly Faction Holds Key Positions, 2025 Monetary Policy Tone Initially Set

The Federal Reserve Board unanimously approved the reappointment of 11 regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents for five-year terms, effective March 1 next year. The only exception is the Atlanta Fed president, who previously announced his retirement. This rare unanimous decision, which includes support from all three Trump-appointed governors, resolves a key uncertainty regarding the future composition of the Fed’s monetary policy committee. The reappointments follow comprehensive evaluations by regional boards and come amid speculation that the process could have been contentious due to efforts by Trump-appointed officials to push for major changes at the central bank. The regional Fed presidents, selected by local boards but requiring approval from the Washington-based Board of Governors, hold significant operational responsibilities and rotating voting rights on the Federal Open Market Committee. Their terms are set to expire in early 2026. Meanwhile, markets await the White House's announcement of a successor to Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May 2025, with Trump’s close economic adviser Kevin Hassett seen as a likely candidate.

marsbit12/12 02:45

Fed Regional Presidents Secure Rare 'Unanimous Reappointment', Crypto-Friendly Faction Holds Key Positions, 2025 Monetary Policy Tone Initially Set

marsbit12/12 02:45

Shorting the Dip, Buying the Rally? FOMC Outcome Reveals the Truth Behind Bitcoin (BTC) Price Trends

Based on historical data from 2025, Bitcoin's (BTC) price action around FOMC meetings reveals a distinct pattern: the market often prices in macroeconomic expectations in advance, leading to a "buy the rumor, sell the news" dynamic. Despite the actual policy decisions, BTC typically experiences selling pressure post-announcement, even during rate-cut cycles. Key findings show that BTC declined after most FOMC events in 2025, with the sharpest seven-day drops (-6.9% and -8%) occurring after the two 25-basis-point rate cuts in September and October. In contrast, meetings with unchanged rates resulted in mixed performance, ranging from +6.92% to -4.58%. This counterintuitive reaction is attributed to structural market dynamics rather than macroeconomic fundamentals. Before FOMC meetings, especially in July, September, and October, significant capital inflows and leveraged long positions were observed, leading to reduced spot liquidity. This over-leveraging often meant that any "hawkish" momentum was already priced in, leaving the market vulnerable to a sell-off once the actual decision was announced. Analysts note that FOMC events act more as market reset points than directional catalysts. When policy outcomes are highly anticipated, pre-meeting volatility compresses, and post-announcement volatility expands, creating predictable short-term dislocations. The data suggests that traders should prepare for heightened volatility, with potential retests of key support levels, such as $88,000, following the typical post-FOMC decline.

cointelegraph_中文12/11 05:16

Shorting the Dip, Buying the Rally? FOMC Outcome Reveals the Truth Behind Bitcoin (BTC) Price Trends

cointelegraph_中文12/11 05:16

From 'Stablecoin First Stock' to 'Ankle Cut' in Stock Price: Why Circle Quickly Fell from the Spotlight into a Revaluation Cycle

From "Stablecoin Unicorn" to "Ankle-Cut" Stock Price: Why Circle Quickly Fell from Its Peak into a Revaluation Cycle Circle, the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, experienced a dramatic stock price decline shortly after its IPO in June, dropping from an initial peak of around $260 to approximately $88. This reflects a broader market shift from hype-driven optimism to a more rational reassessment of the stablecoin industry. Multiple factors contributed to this sharp correction. Initially, the stock was significantly overvalued due to market enthusiasm for the "first stablecoin stock" and the high-interest environment that boosted the appeal of its reserve-backed revenue model. As early investors took profits and sentiment cooled, a price correction was inevitable. Increased competition is also pressuring Circle. While USDC is the world's second-largest dollar stablecoin, it faces growing challenges from new stablecoin projects and digital dollar initiatives from traditional financial institutions. The sector is shifting from an oligopoly to intense competition, raising investor concerns about USDC's future growth certainty. Furthermore, macroeconomic interest rate trends pose a fundamental risk to Circle's business model. Its core revenue comes from interest earned on the cash and short-term U.S. Treasuries backing USDC. Expectations that the Federal Reserve may begin a rate-cutting cycle could directly compress this income. Rising operational and distribution costs further squeeze profitability. Analysts hold divergent views on Circle's future. Firms like Mizuho have turned bullish, upgrading the stock and suggesting the sell-off related to its post-IPO lockup expiration may have created a buying opportunity. They point to USDC's continued adoption by mainstream financial institutions. Conversely, analysts at firms like Susquehanna remain pessimistic, maintaining an "Underperform" rating. They warn that lower future interest rates and potential underperformance in USDC growth could continue to pressure the stock price and have lowered their price target. The upcoming end of the post-IPO lockup period, which restricts insiders from selling shares, has added near-term selling pressure, but this is viewed by some as a temporary overhang. Circle's recent Q3 earnings report, which beat expectations for both revenue and profit, shows that these fundamental concerns have not yet materialized, leaving the company's trajectory highly dependent on future interest rates and its ability to maintain and grow USDC's market share amidst fierce competition.

cointelegraph_中文12/10 10:18

From 'Stablecoin First Stock' to 'Ankle Cut' in Stock Price: Why Circle Quickly Fell from the Spotlight into a Revaluation Cycle

cointelegraph_中文12/10 10:18

The Stronger the Consensus, the Greater the Risk: The Market Is 'Eerily Quiet' Amid Rate Cut Expectations

In the context of the upcoming Fed rate decision, market consensus strongly expects a 25 basis point cut, with over 85% probability priced in. However, this high level of agreement means the actual rate cut may not significantly move markets, as it has already been anticipated. The real focus is on the Fed’s forward guidance, particularly the "dot plot" showing policymakers' interest rate projections for 2026. The Fed faces unusual uncertainty due to a recent government shutdown, which delayed key inflation data (CPI) for October and November. This lack of recent data may lead to more ambiguous signals from the Fed, increasing potential market volatility. Three scenarios are outlined: 1. **Baseline (most likely)**: The Fed cuts rates as expected and maintains previous guidance, resulting in minimal market reaction. 2. **Dovish**: The Fed signals more rate cuts in 2026 than previously indicated, potentially boosting risk assets like Bitcoin and equities. 3. **Hawkish**: The Fed emphasizes persistent inflation and limited future cuts, which could strengthen the dollar and pressure crypto and other risk assets. The article’s key argument is that high consensus often implies higher risk, as markets are driven by surprises relative to expectations. Investors are advised to focus on managing position risks amid elevated uncertainty rather than betting on specific outcomes.

比推12/10 05:58

The Stronger the Consensus, the Greater the Risk: The Market Is 'Eerily Quiet' Amid Rate Cut Expectations

比推12/10 05:58

Trump to Conduct 'Final Interview for Fed Chair', Hassett Not Yet a 'Done Deal'

The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair is entering its final stage. Although White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is currently the frontrunner, President Trump has initiated a final round of interviews, indicating the outcome is not yet certain. Trump and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are scheduled to interview former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh this week, among other candidates including Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, and BlackRock executive Rick Rieder. A key concern among some Wall Street investors is that Hassett, perceived as close to the president, might pursue overly aggressive interest rate cuts, potentially unsettling markets. Hassett has recently emphasized the importance of central bank independence and data-driven decisions. The decision is expected in early January. This process occurs against a backdrop of Trump's longstanding criticism of current Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting rates more quickly. The Fed is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points this week.

深潮12/10 03:03

Trump to Conduct 'Final Interview for Fed Chair', Hassett Not Yet a 'Done Deal'

深潮12/10 03:03

When Tether No Longer Clings to the Dollar...

Tether, the issuer of the world's largest stablecoin USDT, is shifting its reserve strategy in anticipation of lower interest rates. While its business model thrived during high-rate periods—earning billions from U.S. Treasury holdings—future Fed rate cuts could reduce its interest income significantly. To adapt, Tether has diversified into gold (over 100 tons) and Bitcoin (over 90,000 BTC), which together make up 12-13% of its reserves. These assets historically perform well in low-rate, high-liquidity environments, potentially offsetting lost Treasury yield. However, rating agencies like S&P have expressed concern, downgrading Tether’s stability rating due to increased exposure to volatile assets like Bitcoin and reduced transparency. The key challenge remains maintaining USDT’s dollar peg while navigating this new macroeconomic phase.

比推12/09 19:55

When Tether No Longer Clings to the Dollar...

比推12/09 19:55

"Pause, Not a Reversal": When Bitcoin Will Break the Lull

The article "Pause, Not a Reversal": When Bitcoin Will Break the Lull" discusses the current state of the cryptocurrency market, which is in a holding pattern ahead of key macroeconomic decisions. According to analysts from Wintermute, the market's attention is focused on upcoming interest rate decisions from the US Federal Reserve (December 10) and the Bank of Japan (December 19). The recent price action is seen as a pause rather than a trend reversal, with liquidity concentrating in Bitcoin and Ethereum. The potential for the Fed to cut rates could improve the investment climate, while concerns exist that the Bank of Japan may raise its rate again, which could cause market stress given Japan's status as a major holder of US debt. Trading volumes have fallen by up to 30% since October, attributed to a shift away from speculative altcoins towards fixed-income instruments. Market expectations for Bitcoin's price by year-end are split between $85,000 and $100,000. The report concludes that in the absence of macroeconomic surprises, cryptocurrency volatility will be driven more by liquidity flows than by fundamental factors.

RBK-crypto12/09 16:14

Hassett: Setting a Six-Month Interest Rate Roadmap 'Irresponsible', Praises Powell's Leadership

White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett emphasized that pre-setting a six-month interest rate path would be "irresponsible," advocating instead for data-dependent monetary policy. In a CNBC interview, he praised Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s leadership in building consensus within the FOMC ahead of an expected rate cut. Hassett avoided specifying the number of rate cuts needed, underscoring the importance of flexibility over rigid forward guidance. He also expressed optimism about AI-driven positive supply shocks, similar to the 1990s tech boom, which could allow the economy to run hotter without inflation. Hassett noted improved bond market conditions and downward trends in Treasury yields, reflecting uncertainty around the Fed’s upcoming decision. His comments highlight the need for adaptive, data-driven policymaking in a complex economic environment.

marsbit12/09 01:06

Hassett: Setting a Six-Month Interest Rate Roadmap 'Irresponsible', Praises Powell's Leadership

marsbit12/09 01:06

A Quick Look at BlackRock's 2026 Investment Guide: Betting on AI U.S. Stocks, Shorting Long-Term U.S. Bonds, AI Financing Wave May Push Up Interest Rates

BlackRock's 2026 Investment Outlook highlights AI as the dominant force reshaping the global economy and market structure. The report emphasizes that AI-driven capital-intensive expansion is breaking through boundaries in finance, energy, and policy, making markets more reliant on a few key drivers. Investors must actively position themselves amid this structural shift, as traditional diversification strategies may no longer suffice. Key themes include: - **AI Investment Surge**: Corporate AI spending is expected to reach $5-8 trillion by 2030, supporting U.S. economic growth even amid a cooling labor market. However, massive upfront investments may require significant debt financing, potentially raising leverage and interest rates. - **Concentrated Market Reliance**: U.S. equity returns are increasingly driven by AI, reducing the effectiveness of traditional diversification. Long-term U.S. Treasuries are viewed unfavorably due to upward pressure on yields from high financing demand. - **Stablecoin Evolution**: Stablecoins are transitioning from crypto tools to bridges between digital and traditional finance, with growing use in payments and cross-border transactions. Regulatory developments, like the U.S. Genius Act, could intensify competition with bank deposits. - **Strategic Allocation Preferences**: BlackRock maintains an overweight stance on U.S. stocks, particularly AI-themed equities, and Japanese stocks due to corporate reforms. It is underweight long-term developed market bonds, including Japanese and European sovereign debt. Emerging markets like India are favored for demographic advantages and strategic positioning. The report advises investors to seek active, granular strategies—such as private markets and hedge funds—to navigate this new era of concentrated, AI-driven growth.

cointelegraph_中文12/08 09:26

A Quick Look at BlackRock's 2026 Investment Guide: Betting on AI U.S. Stocks, Shorting Long-Term U.S. Bonds, AI Financing Wave May Push Up Interest Rates