# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Insider Trading

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Insider Trading", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Prediction Markets Don't Predict Truth, They Only Reward Those Who Bet Correctly

The article challenges the core narrative surrounding prediction markets, arguing they do not discover "truth" but merely reward those who bet correctly on future outcomes. It uses two key examples to illustrate this: the profitable bet on Venezuelan President Maduro's arrest, which suggests markets can monetize insider information rather than aggregate public knowledge, and the "Zelensky suit" market, where the outcome was manipulated by large token holders, revealing a failure of governance incentives. The piece contends that as prediction markets grow, attracting Wall Street capital and handling billions in volume, they face increased regulatory scrutiny. This is not due to inaccuracy, but because their accuracy can stem from problematic sources like privileged access. The author asserts that the fundamental activity is simply betting on narratives, and that dressing it up as a superior form of truth-discovery creates unrealistic expectations and philosophical dilemmas. The conclusion is that recognizing prediction markets as high-stakes betting tools, rather than epistemological engines, would lead to healthier development, clearer regulations, and more honest design.

marsbit01/18 06:38

Prediction Markets Don't Predict Truth, They Only Reward Those Who Bet Correctly

marsbit01/18 06:38

When Polymarket Enters the Dow Jones, Prediction Markets Are Becoming Part of Serious News

Polymarket, a prediction market platform, has entered into an exclusive partnership with Dow Jones Media Group. Under the agreement, Polymarket’s real-time prediction probabilities will become the sole source of prediction market data across all Dow Jones consumer platforms, including dedicated data modules, event pages, and customized earnings calendars. This integration will reach audiences of major financial publications such as The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, and MarketWatch. The collaboration signals a significant shift in how news is presented, moving beyond traditional expert analysis and polls to incorporate crowd-sourced, money-backed probabilistic forecasts on elections, economic trends, and cultural events. This endorsement from a highly credible financial news organization suggests prediction markets are increasingly viewed as serious informational tools rather than mere gambling platforms. 2025 has been a breakthrough year for prediction markets, with Polymarket and competitor Kalshi recording nearly $40 billion in trading volume and achieving multibillion-dollar valuations. Polymarket’s notably accurate predictions during the 2024 U.S. elections—where it consistently projected a Trump victory with high certainty—demonstrated the effectiveness of incentive-driven crowd wisdom. However, regulatory challenges remain. While Kalshi holds a CFTC license, it faces legal scrutiny in states like Nevada, where prediction markets are still considered unlicensed gambling. Polymarket has also encountered criticism around potential insider trading, highlighting the lack of clear regulatory frameworks. Despite these issues, the Dow Jones partnership marks a major step toward the mainstream acceptance of prediction markets as a credible supplement to traditional news.

Odaily星球日报01/13 07:27

When Polymarket Enters the Dow Jones, Prediction Markets Are Becoming Part of Serious News

Odaily星球日报01/13 07:27

U.S. Forces Cross Border to Capture President: Why Did Prediction Market Stage 'Calling a Stag a Horse'?

U.S. forces conducted a cross-border operation in Venezuela on January 3, capturing President Nicolás Maduro—an act widely considered a military invasion under international law. However, on the prediction market Polymarket, the contract "Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?" did not resolve as "Yes" despite the event-driven surge in probability to 80%. Instead, the platform updated its rules post-facto, stating that the operation—including Trump’s remarks about “running Venezuela”—did not meet its specific definition of “invasion.” The probability subsequently dropped to 4%. The article suggests regulatory and insider manipulation: Polymarket, though CFTC-regulated, received investment from Donald Trump Jr. last year. On-chain analysis reveals that a new wallet, funded from an account linked to Trump family associate Steven Witkoff, placed a $30,000 bet on “Maduro leaving office” just hours before the operation, turning it into over $400,000. The piece concludes that Polymarket may be manipulated by political and financial elites using asymmetric information and last-minute rule changes to profit at the expense of ordinary traders.

比推01/07 15:35

U.S. Forces Cross Border to Capture President: Why Did Prediction Market Stage 'Calling a Stag a Horse'?

比推01/07 15:35

Insider Trading Might Be the Most Valuable Part of Prediction Markets

An anonymous account on the decentralized prediction market Polymarket achieved a 1,242% return by accurately predicting the arrest of Venezuelan leader Maduro before mainstream media reported the event. This triggered debates over potential insider trading and led U.S. Representative Ritchie Torres to propose the "2026 Financial Prediction Market Public Integrity Act," aiming to regulate such activities in crypto prediction platforms. The incident raised questions about whether prediction markets should prioritize fairness or accuracy. While traditional finance prohibits insider trading to protect retail participants, prediction markets may inherently rely on information asymmetry to produce more accurate forecasts. The core value of these markets lies in truth discovery—aggregating fragmented information into predictive signals—even if it allows informed participants to profit. The proposed legislation faces challenges in enforcement within decentralized environments and may conflict with the fundamental mechanism of prediction markets. Rather than enforcing absolute fairness, which could reduce market efficiency, the article argues that prediction markets should be viewed as tools for revealing truth through transparent, on-chain information flow, even when it involves informational advantages.

比推01/07 13:41

Insider Trading Might Be the Most Valuable Part of Prediction Markets

比推01/07 13:41

Insider Trading Might Be the Most Valuable Part of Prediction Markets

The article "Insider Trading Might Be the Most Valuable Part of Prediction Markets" examines a controversial case on Polymarket where an account achieved a 1242% return by accurately predicting the arrest of Venezuelan leader Maduro before mainstream media coverage. This event sparked debates about insider trading in decentralized prediction markets and led U.S. Representative Ritchie Torres to propose the "2026 Financial Prediction Markets Public Integrity Act," aiming to regulate such activities. The piece argues that while traditional finance bans insider trading to protect retail investors, prediction markets fundamentally serve as "truth discovery" mechanisms. Their core value lies in aggregating fragmented information into accurate price signals, even if it involves informed participants. Preventing insiders from trading could render markets less accurate, as prices would reflect public speculation rather than genuine probabilities. The article concludes that prediction markets should be viewed as tools for uncovering truth through decentralized information aggregation, not as fair trading venues. Blockchain transparency allows hidden information to become public signals through market activity, enabling rapid price correction and collective intelligence. Regulatory attempts to enforce fairness might undermine the predictive efficiency that makes these markets valuable.

marsbit01/07 11:19

Insider Trading Might Be the Most Valuable Part of Prediction Markets

marsbit01/07 11:19

From a "Preemptive Bet" Trade, Understanding the Hottest Web3 Trend of 2025: Prediction Markets

In early January 2025, a significant transaction on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket drew widespread attention. An account invested approximately $32,537 over four days betting that Venezuelan President Maduro would leave office by January 31. The bet was placed hours before related geopolitical news became public, eventually yielding over $400,000 in profit as the event's perceived likelihood surged. This incident highlights the growing influence of prediction markets—a rapidly expanding Web3 sector in 2025. Prediction markets use financial incentives to aggregate dispersed information, allowing participants to trade on event outcomes. Prices reflect collective intelligence, often outperforming traditional polls, as seen during the 2024 U.S. election. Key platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have attracted over $3.15 billion in funding, with Polymarket’s valuation reaching $8–9 billion after a strategic investment from ICE. The sector is projected to grow from $900 million in trading volume in 2024 to $40 billion in 2025, with users increasing from 4 million to 15 million. Unlike gambling, prediction markets use transparent, market-driven pricing and serve as data products for decision-making, attracting researchers and institutional players. Their growth is fueled by regulatory clarity from the CFTC, expanded event categories, and improved technology. However, risks remain, including potential insider trading and market manipulation. Participation is prohibited in mainland China. Nonetheless, prediction markets represent a shift in Web3 toward real-world information infrastructure rather than pure asset speculation.

marsbit01/07 06:37

From a "Preemptive Bet" Trade, Understanding the Hottest Web3 Trend of 2025: Prediction Markets

marsbit01/07 06:37

Polymarket Settlement Disputes Intensify, Ethereum Technical Plans Questioned: What Is the Overseas Crypto Community Discussing Today?

In the past 24 hours, the crypto community focused on several key issues. Polymarket faced significant backlash over its settlement of a prediction market related to the U.S. military action in Venezuela, which was deemed not an "invasion," sparking accusations of arbitrary rule changes and concerns over its oracle-based resolution system. Suspected insider trading emerged, as large bets were placed just hours before the event, leading to calls for restrictions on government officials using prediction markets. Berachain’s TVL plummeted over 90%, attributed to fading hype and lack of sustainable product demand. TON also saw price declines, partly linked to alleged team token sales. On the ecosystem front, Solana’s network health was questioned due to validators delaying transactions to maximize MEV extraction, threatening its real-time processing advantage. Ethereum faced internal debate over its roadmap, with critics arguing it prioritizes minimal trust over practical utility, while technical progress was noted with EIP-7805 for enhanced censorship resistance. Lighter introduced a fee-based buyback mechanism for its token, viewed positively for value capture, while Perp DEX market makers saw compressed margins. Other updates included Infinex’s burn rate clarification, Tempo’s new token standard, and MegaETH’s Coinbase listing speculation.

marsbit01/07 05:06

Polymarket Settlement Disputes Intensify, Ethereum Technical Plans Questioned: What Is the Overseas Crypto Community Discussing Today?

marsbit01/07 05:06

Bubblemaps Denies Maduro Polymarket Insider Link to WLFI

Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps has refuted viral allegations of insider trading on Polymarket related to a prediction market on Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro’s potential ouster. The claims suggested that newly created accounts placed large “yes” bets just before news broke of Maduro’s reported capture, turning $60,000 into over $630,000. On-chain analysis initially pointed to wallet funding via Coinbase and a connection to World Liberty Financial through transaction patterns and domain naming. Bubblemaps dismissed these claims as based on weak assumptions, arguing that matching transaction timing and amounts does not prove ownership or insider links. Expanding the analysis to include multiple assets revealed around 20 wallets with similar patterns, indicating the evidence was not uniquely tied to the accused trader. The firm criticized the narrative as “clickbait” and cautioned against extreme storytelling undermining credible on-chain analysis. No formal investigation or direct evidence linking the trader to WLFI has been announced.

TheNewsCrypto01/06 10:15

Bubblemaps Denies Maduro Polymarket Insider Link to WLFI

TheNewsCrypto01/06 10:15

Programmer Earns $75K Using AI Bot to Track Polymarket Trades

A programmer earned $75,000 in profits by using an AI-powered bot to monitor suspicious trading activity on the prediction market platform Polymarket. The custom system, built with Claude AI and Cursor, tracks unusual betting patterns by analyzing new wallets with no history, unusually large bets, and repeated entries into political prediction markets where insider knowledge may create pricing inefficiencies. The bot serves as an alert mechanism rather than an automated trading tool, scanning Polymarket’s API to flag potential opportunities hours before major events—such as a trade related to Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro—allowing the developer to enter positions at lower prices. The system processes data faster than manual methods but leaves final trading decisions to the user. Initial testing and a single day of operation generated the reported profit.

TheNewsCrypto01/05 12:49

Programmer Earns $75K Using AI Bot to Track Polymarket Trades

TheNewsCrypto01/05 12:49

Venezuela Attack: US Lawmaker To Introduce Prediction Market Bill Targeting Insider Trading

US Representative Ritchie Torres plans to introduce a bill banning government officials from insider trading on prediction markets. This follows reports that three recently created wallets netted over $630,000 in profits on Polymarket by betting on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro just hours before a US military operation. The proposed "Public Integrity In Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026" would prohibit federal officials from trading prediction contracts when possessing nonpublic government information. Meanwhile, the crypto market remained resilient, with Bitcoin rising 2.13% to $91,414 and the total market cap reaching $3.08 trillion.

bitcoinist01/04 15:04

Venezuela Attack: US Lawmaker To Introduce Prediction Market Bill Targeting Insider Trading

bitcoinist01/04 15:04

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