As the Yuan Breaks 7, Why Is the Dollar Stablecoin USDT Trading at a Deep Discount?
The Chinese yuan (CNH) broke through the key 7.0 per dollar level in late December 2025, reaching its strongest point since Q3 2024. Concurrently, the USDT stablecoin experienced a rare and significant discount in its over-the-counter (OTC) price in China, falling to around 6.83 yuan—a negative premium of approximately 2.48% against the official exchange rate.
This divergence is attributed to two main factors. First, a major external driver is the weakening US dollar. The dollar index fell 9% in 2025, its worst performance in eight years, driven by expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve under new leadership and a reassessment of the "US exceptionalism" trade. This provided room for non-US currencies like the yuan to appreciate.
Second, and more critically for USDT, was a significant regulatory crackdown in China. In early December 2025, Chinese regulators explicitly brought stablecoins like USDT under supervision to combat illegal cross-border capital flows and money laundering. This caused OTC traders to pause operations and many holders to panic-sell their USDT for yuan, creating a surge in supply and a collapse in demand that severely depressed its local price.
Analysts conclude that the era of a perpetually strong dollar providing one-way gains is over. Market participants are now advised to move away from betting on unilateral currency moves and instead adopt a risk-neutral stance in a new environment of heightened volatility.
比推12/30 14:25
