IOSG Founder: 2025 is a Dark Year for the Crypto Market, So What About 2026?
In a detailed analysis, IOSG Ventures' co-founder argues that 2025, while appearing to be a dark year for crypto with BTC down -5.4% and ETH -12%, actually marks a fundamental structural shift from retail-driven speculation to institutional adoption.
Despite negative price action, institutional inflows were massive: BTC ETFs saw $25 billion in net inflows, pushing AUM to $114-120 billion, with institutions now holding 24% of BTC. Data shows long-term holders sold 1.4 million BTC over the year, which was fully absorbed by corporate treasuries and macro investors, not retail. This indicates a new cycle where stable institutional capital is replacing volatile retail speculation.
Key drivers include the approval of spot BTC ETFs in 2024, aggressive accumulation by firms like BlackRock (now holding more BTC than MicroStrategy), and a favorable U.S. policy environment under the Trump administration, including pro-crypto executive orders and pending legislation.
Looking ahead to 2026, the author expects continued institutional accumulation and policy momentum in H1, potentially driving BTC toward $120K-$150K, though H2 may bring increased volatility due to mid-term elections. The core conclusion is that 2025 was not a market top but the start of a new institutional cycle, with stronger fundamentals and broader adoption ahead.
深潮12/26 03:48