# Сопутствующие статьи по теме Analysis

Bitcoin Rally May Have Ended, Beware of Adjustment Risks | Invited Analysis

BTC Rebound Likely Over, Correction Risk Ahead | Weekly Analysis by Conaldo The three-week Bitcoin rebound shows signs of exhaustion, with weakening bullish momentum. The market faces key resistance levels, suggesting a potential short-term pullback to test lower supports, possibly initiating a second wave of decline. Last week, three short positions were executed following a "sell the rally" strategy within the defined 94,200–83,500 USD range, yielding a total return of 6.15%. Key technical models (Momentum Quant + Spread Trading) identified precise entry and exit points near resistance. Weekly and daily technical analysis indicates the market has turned bearish on higher timeframes. The momentum model shows signals of a bearish crossover forming on the daily chart, confirming the rebound is losing strength. This week’s outlook is bearish-biased. If support at 87,500–89,000 USD fails, a move toward 80,000–83,500 is anticipated. Resistance is expected at 92,500–94,500 USD. Two short-term trading plans are proposed based on whether support holds or breaks. Key macro events this week include Fed speeches and U.S. November CPI data. A lower CPI may support risk assets, while higher inflation could strengthen the dollar and pressure BTC. Risk management is emphasized: set stop-losses immediately at entry, move to breakeven at +1% profit, and trail stops to lock in gains thereafter. Disclaimer: Views are based on technical analysis and personal strategy, not investment advice. Trade with caution. DYOR.

Odaily星球日报12/15 05:33

Spot volumes drop 66% in ‘lulls’ that often precede next cycle leg: Bitfinex

Bitfinex reports a 66% decline in crypto spot trading volumes this quarter, dropping from over $500 billion in early November to around $250 billion. The exchange notes this mirrors historical market lulls that often precede the next cycle upswing. Analysts observe Bitcoin's tightening price structure near key levels of $89,000–$92,000, suggesting a breakout toward $100,000 is possible if resistance is broken. Despite a recent Fed rate cut and a large institutional purchase, momentum faded as the move was already priced in, leaving markets subdued amid softer ETF inflows and macroeconomic uncertainty.

cointelegraph12/13 11:09

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Trend and Investor Sentiment Suggest a Bullish December

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of a potential bullish December, challenging a decade-old bearish seasonal pattern where November losses typically extend into year-end declines. Key factors supporting this shift include reduced leverage, with open interest dropping from $94 billion to $60 billion, and Bitcoin’s price reclaiming its monthly volume-weighted average price (rVWAP), indicating controlled distribution. Liquidity dynamics have also shifted, with deep liquidity clusters moving upward, and around $3 billion in short positions set to liquidate near $96,000. Market structure diverges from historical cycles due to spot ETF inflows, introducing constant structural demand and accelerating price discovery. Analysts note that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, while not obsolete, is no longer time-aligned, resembling extended accumulation phases like mid-2016 or late-2019. Macro liquidity (M2) growth has plateaued, creating a late-cycle environment where risk assets rally despite underlying economic softening. Supporting indicators, such as CNY/USD and ETH/BTC correlations, along with improving PMI data and gold’s relative strength, suggest continued risk-on momentum rather than cycle fatigue. While buy-sell ratios show urgency, analysts caution this may reflect positioning squeeze rather than sustainable accumulation. Overall, December’s performance may depend more on structural forces—ETF flows, liquidity rotation, and shifting macro correlations—than traditional halving-driven周期 patterns.

cointelegraph_中文12/12 12:20

Trading Moment: Bitcoin at $92K in Bull-Bear Battle, Oracle and Moore Thread Drag Down AI Sector

Daily Market Analysis by PANews: Bitcoin hovers around $92K amid intense long-short battles, while AI stocks face pressure from Oracle and Moore Threads. Key drivers include the Fed's 25bps rate cut and plans for $40B monthly Treasury purchases, boosting gold to near $4290 and silver to a record $64. However, rising US jobless claims and China's economic policy shift toward domestic demand and tech innovation signal caution. Oracle's stock plunged 16% due to weak cloud revenue growth and elevated capex guidance, dragging down AI sector momentum. Despite strong earnings, Broadcom fell 1.94%, and Google dropped 2.43% after OpenAI's Disney deal. Domestically, Moore Threads crashed 15% after a 723% rally, warning of unproven product impact. BTC trades between $92K-$94K with reduced selling pressure; analysts target $99K-$112K if bullish momentum holds, but shorts target $87.7K. ETH faces resistance at $3.6K-$3.8K if BTC breaks $94K, with key support at $3.15K. Other highlights: Do Kwon sentenced to 15 years, triggering 30% drops in Terra tokens; fear index at 29; BTC dominance 58.46%. Upcoming events include Bittensor halving and SEC crypto roundtable.

marsbit12/12 07:42

12.12 Today's Market: Why the Rise? BTC\SOL\ETH\BNB\ZEC\PIEVERSE\Bee Dog\Hakimi Operation Analysis

金色财经12/12 07:10

BTC/ETF ETF "Bleeding" VS XRP "Sucking In" Nearly 900 Million: Market Rotation or Shift in Sentiment? | MyToken AMA Recap

Recent cryptocurrency ETF markets have shown significant divergence, with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs experiencing substantial net outflows, while altcoin ETFs—particularly XRP—have attracted nearly $900 million in institutional inflows. Analysts from a MyToken AMA discussion suggest this shift reflects short-term market rotation and year-end profit-taking rather than a fundamental change in institutional strategy. Experts emphasize that while Bitcoin and Ethereum remain core holdings due to their macro sensitivity and liquidity, funds are temporarily shifting to narrative-driven assets like XRP, which benefits from regulatory progress and niche use cases. Retail investors are advised to maintain a majority allocation in major cryptocurrencies, use data tools to track flows, and avoid impulsive trading. Promising sectors include payment solutions, real-world assets (RWA), and AI-related crypto applications. The muted price reaction to XRP ETF inflows may stem from reduced narrative sensitivity, institutional position reshuffling, and existing sell pressure. Overall, the market is transitioning from broad bull trends to structured, rotation-driven opportunities.

金色财经12/12 06:53

Ethereum (ETH) May See Triple-Digit Gains, ETF Inflows Become a Catalyst

Ethereum (ETH) is showing signs of potential for a significant upward move, with the recent recovery in spot Ethereum ETF inflows acting as a key catalyst. After a pullback from the $3,650–$3,350 supply zone, ETH is now consolidating near $3,200. This coincides with a technical resistance level formed by the 200-day moving average, creating a conflict between technical pressure and improving fund flows. Key data highlights include a 28% increase in spot Ethereum ETF assets since November 21, growing from $16.8 billion to $21.5 billion. Net automated trading volume, while still negative at -$1.38 billion, has improved significantly from the extreme -$5 billion levels seen in October, indicating a structural shift in market sentiment. This metric’s 30-day moving average is also rising, a pattern last observed in early 2025 before ETH’s historic rally. On the price chart, ETH is testing a critical demand zone between $3,100 and $3,180 on the 4-hour chart. Holding this area could lead to a rebound toward the 200-day EMA and a potential challenge of the $3,450 resistance. A break above $3,450 could open a path toward $3,900. However, a breakdown of the channel support might trigger a retest of the $3,000 level. Derivatives data from Hyblock shows a neutral but fragile market structure. While funding rates are positive and mild, the buy/sell order ratio remains balanced, suggesting that spot traders have not yet formed a strong bullish bias. The key for ETH’s next major move depends on whether buyers can sustain the current demand zone and whether improving spot ETF inflows and automated trading activity can convert into sustained upward pressure.

cointelegraph_中文12/12 06:18

Despite Fed Policy Shift, Bitcoin (BTC) Rally Stalls at $94,000

Despite the Federal Reserve's policy pivot, Bitcoin's (BTC) rally continues to face resistance around the $94,000 mark. Even as traders grow optimistic about U.S. monetary policy and long-term crypto market prospects, BTC has struggled to break through this key level after multiple attempts. Key factors include significant liquidity contraction, particularly in stablecoin flows, which have dropped nearly 50% from August’s $158 billion to around $76 billion this month. This reduction in buying power has limited upward momentum. Analysts note that recent price rebounds were driven more by short-selling pressure easing rather than strong capital inflows. The $94,000 to $98,000 range remains a critical liquidity zone. However, failure to break above $94,000 could expose BTC to increased volatility and a potential drop toward $88,000. A break below this support might trigger further declines toward $84,000 or even the quarterly low near $80,600. While some traders view the current consolidation as a healthy shakeout of weak positions, Bitcoin must achieve a weekly close above $90,000 (ideally near $93,000) to rebuild structural support for a potential push toward $96,000.

cointelegraph_中文12/12 05:41

Prediction Markets Bet Bitcoin (BTC) Unlikely to Break $100,000 Before Year-End

According to prediction markets, Bitcoin (BTC) is unlikely to surpass the $100,000 mark before the end of the year. Data from platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi shows the probability of BTC reaching this milestone by January 1st is only around 30-34%. This bearish sentiment follows a significant weakening of bullish momentum since Bitcoin's price crash on October 10th. Several factors are suppressing short-term price recovery, including growing macroeconomic uncertainty and a notable slowdown in Bitcoin purchases by large corporate buyers, such as MicroStrategy. Data from Capriole Investments indicates that the daily rate of corporate BTC acquisitions has been consistently declining, suggesting institutional investors may be experiencing fatigue. Technically, BTC is currently facing resistance around the $ $94,000 level. Analysts note that the price is consolidating within an ascending triangle pattern. A breakout above $ $94,589 could potentially push the price toward the $ $98,000 to $ $100,000 liquidity zone, though this is seen as a challenging hurdle in the short term.

cointelegraph_中文12/12 03:18

Ether vs. Bitcoin (BTC): ETH Price Could Achieve 80% Gain by 2026

An analysis of the ETH/BTC two-week chart suggests the potential for a significant price increase in Ethereum relative to Bitcoin by 2026. The chart pattern shows a developing inverse head and shoulders (IH&S) formation, a classic bullish reversal indicator that often appears after a prolonged downtrend. The pattern's left shoulder formed during a weak period in late 2024, followed by a sharp selloff in April 2025 that created the head near 0.0176 BTC. A recovery in Q4 2025 established a higher low, forming the right shoulder. The neckline resides near 0.0400 BTC. A decisive break above this resistance could confirm the pattern and pave the way for a move toward a target of 0.063 BTC in 2026, representing an 80% gain from recent levels. This potential rally is compared to a similar structural bottom and subsequent 450% breakout that occurred in the ETH/BTC pair between 2019 and 2020. However, analysts caution that Ethereum remains constrained by a multi-year descending trendline that has rejected every breakout attempt against Bitcoin since 2017. A failure to overcome this major obstacle could invalidate the bullish setup and increase the risk of a pullback toward long-term support near 0.0175 BTC.

cointelegraph_中文12/12 03:07