# Сопутствующие статьи по теме BTC

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "BTC", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

86% Return? How to Use a Bot to 'Earn Passively' on Polymarket

This article details the development and backtesting of an automated trading bot for the "BTC 15-minute UP/DOWN" market on Polymarket. The author identified market inefficiencies and automated a manual strategy to exploit them. The bot operates in two modes. In manual mode, users can directly place orders. In auto mode, it runs a two-leg cycle: First, it observes the market for a set time after a round begins. If either the "UP" or "DOWN" side drops by a specified percentage (e.g., 15%) within seconds, it triggers "Leg 1" and buys the crashed side. It then waits for "Leg 2," a hedging trade on the opposite side, which is only executed if the sum of the Leg 1 entry price and the opposite ask price meets a target threshold (e.g., ≤ 0.95). Due to a lack of historical market data from Polymarket's API, the author created a custom backtesting system by recording 6 GB of live price snapshots over four days. A conservative backtest with parameters of a 15% crash threshold and a 0.95 sum target showed an 86% ROI, turning $1,000 into $1,869. An aggressive parameter set resulted in a -50% loss, highlighting the critical role of parameter selection. The author acknowledges significant limitations of the backtesting, including its short data period, failure to model order book depth, partial fills, variable network latency, and the market impact of the bot's own orders. Future improvements include rewriting the bot in Rust for performance, running a dedicated node, and deploying on a low-latency VPS.

marsbit12/30 04:07

86% Return? How to Use a Bot to 'Earn Passively' on Polymarket

marsbit12/30 04:07

Deciphering Messari's 100,000-Word Annual Report (Part 2): ETH Underperforms BTC—Marginalization or Pricing Dilemma?

Analysis of Messari's 2025 Annual Report: Why ETH Underperformed BTC ETH's underperformance against BTC in 2025 is not a sign of its marginalization but rather a reflection of its complex and evolving pricing logic. While BTC thrives on a singular narrative as a macro hedge and institutional asset, ETH serves multiple roles: a decentralized settlement layer, DeFi infrastructure, and a production network with ongoing upgrades. Key data shows Ethereum's usage grew significantly in stablecoins, RWA, and institutional settlements, often occurring on L2s rather than L1. This shift reduced direct fee revenue for ETH, weakening its value capture despite increased network utility. Competition from chains like Solana and Hyperliquid further pressured L1 fee income, but Ethereum remained the dominant settlement layer for high-value, institutional-grade activity. ETH's asset narrative remains tied to BTC's macro momentum. While ETH ETF flows eventually improved, its monetary premium is still derivative of BTC's consensus. The core issue is structural: Ethereum is becoming essential global financial infrastructure, but ETH's value relies more on abstract security premiums and macro risk sentiment than direct cash flows. In conclusion, ETH is not being replaced. It operates as the financial operating system built atop BTC's monetary anchor—critically important, yet not yet independently priced.

marsbit12/29 07:02

Deciphering Messari's 100,000-Word Annual Report (Part 2): ETH Underperforms BTC—Marginalization or Pricing Dilemma?

marsbit12/29 07:02

Reading Trends from Data: The Logic Behind the Crypto Market Rebound and Potential Risks

Analysis of the crypto market rebound and underlying risks, based on data for the week of Dec 20-26. Bitcoin found technical support at the $85,000 level, bouncing from a low of $84,500. While a technical rebound is underway, key data suggests the market is not yet on a solid footing for a sustained trend reversal. Key short-term data points show mixed picture: * **Stablecoins:** Net issuance remained negative at -$326M, but the outflow rate slowed by 60% week-over-week. * **BTC ETFs:** Net outflows worsened significantly to -$664.37M, a crucial headwind. A return to net inflows is deemed essential for a true reversal. * **OTC Premiums:** USDT and USDC premiums fell to 97.86% and 98.36% respectively, indicating weak demand and persistent capital outflows. * **ETH ETFs:** Outflows narrowed considerably to -$139.53M from the previous week, providing some relative stability for Ethereum. Mid-term on-chain data revealed minor accumulation by addresses holding 100-1K BTC, while larger wallets (10K-100K BTC) reduced holdings. Strong筹码 accumulation was noted near the $87,100 price point, suggesting it could become a key support level. The altcoin market (TOTAL3) saw a modest 1.95% gain but overall sentiment remained weak. Key observations include: * Low trading activity and a subdued market sentiment index. * BTC dominance held high at 65.76%, indicating altcoins continue to underperform Bitcoin. * Meme coins and high-profile tokens saw sporadic gains, but lacked sustained, broad-based momentum. * TVL across major chains saw minor increases, with Base chain standing out with a 4.76% TVL growth. In conclusion, while technical indicators suggest a potential for rebound from oversold conditions, persistent ETF outflows, weak stablecoin demand, and low altcoin momentum highlight significant underlying risks. The market requires a fundamental shift in capital flows, particularly into ETFs, to confirm a durable upward trend.

marsbit12/29 04:13

Reading Trends from Data: The Logic Behind the Crypto Market Rebound and Potential Risks

marsbit12/29 04:13

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