# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Finance

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Finance", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Why Did It Take Prediction Markets Nearly 40 Years to Explode?

This article explores the explosive growth of prediction markets in 2025, which saw an estimated 400% increase in trading volume, reaching $40 billion, and a user base growing to 15 million. It examines why, despite existing since the 1980s (e.g., Iowa Electronic Markets), prediction markets only recently surged in popularity. Key factors for the 2025 boom include major regulatory progress. The CFTC approved platforms like Polymarket as designated contract markets, allowing them to operate legally in the US. This compliance enabled wider distribution, integration into major apps like Robinhood, and attracted institutional investment, with both Polymarket and Kalshi securing over $1 billion in new funding. Regulatory clarity also allowed for a diversification of event types, including sports and crypto, which now dominate trading volume. The article contrasts prediction markets with traditional gambling, noting the US government distinguishes them based on their "positive externalities." Unlike sportsbooks that set odds, prediction markets facilitate peer-to-peer betting, aggregating collective knowledge to improve information efficiency and decision-making, which regulators view as socially beneficial despite gambling-like elements. A provocative section discusses insider trading. Some argue that insiders using non-public information on anonymous, decentralized platforms like Polymarket can enhance market accuracy and serve as a form of information discovery. However, this may harm retail trader trust and long-term liquidity. In conclusion, the convergence of regulatory approval, product improvement, and AI-driven tools created a perfect environment for prediction markets to thrive in 2025, though questions about fairness, competition, and global adoption remain open.

marsbit12/31 03:49

Why Did It Take Prediction Markets Nearly 40 Years to Explode?

marsbit12/31 03:49

The Full Story of USDe's Depegging on October 11: A $19 Billion Lesson in Crypto Financial Engineering

On October 11, 2025, USDe, a major yield-bearing stablecoin (YBS), depegged on Binance, triggering a cascade of liquidations and resulting in a record-breaking $19 billion liquidation event in crypto history. While mainstream media termed it a "crypto crash," the incident was fundamentally a massive exposure of tail risks in complex financial engineering. USDe, created by Ethena, is a synthetic dollar protocol that maintains delta-neutral positions by hedging spot assets with perpetual futures contracts, capturing returns from funding rates, staking yields, and basis trades. At its peak, USDe reached a $14 billion market cap, offering APYs as high as 27%, and was touted as an "Internet Bond." However, a significant portion of its growth was driven by leveraged lending on external platforms. Binance’s launch of a 12% APY incentive program encouraged users to employ recursive lending with up to 5x leverage, using Binance’s own USDe/USDT pair as the sole price oracle. This created $8.4 billion in highly leveraged exposure outside Ethena’s core delta-neutral system. The collapse began when Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, causing a sharp market downturn. As crypto assets fell, perpetual funding rates turned negative. Large USDe holders sold on Binance, driving its price down. Once it fell below $0.82, it triggered mass liquidations of leveraged positions. In just 23 minutes, USDe plummeted to $0.65 on Binance due to cascading liquidations and liquidity failure. In contrast, on-chain DEXs like Uniswap saw only a brief 2% depeg, and DeFi lending protocols like Aave experienced minimal liquidations due to robust oracle mechanisms. Ethena’s core protocol remained solvent and operational throughout, indicating the failure was specific to Binance’s market structure. The event underscores critical lessons: the dangers of excessive leverage, reliance on single-point price oracles, and the misperception of complex yield products as risk-free savings. It highlights that stability in crypto depends on robust mechanisms, deep liquidity, and sustained confidence—not just financial engineering.

marsbit12/29 09:07

The Full Story of USDe's Depegging on October 11: A $19 Billion Lesson in Crypto Financial Engineering

marsbit12/29 09:07

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