Bitcoin’s price momentum remains mixed after the recent dovish Fed rate cut and ahead of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decision scheduled for 19th of December.
While the stock market rallied following the dovish Fed rate cut earlier this week, Bitcoin dumped in the typical ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ style.
Analysts’ Bitcoin outlook
At press time, the king coin was trading at $90.2k and had remained below $100k for the fourth consecutive week.
Despite lagging behind U.S. equity markets, Coinbase analysts projected that the Fed’s ‘stealth QE (quantitative easing)’ could juice crypto markets throughout into Q1, 2026.
“We think the Fed’s transition from balance sheet runoff to net injection is seen as ‘light quantitative easing’ or ‘stealth QE,’ which may support crypto markets.”
The analysts cited the recent liquidity injection of $40 billion and a ‘less hawkish environment than expected’ in 2026.
For Swissblock analysts, the bullish momentum could be confirmed if Bitcoin [BTC] reclaims $93,500, based on the analytics’ proprietary models.
Even so, BTC and the entire crypto market still face two overhangs — the BoJ rate decision and the MSCI index review for crypto treasury firms in mid-January.
Will Japan drag BTC again?
For Japan’s decision, the 25-Delta Risk Reversal (25RR) was negative for immediate Option expiries on the 19th (-3.7) and 26th (6.4) December.
This underscored high hedging activity or higher demand for puts (bearish bets) into year-end.
In other words, top players were somewhat expressing bearish sentiment based on the Options market data.
Since the 19th of December will be the date for the BoJ decision, this suggests caution around this macro update.
And the jitters are understandable because Japan is the largest holder of U.S. government debt and could trigger another Yen carry trade unwind, similar to last August.
Notably, the previous BoJ rate hikes were followed by a decline in the BTC price of 20%-30%. If history repeats, the price could drop to $70k, one analyst warned.
Perhaps, if BTC clears the BoJ decision and mid-January MSCI exclusion review of Strategy and other treasury firms, a decisive rebound could be likely.
In the meantime, the market could remain choppy until these risk events are resolved.
Otherwise, a full bear-market capitulation could be confirmed if these events trigger a further sell-off and BTC’s Relative Unrealized Loss exceeds 20%.
According to a Senior Glassnode Researcher, CryptoViz Art, BTC’s current Relative Unrealized Loss is approximately 10% of the market cap, which is typical within bull market trends at the current $80k-$90k zone.
But more losses could trigger a 2022-like bear capitulation if the metric climbs above 20%.
Final Thoughts
- BTC has remained constrained below $95k despite the recent dovish Fed rate cut.
- The market appeared cautious ahead of Japan’s interest rate decision on the 19th of December.
