# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Bonds

Новостной центр HTX предлагает последние статьи и углубленный анализ по "Bonds", охватывающие рыночные тренды, новости проектов, развитие технологий и политику регулирования в криптоиндустрии.

The Most Crowded Short in History Is Paving the Way for a Bull Market in U.S. Bonds

An experienced macro trader presents a contrarian thesis that 2026 will be the "year of the bond," with long-duration U.S. Treasuries (TLT/TMF) poised to outperform stocks. The core argument is built on several pillars: gold's 200% rally historically signals deflationary risk, not sustained inflation; the U.S. faces a crushing $1.2 trillion annual interest bill, creating a fiscal doom loop; Treasury issuance is dangerously short-term, amplifying refinancing risk; and long bond short interest is at extreme, crowded levels. Additional factors include cooling inflation, weak economic indicators, deflationary trade war risks, and the high probability of Fed intervention (QE/Yield Curve Control) to lower long-term yields if stress emerges. The trade offers asymmetric upside: TLT yields ~4.5% while waiting, and a 200bps drop in yields could trigger a 35-45%+ price surge, accelerated by a short squeeze. The author has allocated 60% of their portfolio to this thesis, betting on a policy and macro regime shift.

marsbit01/20 06:46

The Most Crowded Short in History Is Paving the Way for a Bull Market in U.S. Bonds

marsbit01/20 06:46

"Uninvestable" U.S. Treasuries Might Be the Highest-Returning Asset of 2026

Amidst a shifting macroeconomic landscape in 2026, long-term U.S. Treasuries, particularly ETFs like TLT and TMF, are positioned to outperform equities. Key arguments include: gold's 200% rise signaling deflationary risks rather than sustained inflation; unsustainable U.S. interest expenses nearing $1.2 trillion annually; heavy short-term Treasury issuance increasing refinancing risks; and extreme short interest in long bonds creating potential for a squeeze. Additionally, cooling inflation, weak consumer sentiment, and rising trade tensions suggest a deflationary shock. Policy interventions, such as yield curve control or QE, are likely if long yields threaten growth or fiscal stability. With long-duration assets offering convexity and a 4.4–4.7% yield, a 100–200 bps decline in long-term rates could drive 15–45%+ returns, making long bonds a high-upside, asymmetric bet for 2026.

marsbit01/20 02:20

"Uninvestable" U.S. Treasuries Might Be the Highest-Returning Asset of 2026

marsbit01/20 02:20

Crypto Morning Brief: 10-Year Japanese Government Bond Yield Rises 3 Basis Points, PancakeSwap Passes 'Reduce Maximum Supply' Proposal

Trump links Nobel Peace Prize rejection to Greenland sovereignty claim in letter to Norwegian PM. Japan's 10-year government bond yield rises 3 basis points to 2.3%, highest since 1999. PancakeSwap passes proposal to reduce CAKE's max supply to 400 million tokens. Magic Eden allocates 15% of platform revenue to ME token ecosystem, split between buybacks and staking rewards. Trove faces investor backlash after abandoning Hyperliquid to build on Solana, with funds allegedly diverted to a casino. China's Supreme Procuratorate emphasizes crackdown on virtual currency money laundering crimes. Bitmine stakes an additional 86,848 ETH ($279.4M), bringing total staked to 1.77M ETH ($5.65B). New York Stock Exchange plans to enable 24/7 trading for US stocks.

marsbit01/20 01:28

Crypto Morning Brief: 10-Year Japanese Government Bond Yield Rises 3 Basis Points, PancakeSwap Passes 'Reduce Maximum Supply' Proposal

marsbit01/20 01:28

Chainlink Ignites Swift’s Multi-Bank Tokenization Breakthrough

Swift has completed a landmark trial with BNP Paribas, Intesa Sanpaolo, and Société Générale’s SG-FORGE, advancing interoperability in tokenized assets. The experiment successfully demonstrated seamless cross-platform settlement of tokenized bonds using both fiat and digital currencies, including SG-FORGE’s EURCV stablecoin. Key processes like delivery-versus-payment, interest payouts, and redemptions were executed using existing banking roles and infrastructure. This initiative, which builds on earlier work with Chainlink and UBS Asset Management, highlights Swift’s role as a neutral coordinator bridging traditional finance and blockchain. The project also integrated ISO 20022 messaging with blockchain platforms, promoting standardization and reducing institutional onboarding complexity.

bitcoinist01/16 18:52

Chainlink Ignites Swift’s Multi-Bank Tokenization Breakthrough

bitcoinist01/16 18:52

Cooling US Inflation Fails to Alter Rate Cut Expectations, JPMorgan Leads Financial Stocks Lower, Yen Falls to 159, Bitcoin Hits New Yearly High

U.S. inflation data did not alter market expectations for the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts. The core CPI for December remained at 2.6%, matching a four-year low, yet markets continued to price in the first rate cut for June. Major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the financial sector underperforming as JPMorgan fell over 4% due to weaker investment banking revenue. Treasury yields were largely flat, with the 10-year near 4.17%, while bond market volatility declined. The dollar strengthened, pushing USD/JPY above 159 amid concerns over Japan's potential debt crisis. Despite dollar strength, gold hit a record high above $4,600 before retreating slightly, and the gold-silver ratio fell to a multi-year low of 52. Analysts noted that precious metals are acting as hedges against macroeconomic uncertainty rather than reacting solely to inflation and rate expectations. Oil prices rose for a fourth consecutive session, with WTI crude surpassing $61 per barrel following geopolitical tensions. Bitcoin also climbed, nearing its yearly high. European equities were mixed, with the Euro Stoxx 50 hitting a record high for the third straight session, while the broader Stoxx 600 dipped slightly.

华尔街日报01/13 22:31

Cooling US Inflation Fails to Alter Rate Cut Expectations, JPMorgan Leads Financial Stocks Lower, Yen Falls to 159, Bitcoin Hits New Yearly High

华尔街日报01/13 22:31

0xTodd's Investment Philosophy: Bitcoin + U.S. Bonds, a Portfolio That Lets You 'Sleep Soundly' Long-Term

English Summary: 0xTodd, partner at Nothing Research and co-founder of Ethereum staking pool EBunker, shares his investment philosophy and crypto journey in this interview. He entered crypto in 2017 after recognizing Bitcoin's real-world utility during the "WannaCry" ransomware event. His research methodology, shaped by his background in materials chemistry, emphasizes verifiable conclusions and welcomes external critique. He famously correctly predicted the collapse of Luna/UST in 2022, profiting from this structural insight. Todd's core investment thesis is a "sleep-well-at-night" portfolio: Bitcoin + US Treasury bonds. The logic is a complete hedge: if central banks keep printing money, Bitcoin benefits; if they stop, high-yield bonds provide stable returns. He identifies stablecoins as crypto's second "killer app," particularly those backed by real-world assets like US debt (e.g., BMRUSD), for their utility in global payments and settlements. On AI, he sees crypto as a natural solution for AI economy transactions, providing the necessary programmable, permissionless settlement layer. His advice for newcomers is to learn core technology (Bitcoin, Ethereum, DeFi) before trading. Key 2026 trends he identifies are: Crypto finding its role alongside AI (productivity vs.生产关系), stablecoin adoption expanding, and合规ization bringing institutional capital. Ultimately, Todd believes long-term success in crypto comes from slow, structural thinking and understanding the underlying mechanisms, not chasing narratives.

marsbit01/13 14:06

0xTodd's Investment Philosophy: Bitcoin + U.S. Bonds, a Portfolio That Lets You 'Sleep Soundly' Long-Term

marsbit01/13 14:06

Bitcoin and Yen’s record high correlation — What does it mean for BTC’s price?

Bitcoin has started 2026 trading above $90,000, though it has retraced from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000. A key development is its record-high correlation of 89% with the Japanese Yen Index (JPYX), surpassing previous levels. This strong link means movements in the yen, influenced by Japan’s bond market and economic policies, may significantly impact Bitcoin’s price. An upcoming auction of Japanese Government Bonds and rising yields are critical factors to watch, as they could affect the yen's strength and, consequently, Bitcoin’s near-term direction. Conflicting economic signals, such as declining real wages, add further uncertainty to the outlook.

ambcrypto01/08 15:02

Bitcoin and Yen’s record high correlation — What does it mean for BTC’s price?

ambcrypto01/08 15:02

Global debt markets show dollar dominance moves in cycles, US Fed says

A new Federal Reserve discussion paper reveals that the U.S. dollar’s dominance in global debt markets has moved in cycles over the past 60 years, with no clear long-term trend toward either dollarization or de-dollarization. The study identifies three distinct "dollarization waves" since the 1960s, showing currency usage shifts are cyclical rather than structural. As of 2024, emerging markets still rely heavily on dollar-denominated debt, which makes up about 80% of their international bonds. Meanwhile, the rise of dollar-pegged stablecoins like USDT and USDC—which together represent 85% of the $309.6 billion stablecoin market—has reinforced dollar dominance. These stablecoins are backed significantly by U.S. Treasury holdings, making their issuers major holders of U.S. government debt. The report concludes that despite vulnerabilities, the dollar’s global role remains unchallenged due to a lack of alternatives. Efforts to internationalize other currencies, including the Chinese renminbi, have seen limited success. European policymakers have expressed concern over the growing influence of dollar-backed stablecoins.

cointelegraph12/18 21:38

Global debt markets show dollar dominance moves in cycles, US Fed says

cointelegraph12/18 21:38

Fed Cuts Rates and Buys Short-Term Bonds: US Stocks, Short-Term Treasuries, Gold Rise; Dollar Falls; Bitcoin Fluctuates

On December 10, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points and announced a plan to purchase $40 billion in Treasury bonds over the next 30 days. Before the announcement, U.S. stocks were mixed, the dollar and gold declined, and Treasury yields edged lower. After the release, equities and gold initially fluctuated before rising, short-term Treasury yields fell briefly, while longer-term yields eventually climbed. During the press conference, Chair Powell indicated that Treasury purchases would remain elevated in coming months but downplayed expectations for another imminent rate cut. His comments drove stocks higher, with major indices extending gains. Bond yields trended downward overall, and the dollar weakened further. Gold recovered early losses to hit a daily high, while Bitcoin experienced volatility before climbing toward the end of the event. By the end of the press conference, the S&P 500 and Dow were up 0.7% and 1.1% respectively, short-term yields hit session lows, the dollar index fell over 0.6%, and gold advanced 0.6% to approach $4,239. Bitcoin also rose, nearing $94,500.

华尔街日报12/10 21:29

Fed Cuts Rates and Buys Short-Term Bonds: US Stocks, Short-Term Treasuries, Gold Rise; Dollar Falls; Bitcoin Fluctuates

华尔街日报12/10 21:29

JPMorgan's 2026 Global Investment Outlook: Economic 'K-Shaped Divergence' Continues; AI Adoption Soars

JPMorgan's 2026 Global Investment Outlook highlights a continued "K-shaped" economic divergence in the U.S., where high-income groups and technology sectors benefit significantly, while middle- and lower-income populations and interest-rate-sensitive industries face ongoing pressure. The U.S. economy is expected to remain resilient, supporting risk assets like equities and corporate credit, though cyclical momentum is limited. The Federal Reserve will continue normalizing interest rates cautiously amid potential volatility. Key investment themes include balancing portfolios across stocks, bonds, and alternative assets to capture structural opportunities and diversify returns. Three critical questions for investors are whether stocks are overvalued, if profits can remain strong, and whether AI-related stocks are in a bubble. Growth stocks, particularly in technology, remain attractive due to strong earnings, while consumer stocks lag due to tax and spending pressures. AI beneficiaries extend beyond innovators to enablers (industrials, utilities) and adopters (finance, healthcare). Fixed income investments should focus on high-quality assets, with longer-duration bonds offering potential upside if rates decline. Despite a recent increase in international equity allocations, U.S. equities remain overweighted. The "60/40" stock/bond model is evolving into "60/40+" by incorporating alternatives for lower correlation and reduced volatility. Structural improvements in international markets and a weaker dollar support non-U.S. equities. Investors are advised to emphasize selectivity, diversification, and active management in a complex macro environment.

cointelegraph_中文12/09 21:54

JPMorgan's 2026 Global Investment Outlook: Economic 'K-Shaped Divergence' Continues; AI Adoption Soars

cointelegraph_中文12/09 21:54

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