VC Retrospective 2025: Compute is King, Narrative is Dead
Venture Capital Review 2025: Compute is King, Narrative is Dead
The article reflects on the challenging yet transformative year of 2025 for crypto and AI investments. While on-chain financial tools and the machine economy saw significant growth, long-term crypto investors faced a difficult market structure plagued by a "negative prisoner's dilemma," premature token unlocks, and a major market failure in October that triggered industry-wide deleveraging.
Despite these setbacks, the value creation in crypto and AI over the past decade has been immense, far outpacing other regions and sectors. The "Magnificent 7" tech giants and crypto assets collectively added trillions in market cap.
The key lesson from 2025 is that value accrued to the narratives but to the owners of physical and financial bottlenecks: power, semiconductors, and scarce compute. Public market winners were companies like NVIDIA, TSMC, IREN, and Bloom Energy. In software, value flowed to embedded, "must-have" platforms (e.g., Alphabet, Meta) rather than optional tools. In private markets, foundational AI companies grew rapidly but faced fragility, while value-controlling companies (e.g., Applied Intuition, Anduril) were better positioned. Tokenized networks were the weakest performers, as usage failed to translate into token value capture.
The core takeaway is that the market rewarded ownership of choke points and punished projects lacking control over cash flow or compute. For 2026, the investment focus shifts downstream to: (1) machine transaction surfaces (payments, billing, compliance), (2) applied infrastructure with existing budgets, and (3) high-conviction, non-consensus opportunities. The allocation will temporarily favor equity over tokens until market structure issues are resolved.
The author concludes that a major shakeout is coming, but it also presents significant opportunity. The need to move beyond collective illusions and focus on real, budget-backed economic activity is paramount.
比推12/23 23:11
