# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Derivatives

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Derivatives", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

Arkstream Capital: When Crypto Assets Return to 'Financial Logic' in 2025

In 2025, the crypto asset market shifted from being driven by narratives and single-chain cycles to being dominated by external financial logic. Key changes include: - **Externalized Pricing Framework**: Market dynamics are now influenced by policy/regulation, macro liquidity/risk appetite, and leverage/risk control, rather than internal crypto cycles. - **Multiple Capital Inflows**: Capital enters through ETFs (standardized allocation), stablecoins (on-chain settlement), corporate treasuries (DAT driving spot demand), and IPOs (securitizing crypto infrastructure). - **Industry Evolution**: Shift from narrative-driven to product-line-driven growth, with stablecoin stratification, institutionalized perpetual trading, and prediction markets expanding into event contracts. - **IPO Resurgence**: 9 crypto-related companies completed IPOs in 2025, raising ~$7.74B, with valuations from $1.8B to $23B. Key 2026 candidates include Anchorage Digital, OKX, Kraken, and Tether. - **Observable Metrics**: Stablecoin supply grew to ~$300B+, IBIT saw $25.4B net inflows, DAT adoption reached hundreds of firms, and on-chain perpetuals hit ~$1.08T in monthly volume. The market is now more integrated with traditional finance, with cycles aligning closer to macro risk assets. IPO activity provides public market valuation anchors, enhancing capital efficiency and exit mechanisms. Key sectors like stablecoins, derivatives, and prediction markets are maturing, emphasizing sustainability over speculation. The outlook for 2026 depends on institutional continuity, capital sustainability, and risk management resilience.

marsbit01/02 09:08

Arkstream Capital: When Crypto Assets Return to 'Financial Logic' in 2025

marsbit01/02 09:08

XRP’s supply squeeze builds despite $1B escrow release – Here’s why!

Despite a bearish overall outlook for 2025, XRP's market is showing signs of a potential supply squeeze. While a 36% Q4 drop erased all H1 gains, key on-chain metrics suggest underlying resilience. Exchange reserves dropped significantly, with $300 million worth of XRP leaving exchanges in Q4 alone, falling from 3 billion to 2.6 billion for the year. This is occurring even as a routine $1 billion escrow release adds potential selling pressure, with typically 20% of unlocked tokens hitting the market. Technically, XRP has consolidated around $1.80 for weeks, and derivatives data shows a strong 70%+ long skew, indicating traders are positioning for an upside and potentially frontrunning a local bottom. Regulatory progress provides a further tailwind for the asset.

ambcrypto01/01 18:02

XRP’s supply squeeze builds despite $1B escrow release – Here’s why!

ambcrypto01/01 18:02

Crypto Predictions 2026: CoinFund President Shares His Forecast

Christopher Perkins, President of CoinFund, outlines seven key predictions for the crypto industry in 2026. He anticipates a major surge in mergers and acquisitions, projecting deal value to reach $25 billion, driven by consolidation and cross-industry integration. Stablecoin market cap is expected to double to $600 billion, fueled by their role as a settlement layer. Perkins also forecasts a major hack exceeding $2 billion that could trigger significant policy changes. He predicts a resurgence of regulated crypto derivatives in the U.S., but no passage of a comprehensive market-structure bill due to political gridlock. Bitcoin and Ethereum are expected to reach new all-time highs of $150,000 and over $5,000, respectively. Finally, he foresees an NFT revival focused on financial applications rather than digital art.

bitcoinist01/01 13:02

Crypto Predictions 2026: CoinFund President Shares His Forecast

bitcoinist01/01 13:02

From AAVE to HYPE: Bitwise bets on altcoins with 11 crypto ETF filings

Digital asset manager Bitwise has filed with the SEC for 11 new spot altcoin ETFs, targeting assets including AAVE, HYPE, UNI, and NEAR. The proposed ETFs will follow a 60/40 investment strategy, with the majority allocated to direct asset exposure and the remainder to derivatives. This move comes after the 2025 approval of several other altcoin ETFs, such as those for SOL, XRP, and DOGE. Despite significant institutional inflows exceeding $1 billion in some cases—like XRP and SOL ETFs—the prices of the underlying assets have remained subdued, showing a disconnect between ETF demand and market performance. Analysts suggest that while 2026 may be a pivotal year for crypto ETFs, the sector risks becoming overcrowded, potentially leading to a market shakeout.

ambcrypto12/31 19:04

From AAVE to HYPE: Bitwise bets on altcoins with 11 crypto ETF filings

ambcrypto12/31 19:04

Bitcoin’s 2025 recap – 3.3% more retail buys while whales stepped back

Bitcoin's 2025 holder dynamics revealed a notable shift: retail investors increased their holdings by 3.3% since July, while large wallets (holding 10–10,000 BTC) only grew by 0.36%. Retail buyers consistently purchased dips, whereas whales reduced exposure after price peaks. Despite Bitcoin flowing out of exchanges—indicating long-term holding—prices remained range-bound, suggesting a disconnect between supply and price. Stablecoin supply grew significantly in the second half of the year, indicating capital remained within crypto but on standby. Trading activity increasingly favored derivatives over spot markets, amplifying price volatility through leverage and forced liquidations, particularly during downside moves. The market demonstrated maturation, with patience and positioning outweighing narratives and headlines. While supply conditions tightened, price action remained subdued, reflecting a more stable but complex market structure heading into 2026.

ambcrypto12/31 09:05

Bitcoin’s 2025 recap – 3.3% more retail buys while whales stepped back

ambcrypto12/31 09:05

What Does $150 Billion in Annual Derivatives Liquidations Mean for the Market?

According to CoinGlass data, forced liquidations in the cryptocurrency derivatives market reached $150 billion in 2025. While seemingly alarming, this reflects a structural norm in a market where derivatives dominate price discovery. Liquidations act as a periodic cost of leverage, occurring against a backdrop of $85.7 trillion in annual derivatives trading volume. Record-high open interest, crowded long positions, and high leverage—particularly in altcoins—combined with a global risk-off sentiment triggered a major market reversal in October, resulting in over $19 billion in liquidations within days, mostly from long positions. The core issue lies in risk amplification mechanisms: while routine liquidations are absorbed by insurance funds, Automatic Deleveraging (ADL) mechanisms can exacerbate selling during extreme volatility, especially hurting neutral strategies and smaller assets. High exchange dominance (the top four control 62% of derivatives trading) intensified the contagion risk, as synchronized de-risking and similar liquidation logic led to concentrated sell-offs. Infrastructure strain on bridges and fiat channels further hampered arbitrage and liquidity. The $150 billion in yearly liquidations signifies not systemic chaos but the cost of risk transfer. While no default cascades occurred in 2025, the event highlighted structural vulnerabilities of exchange concentration, high leverage, and certain mechanisms—underscoring the need for more robust systems and rational trading practices to prevent future crises.

marsbit12/29 23:16

What Does $150 Billion in Annual Derivatives Liquidations Mean for the Market?

marsbit12/29 23:16

Looking Back at Prediction Markets by the End of 2025: Scale, Players, and the Watershed Moment

By the end of 2025, prediction markets have fundamentally shifted from being event-driven tools reliant on black swan events to platforms sustained by structural trading demand. The total monthly trading volume has grown from under $100 million in early 2024 to over $1 billion by late 2025, indicating a phase of explosive growth and consistent liquidity. The industry has evolved into five distinct segments: 1. **Compliant Markets**: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated, exchange-like) and Polymarket (globally liquid, later US-compliant) lead with institutional and high-frequency trading, especially in sports contracts. 2. **Crypto-Native Experiments**: Platforms like Opinion explore high-risk, crypto-policy, and speculative events, driving innovation but facing regulatory uncertainty. 3. **High-Frequency Trading Platforms**: Limitless shortens contract cycles, blurring lines between prediction markets and derivatives trading. 4. **Embedded Markets**: Myriad Markets integrates prediction features into wallets and super-apps, reducing user acquisition costs and making participation more casual. 5. **Native Information Markets**: Platforms like predict.fun and media integrations use incentives and community mechanisms to blend prediction with content and social interaction. Regulation in 2025 has not meant full liberalization but rather the establishment of boundaries—predictive contracts are recognized as financial instruments, yet state-level gambling laws remain a friction point. The core shift for users is understanding that these markets now price uncertainty and reflect consensus, not just binary outcomes. Looking ahead, prediction markets are becoming tools for understanding uncertainty rather than mere betting arenas, with projections suggesting significant future growth. 2025 marks the beginning of this structural transformation.

比推12/29 23:05

Looking Back at Prediction Markets by the End of 2025: Scale, Players, and the Watershed Moment

比推12/29 23:05

Bitcoin price discovery shifts to derivatives as spot demand fades

A large crypto trader significantly expanded leveraged short positions in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, totaling over $250 million, as U.S. spot market demand remains weak. This derivatives-led strategy reflects a tactical bearish stance rather than outright selling. The negative Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index indicates subdued institutional buying, leaving sell pressure unabsorbed. Despite the large shorts, Bitcoin's price decline has been controlled without panic selling or major liquidations. The market is currently characterized by derivatives-driven downside pressure, while spot activity remains passive. A sustained recovery would require renewed U.S. spot demand to challenge the bearish positioning.

ambcrypto12/29 16:18

Bitcoin price discovery shifts to derivatives as spot demand fades

ambcrypto12/29 16:18

Why Bitcoin traders stay cautious despite global liquidity boom

Despite a significant expansion in global liquidity, with major economies like the U.S., China, Japan, and the Eurozone reaching record M2 money supply levels, Bitcoin (BTC) has not followed the expected upward trajectory and remains nearly 30% below its all-time high. Traders are exhibiting caution, and capital has not flowed aggressively into speculative markets like cryptocurrencies due to persistent uncertainty and tight financial conditions. Analytical tools such as the Energy Value Oscillator indicate that BTC is at levels comparable to a decade ago, often associated with long-term cycle bottoms rather than market tops. The current cycle has not yet entered the overheated "red zone" typical of past bull market peaks, suggesting that the market is still in a buildup phase. Overall, while liquidity conditions are favorable, risk assets including Bitcoin have not fully responded. The pressure continues to build, but the broader market movement remains pending. Derivatives market activity further confirms this hesitancy among traders.

ambcrypto12/29 04:03

Why Bitcoin traders stay cautious despite global liquidity boom

ambcrypto12/29 04:03

Analysis of LIT (Lighter): Ethereum's First Verifiable Zero-Knowledge Rollup Perpetual Contract Exchange

Lighter is the first verifiable zk-Rollup perpetual contract exchange on Ethereum, combining centralized exchange-level performance (millisecond latency, 10k+ TPS) with on-chain transparency. It uses a custom ZK circuit for verifiable order book matching and清算, and operates on a zero-fee model for retail traders while charging institutions via API. The LIT token enables governance, fee discounts, and liquidity incentives. The protocol addresses the scalability-security-decentralization trade-off in decentralized derivatives by leveraging an application-specific zk-Rollup. Its core innovations include an Order Book Tree for efficient matching (Θ(log2N) complexity), a fully verifiable清算 engine, and an Exit Hatch mechanism for user fund safety reliant only on Ethereum. With $80M in total funding and a $1.5B valuation (led by Founders Fund and Ribbit Capital), Lighter competes with established players like Aster and Hyperliquid. The LIT distribution includes 41.4% for ecosystem incentives, with initial circulating supply at 10.8% at TGE (Q1 2026). Key risks include technical complexity, regulatory uncertainty, and competitive pressure. Lighter aims to expand to spot, options, and cross-chain markets by 2027.

深潮12/28 12:24

Analysis of LIT (Lighter): Ethereum's First Verifiable Zero-Knowledge Rollup Perpetual Contract Exchange