Over 80% of New Tokens Peak at TGE, The Root Cause and Cure for Web3's False Prosperity Lies Here
More than 80% of new tokens in 2025 have seen their Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) fall below their initial TGE valuation, with a median decline of 71%. Only 15% of tokens performed better post-TGE. This trend indicates that for most projects, the token generation event (TGE) represents their peak valuation.
Statistical analysis of 113 token launches reveals that common success metrics—such as high fundraising amounts, large social media followings, and listings on major exchanges—have little to no statistical correlation with token performance. Projects raising more capital (e.g., over $10 million) did not perform better than those raising less (e.g., $300k–$500k). In fact, lower-funded projects often delivered higher returns per dollar raised.
Social community size proved irrelevant; most "communities" are speculative and disappear when token prices fall. Token pricing also matters: tokens priced between $0.01–$0.05 at launch had the highest survival rate, while those priced outside this range generally failed.
AI-related tokens outperformed others in both peak and current returns, while Gaming and DeFi sectors struggled significantly. Launch platforms (IDOs/IEOs) did not ensure success—most tokens on these platforms fell 70–93% post-launch.
The root issue is a market that prioritizes hype over substance, narrative over data, and promises over products. To survive in 2026, projects should focus on lean fundraising, realistic token pricing, product-market fit, and tangible metrics like user retention and revenue—rather than vanity metrics. The old playbook is broken; a new, pragmatic approach is essential.
Odaily星球日报12/23 09:55
