# Сопутствующие статьи по теме BTC

Macro Analyst: Bitcoin (BTC) Will Fall Below $70,000 Due to Japan's Hawkish Policy

Macro analysts warn that Bitcoin (BTC) could drop below $70,000 if the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raises interest rates on Friday, December 19th. Historically, BoJ rate hikes have been a bearish signal for high-risk assets like Bitcoin. Analyst AndrewBTC highlighted that previous BoJ hikes in March 2024, July 2024, and January 2025 were followed by BTC price corrections of approximately 23%, 26%, and 31%, respectively. The core of this analysis is Japan's role in global liquidity. A rate hike typically strengthens the yen, increasing the cost of borrowing and investing in high-risk assets. This often forces traders to unwind "yen carry trades," reducing global market liquidity and putting downward pressure on Bitcoin as investors de-risk. Analyst EX stated that in this macro environment, Bitcoin would "break below $70,000." Technically, Bitcoin's daily chart shows a classic bear flag pattern forming after its sharp drop from the $105,000-$110,000 range in November. A confirmed break below the flag's lower trendline could trigger a new downwave with a measured target zone between $70,000 and $72,500, a level echoed by other analysts recently.

cointelegraph_中文12/15 07:44

If MSCI Removes MSTR, Will the Stock Price Actually Fall? Historical Backtesting Reveals a Surprising Answer

The article examines whether MSCI's potential removal of MicroStrategy (MSTR) from its index would actually cause a significant drop in its share price, based on historical backtesting. MSCI index changes can trigger forced selling by passive funds, reducing liquidity and investor confidence. However, historical data from the November 2025 MSCI rebalancing shows that most of the price decline for removed stocks occurred during the pre-announcement anticipation phase (average drop of 24.5%), not after the official announcement (average drop of only 0.7%) or on the effective date. Some stocks even rebounded after removal. MSTR has already fallen 51% from its October high, suggesting the market may have already priced in the risk of removal. Additionally, Nasdaq 100's recent decision to retain MSTR indicates strong fundamentals and liquidity. The core driver of MSTR’s price remains Bitcoin’s performance. If MSCI retains MSTR on January 15, it could be a positive surprise. The current setup may present an asymmetric risk-reward opportunity for MSTR.

marsbit12/15 03:04

2025 Airdrop Survival Rules: From Gold Rush to Holding These Two Aces

In 2025, the airdrop farming landscape shifted dramatically, moving from a "gold rush" to a challenging environment with significantly reduced returns. The absence of an "altcoin season" and Bitcoin's market dominance led to lower valuations for airdropped tokens, with many projects launching at lower fully diluted valuations (FDVs) and experiencing immediate sell-offs. This resulted in smaller airdrops, often not even covering gas fees, causing many farming studios to shut down or pivot to other ventures. Despite the downturn, new farming methods emerged. "InfoFi" or "talk-to-earn" platforms like Kaito, Cookie Snaps, and Galxe’s Starboard allowed users to earn tokens by creating quality content and analysis on social media, lowering entry barriers and offering faster returns compared to traditional on-chain interactions. Binance Alpha also became a key income source for many, though its rewards diminished over time due to increased competition and lower token values. The two most reliable strategies for sustaining profits were: 1) Participating in high-profile token launches (e.g., on BuidlPad, Kaito, or Legion), focusing on projects with strong community hype and oversubscribed sales, which often provided quick, substantial gains at TGE. 2) Stablecoin farming through platforms like Binance’s Web3 Wallet, which offered low-risk, high-yield opportunities (e.g., Plasma’s collaboration with Binance offered over 70% APY for USDT depositors). These methods provided steady returns with minimal capital erosion. The author concludes that while airdrop farming is no longer a path to instant wealth, it remains a viable way to accumulate assets steadily. Success depends on adaptability, research, and discipline—focusing on quality over quantity, leveraging stablecoin yields, and capitalizing on high-potential launches. The key is to survive market downturns and capitalize when conditions improve.

marsbit12/12 15:57

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Trend and Investor Sentiment Suggest a Bullish December

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of a potential bullish December, challenging a decade-old bearish seasonal pattern where November losses typically extend into year-end declines. Key factors supporting this shift include reduced leverage, with open interest dropping from $94 billion to $60 billion, and Bitcoin’s price reclaiming its monthly volume-weighted average price (rVWAP), indicating controlled distribution. Liquidity dynamics have also shifted, with deep liquidity clusters moving upward, and around $3 billion in short positions set to liquidate near $96,000. Market structure diverges from historical cycles due to spot ETF inflows, introducing constant structural demand and accelerating price discovery. Analysts note that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, while not obsolete, is no longer time-aligned, resembling extended accumulation phases like mid-2016 or late-2019. Macro liquidity (M2) growth has plateaued, creating a late-cycle environment where risk assets rally despite underlying economic softening. Supporting indicators, such as CNY/USD and ETH/BTC correlations, along with improving PMI data and gold’s relative strength, suggest continued risk-on momentum rather than cycle fatigue. While buy-sell ratios show urgency, analysts caution this may reflect positioning squeeze rather than sustainable accumulation. Overall, December’s performance may depend more on structural forces—ETF flows, liquidity rotation, and shifting macro correlations—than traditional halving-driven周期 patterns.

cointelegraph_中文12/12 12:20

Market Divergence: SOL Becomes Institutional Darling, Terra Ecosystem Completely Collapses, ZEC Shorts Forced to 'Hold the Bag' by Whales?

The cryptocurrency market is currently experiencing significant divergence, with some assets surging while others face severe downturns. Bitcoin (BTC) is testing a critical resistance zone between $92,000 and $94,000. A successful breakout could propel it toward $100,000, while failure may lead to a pullback below $90,000. Similarly, Ethereum (ETH) is approaching its key level at $3,400. Holding above this could push it to $3,700-$3,800, otherwise a retest of $3,000 support is likely. Solana (SOL) has emerged as a major institutional favorite. Despite market volatility, SOL ETFs continue seeing consistent inflows. Support from major platforms like Coinbase, which integrated Solana DEX functionality, and growing adoption by traditional finance giants like JPMorgan and Nasdaq, highlight strong fundamental strength. Accumulating SOL gradually is recommended. In contrast, the Terra ecosystem (LUNA, LUNC, USTC) has effectively collapsed. Founder Do Kwon received a 15-year prison sentence, and the project's $40 billion collapse triggered a broader market crisis. These assets are considered uninvestable. Zcash (ZEC) presents a cautionary tale for short sellers. Many are trapped in losing positions as large holders (whales) maintain price range, collecting funding rates systematically. This strategy allows whales to profit from perpetual funding while gradually squeezing shorts. The lesson: take profits quickly when shorting ZEC and avoid greed. Overall strategy: Wait for BTC/ETH to break key levels before acting, accumulate SOL steadily, avoid Terra assets entirely, and short ZEC with extreme caution.

金色财经12/12 11:30

12.12 Today's Market: Why the Rise? BTC\SOL\ETH\BNB\ZEC\PIEVERSE\Bee Dog\Hakimi Operation Analysis

金色财经12/12 07:10

Despite Fed Policy Shift, Bitcoin (BTC) Rally Stalls at $94,000

Despite the Federal Reserve's policy pivot, Bitcoin's (BTC) rally continues to face resistance around the $94,000 mark. Even as traders grow optimistic about U.S. monetary policy and long-term crypto market prospects, BTC has struggled to break through this key level after multiple attempts. Key factors include significant liquidity contraction, particularly in stablecoin flows, which have dropped nearly 50% from August’s $158 billion to around $76 billion this month. This reduction in buying power has limited upward momentum. Analysts note that recent price rebounds were driven more by short-selling pressure easing rather than strong capital inflows. The $94,000 to $98,000 range remains a critical liquidity zone. However, failure to break above $94,000 could expose BTC to increased volatility and a potential drop toward $88,000. A break below this support might trigger further declines toward $84,000 or even the quarterly low near $80,600. While some traders view the current consolidation as a healthy shakeout of weak positions, Bitcoin must achieve a weekly close above $90,000 (ideally near $93,000) to rebuild structural support for a potential push toward $96,000.

cointelegraph_中文12/12 05:41

Prediction Markets Bet Bitcoin (BTC) Unlikely to Break $100,000 Before Year-End

According to prediction markets, Bitcoin (BTC) is unlikely to surpass the $100,000 mark before the end of the year. Data from platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi shows the probability of BTC reaching this milestone by January 1st is only around 30-34%. This bearish sentiment follows a significant weakening of bullish momentum since Bitcoin's price crash on October 10th. Several factors are suppressing short-term price recovery, including growing macroeconomic uncertainty and a notable slowdown in Bitcoin purchases by large corporate buyers, such as MicroStrategy. Data from Capriole Investments indicates that the daily rate of corporate BTC acquisitions has been consistently declining, suggesting institutional investors may be experiencing fatigue. Technically, BTC is currently facing resistance around the $ $94,000 level. Analysts note that the price is consolidating within an ascending triangle pattern. A breakout above $ $94,589 could potentially push the price toward the $ $98,000 to $ $100,000 liquidity zone, though this is seen as a challenging hurdle in the short term.

cointelegraph_中文12/12 03:18

Ether vs. Bitcoin (BTC): ETH Price Could Achieve 80% Gain by 2026

An analysis of the ETH/BTC two-week chart suggests the potential for a significant price increase in Ethereum relative to Bitcoin by 2026. The chart pattern shows a developing inverse head and shoulders (IH&S) formation, a classic bullish reversal indicator that often appears after a prolonged downtrend. The pattern's left shoulder formed during a weak period in late 2024, followed by a sharp selloff in April 2025 that created the head near 0.0176 BTC. A recovery in Q4 2025 established a higher low, forming the right shoulder. The neckline resides near 0.0400 BTC. A decisive break above this resistance could confirm the pattern and pave the way for a move toward a target of 0.063 BTC in 2026, representing an 80% gain from recent levels. This potential rally is compared to a similar structural bottom and subsequent 450% breakout that occurred in the ETH/BTC pair between 2019 and 2020. However, analysts caution that Ethereum remains constrained by a multi-year descending trendline that has rejected every breakout attempt against Bitcoin since 2017. A failure to overcome this major obstacle could invalidate the bullish setup and increase the risk of a pullback toward long-term support near 0.0175 BTC.

cointelegraph_中文12/12 03:07