# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Geopolitics

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Geopolitics", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

TACO Is Outdated, Wall Street Is Betting Heavily on NACHO

The article discusses a shift on Wall Street from the "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out) trading theme to a new one called "NACHO" (Not A Chance Hormuz Opens). This change reflects the market's adaptation to a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz following U.S.-Israel airstrikes on Iran in late February. Unlike TACO, which bet on former President Trump de-escalating crises, NACHO bets on a protracted stalemate keeping the vital oil chokepoint shut. Key evidence for the NACHO regime includes a fundamental decoupling of oil prices and the S&P 500 since late March. While Brent crude has remained elevated (around $109 in May), the stock index has rallied to new highs. The market is pricing in a long but finite period of high oil prices, as seen in the steep futures curve. This theme is backed by real money in three derivatives markets: soaring war risk insurance for ships, an inverted oil futures structure, and evaporating expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. Within the equity market, the NACHO dynamic has caused a sharp divergence, with the energy sector (XLE) vastly outperforming the transportation sector (IYT), which is highly sensitive to fuel costs. The article notes a concrete deadline for this trade: early June. Analysts warn that global commercial oil inventories could approach critical "operational pressure" levels by then, potentially triggering more severe market disruptions if the Strait remains closed. Prediction markets currently assign a very low probability to the Strait reopening normally before June.

marsbit05/10 01:32

TACO Is Outdated, Wall Street Is Betting Heavily on NACHO

marsbit05/10 01:32

Peace Talks Hit an Impasse Again, U.S. Stocks Retreat from Highs, Can Bitcoin Hold the $80,000 Level?

Peace Talks Stalemate Sinks Stocks, Tests Bitcoin's $80K Support Optimism over a potential U.S.-Iran peace deal, which briefly propelled the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to record highs, evaporated within 24 hours. Iran dismissed key U.S. proposals regarding uranium enrichment and Strait of Hormuz access, reversing market sentiment. U.S. stocks fell, led by semiconductors and small caps, while oil prices whipsawed violently. The core narrative is a binary market bet on war or peace, creating extreme volatility. The probability of a deal by mid-May dropped to 20%. Oil (Brent) briefly crashed 12% before recovering to around $100, but a shift in its market structure hinted at ample physical supply despite geopolitical risk. Bitcoin fell roughly 1.56%, finding support near $80,000. The pullback was considered structurally healthy, backed by strong institutional inflows into U.S. ETFs and rising long-term holder conviction. Ethereum gained on positive U.S. crypto regulation hopes. In equities, major indices declined with the Russell 2000 hit hardest. The "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks were a rare bright spot, but the semiconductor sector sold off sharply. Notably, high-beta momentum stocks suffered dramatically worse losses than the broader market. Upcoming U.S. non-farm payrolls data is the next key catalyst. Treasury yields rose with oil, the dollar was steady, and gold/silver gained on a mix of inflation and safe-haven demand. European markets also fell. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved, keeping markets on edge.

marsbit05/09 03:43

Peace Talks Hit an Impasse Again, U.S. Stocks Retreat from Highs, Can Bitcoin Hold the $80,000 Level?

marsbit05/09 03:43

Will the Continued Shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz Trigger an Oil and Gas Supply Crisis?

The prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy chokepoint, is evolving from a military conflict into a severe stress test for worldwide energy trade. Despite a ceasefire, transit remains minimal due to persistent threats from Iran, which uses drones, small boats, mines, and a new transit permit/fee system to effectively control the strait. Daily vessel traffic has plummeted from about 135 to under 10 ships, trapping over 1500 commercial vessels. The U.S. has initiated "Project Freedom" to escort ships, but Iran condemns it as a violation. The crisis is forcing a fundamental re-pricing of risk and cost for using this route, which normally carries about one-fifth of global oil and LNG supplies. Even if a political deal is reached, restoring full, trusted transit will be slow due to mine clearance needs, security concerns, and eroded market confidence. Major oil producers like Saudi Arabia are using alternative pipelines, but capacities are limited and routes are also vulnerable. Iran has signaled its intent to institutionalize control over the strait post-conflict, leveraging it as a geopolitical tool. The standoff underscores how Iran can paralyze this vital passage without a traditional navy, creating a lasting impact on global energy security and trade logistics.

marsbit05/08 16:15

Will the Continued Shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz Trigger an Oil and Gas Supply Crisis?

marsbit05/08 16:15

TechFlow Intelligence Agency: Anthropic Seeks $50 Billion Funding at $900 Billion Valuation, Zcash Surges 70% in a Week

TechFlow Intelligence Briefing: Key developments in AI, crypto, hardware, and global markets. **AI:** Anthropic is reportedly seeking $50B in funding at a ~$900B valuation, positioning it as a major rival to OpenAI. It also published research on making AI "thinking" interpretable. Google DeepMind released AlphaEvolve, a Gemini-powered programming agent for scientific research. **Crypto/Web3:** Zcash surged 70% in a week, reigniting interest in privacy coins. Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz spiked oil prices and market volatility. **Chip/Hardware:** SK Hynix awarded massive bonuses due to AI-driven demand, while Samsung faces potential strikes. TSMC's April revenue grew 17.5% year-on-year. Nvidia-backed CoreWeave faces valuation scrutiny ahead of its earnings. **Tech Companies:** Cloudflare announced a ~20% workforce reduction. Sony PS5 sales dropped amid a memory chip crisis and price hikes. Apple is nearing production of camera-equipped AirPods for AI features. **Markets:** Kodiak AI raised $100M at a steep discount, causing its stock to plunge 37%. US stocks fell amid Middle East tensions. **New Trends:** China unveiled the "Hanyuan 2," a low-power dual-core neutral atom quantum computer. Russia announced the Rassvet satellite network to compete with Starlink. **The Undercurrent:** Today's news highlights a central tension: capital is flooding into perceived certainties like AGI while retreating from uncertainties, seen in layoffs and geopolitical risks, asking where sustainable growth lies.

marsbit05/08 12:33

TechFlow Intelligence Agency: Anthropic Seeks $50 Billion Funding at $900 Billion Valuation, Zcash Surges 70% in a Week

marsbit05/08 12:33

Ray Dalio's Latest Interview: Can the U.S. Still Escape the Cycle of Decline?

In a comprehensive interview, Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, analyzes whether the US can escape its historical "great cycle" of decline. He argues the nation faces a confluence of structural pressures, not a single crisis. Key points include: 1. **The Debt Cycle:** Unsustainable fiscal deficits and rising debt-to-income ratios are eroding national capacity, constraining spending on defense, welfare, and global commitments. 2. **Internal Political & Social Conflict:** Deep wealth gaps and value differences fuel intense political polarization. Addressing deficits becomes a zero-sum political battle over "who pays and who benefits," making consensus nearly impossible. 3. **Erosion of the World Order:** The post-1945 US-led, rules-based international system is breaking down, reverting to a state of great-power competition and conflict where raw power, not multilateral rules, resolves disputes. 4. **Currency & Safe Assets:** While the Chinese yuan may gain use as a medium of exchange, Dalio doubts it will become a primary global store of wealth. In an era of fiat currency debasement, assets like gold are regaining prominence as safe havens. 5. **AI's Dual Role:** Artificial Intelligence could boost productivity and help manage debt, but it also risks exacerbating wealth inequality, job displacement, and geopolitical tensions. Dalio concludes the US is in a period of increasing disorder, with debt, domestic strife, and international realignments converging. The critical factors for national recovery are foundational: improving education and civic素养, fostering social cohesion and productivity, and avoiding war—both civil and international. The path forward depends less on markets and more on these fundamental societal choices.

marsbit05/08 04:32

Ray Dalio's Latest Interview: Can the U.S. Still Escape the Cycle of Decline?

marsbit05/08 04:32

Can Iran 'Control' the Strait of Hormuz?

Iran has announced a comprehensive plan to assert control over the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil shipping chokepoint. The proposed measures include requiring all vessels to obtain Iranian permission for passage, imposing fees for security, environmental protection, and navigation management—preferably paid in Iranian rials—and absolutely banning Israeli ships. Vessels from countries deemed hostile by Iran’s top security bodies may also be barred. Analysts suggest Iran’s motives are multifaceted: increasing pressure on the U.S. and Israel by leveraging control over oil transit to influence global prices and inflation; creating a new revenue stream, potentially exceeding $7.7 billion annually, to counter Western sanctions and support postwar reconstruction; and using transit permissions as bargaining chips in future negotiations, notably with the U.S. However, the plan faces significant practical and diplomatic challenges. Enforcing comprehensive interception and fee collection in the busy waterway, patrolled by international military forces, would be difficult. The U.S. has already countering with a blockade of Iranian ports and threats to intercept any ship paying fees, potentially strangling Iran’s oil exports and fee revenue. Broad international opposition, led by European and Gulf states, and legal controversies further complicate implementation. The proposal may ultimately serve more as a negotiating tactic than a feasible policy, with its execution remaining highly uncertain.

marsbit04/27 01:30

Can Iran 'Control' the Strait of Hormuz?

marsbit04/27 01:30

Not Just DeepSeek, Big Tech Companies Want to 'Abandon' NVIDIA

The article discusses how major tech companies are attempting to reduce their reliance on Nvidia, despite its dominant position in the AI chip market, where it enjoys a 75.2% GAAP gross margin. Companies like DeepSeek are adapting their models to run on domestic alternatives such as Huawei’s Ascend chips, while in the U.S., Google and Meta are developing their own AI chips (TPU and MTIA series) to complement external partnerships. Nvidia’s CEO, Jensen Huang, acknowledges that Moore’s Law is fading and that export restrictions may slow China’s AI development but could ultimately spur a self-sufficient ecosystem. Notably, Chinese firms are leading in open-source models, which could eventually challenge Nvidia’s monopoly. OpenAI is actively diversifying away from Nvidia, signing a $20 billion deal with Cerebras, a startup using wafer-scale chips to reduce latency and cost. Cerebras, founded by Andrew Feldman, aims to challenge Nvidia with its unique architecture but faces financial and competitive risks, including heavy dependence on OpenAI and geopolitical tensions. While competition is intensifying with players like AMD and Groq (which partnered with Nvidia), the overall demand for compute continues to grow. The market is shifting toward a diversified supplier model, though Nvidia remains a formidable force.

marsbit04/24 12:29

Not Just DeepSeek, Big Tech Companies Want to 'Abandon' NVIDIA

marsbit04/24 12:29

Bitwise: Bullish on Bitcoin's Performance in the Second Half of the Year, AI and Regulation Will Spark a New Altcoin Season

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and Research Lead Ryan Rasmussen express strong bullish sentiment on Bitcoin's long-term prospects, suggesting that its $1 million price target may be too conservative. They argue Bitcoin serves a dual role: as digital gold and a potential global settlement asset, especially amid declining trust in traditional monetary systems. Despite a weak Q1 2026 where nearly all crypto assets and prices saw double-digit declines, the analysts remain optimistic due to strong forward-looking catalysts, including institutional adoption via Bitcoin ETFs from major firms like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. Geopolitical instability, such as Iran’s mention of using Bitcoin for international payments, increases the value of Bitcoin’s “out-of-the-money call option” as a non-political, global settlement currency. This enhances its appeal beyond a mere store of value. . Additionally, Hougan highlights that a clearer regulatory token framework under current SEC leadership, combined with AI efficiency gains and high-performance blockchains, could fuel a new “altseason” by late 2026. This may lead to a wave of legitimate, value-capturing token projects, unlike the earlier ICO boom. . Bitwise also announced an Avalanche ETF, citing its unique architecture and rapid growth in real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, which has surged 10x to nearly $30 billion in two years. The firm believes Layer 1 blockchains are still early in their growth cycle, with significant potential ahead.

marsbit04/24 05:37

Bitwise: Bullish on Bitcoin's Performance in the Second Half of the Year, AI and Regulation Will Spark a New Altcoin Season

marsbit04/24 05:37

US Military Confirms Running Bitcoin Node, Four-Star General Calls It a 'Power Projection Tool'

U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) Commander Admiral Samuel Paparo has confirmed that the military command is operating a Bitcoin network node and conducting cybersecurity tests using the protocol. In testimonies before the Senate and House Armed Services Committees, Paparo characterized Bitcoin not as a financial asset but as a "computer science tool" and a "tool of national power." He emphasized its value in cybersecurity, particularly the proof-of-work mechanism, which imposes physical costs on attackers and can be applied in both offensive and defensive cyber operations. This marks a significant shift in the Pentagon’s narrative, moving from targeting illicit finance to recognizing Bitcoin as a technology with national security implications. INDOPACOM is not mining Bitcoin but is using the node for monitoring and operational testing. The move signals the U.S. military’s direct participation in the Bitcoin network and reflects growing geopolitical interest in the protocol’s strategic potential.

marsbit04/23 04:40

US Military Confirms Running Bitcoin Node, Four-Star General Calls It a 'Power Projection Tool'

marsbit04/23 04:40

Currency and Stock Barometer丨Global Listed Companies' Weekly Net Purchase of BTC Exceeds $2.5 Billion, Hitting a Recent High; Bitmine Increases Holdings by 101,627 ETH Last Week, the Largest Increase in Nearly Four Months (April 21)

Global public companies' net Bitcoin purchases surged to $2.542 billion last week, hitting a recent high, with Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) leading by adding 34,164 BTC. Bitmine significantly increased its ETH holdings by 101,627, the largest in four months. Amid easing Middle East tensions, U.S. and Asian equities rallied, with the S&P 500 reaching new highs. Analysts note a shift in focus to economic fundamentals, though oil price volatility persists. Meanwhile, Bitcoin mining firms sold over 32,000 BTC in Q1 2026, exceeding 2025’s total sales. Tether backed SDEV’s $134 million raise to bolster stablecoin ecosystem development, while BNB Plus faces potential Nasdaq delisting due to low share price.

marsbit04/21 09:04

Currency and Stock Barometer丨Global Listed Companies' Weekly Net Purchase of BTC Exceeds $2.5 Billion, Hitting a Recent High; Bitmine Increases Holdings by 101,627 ETH Last Week, the Largest Increase in Nearly Four Months (April 21)