Market Analysis

Delivers insights into price action, technical indicators, market forecasts, and future trends. Data-driven analysis helps investors understand market dynamics and identify potential opportunities for informed decision-making.

Kalshi Trading Volume Continues to Break Records, What Is the Reasonable Pre-Market Stock Price?

Amidst a recent market downturn, the prediction market sector has shown remarkable resilience. Kalshi, the largest regulated prediction market platform in the US, reached a record single-month trading volume exceeding $9.5 billion in January, making it the sector leader. This surge has sparked renewed interest in pricing its pre-IPO shares. Significant price discrepancies exist across different pre-IPO trading platforms. On PreStocks, Kalshi shares are priced between $364 and $369. On Jarsy, the price is notably higher at around $504. In contrast, traditional private markets like Nasdaq Private Market and Hiive list shares at approximately $320 and $358, respectively. The analysis suggests a reasonable pre-IPO share price range for Kalshi is between $320 and $423. This is based on its last private funding round valuation of $11 billion and an estimated implied valuation of at least $15 billion, supported by its surging trading volume which now nearly equals the entire prediction market's size from October of the previous year. The article concludes that Jarsy's current price appears high, while PreStocks may present a potential arbitrage opportunity. Furthermore, with 2026 being a major year for global sporting events, Kalshi's annual revenue potential is seen as substantial, potentially exceeding estimates for competitor Polymarket, which could lead to further increases in its pre-IPO valuation.

Odaily星球日报02/11 10:44

Kalshi Trading Volume Continues to Break Records, What Is the Reasonable Pre-Market Stock Price?

Odaily星球日报02/11 10:44

Bears Circle SKY: Will Momentum Tip Further to the Downside?

The cryptocurrency market continues its bearish trend, with most tokens, including SKY, experiencing losses. SKY has declined by 6.73% in the past 24 hours, trading around $0.06461 after reaching a high of $0.07041. Its trading volume also dropped significantly by 47.57%. Technical analysis suggests a potential further decline toward the $0.06012 support level, with a risk of falling below $0.05640 if bearish pressure continues. A reversal could push the price toward $0.06853 or higher to $0.07275. Indicators show mixed signals: MACD suggests short-term bearishness, while Chaikin Money Flow indicates moderate buying pressure. The RSI at 39.64 shows weak momentum with a slight bearish tilt, and Bull Bear Power suggests near-equilibrium market conditions.

TheNewsCrypto02/11 09:36

Bears Circle SKY: Will Momentum Tip Further to the Downside?

TheNewsCrypto02/11 09:36

Mike Novogratz Says Crypto’s ‘Age of Speculation’ May Be Over — Real-World Assets Next

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz stated that crypto's "age of speculation" may be ending as more risk-averse institutions enter the market, shifting the industry toward tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) with lower returns. He made these remarks at the CNBC Digital Finance Forum in New York, as Bitcoin had fallen sharply in early 2026, down over 21% year-to-date and nearly 50% from its October 2025 peak. Novogratz contrasted the current sell-off with the 2022 FTX collapse, noting there is no "smoking gun" this time. Instead, he pointed to an October 2025 leverage wipeout that erased $19.37 billion in leveraged positions, significantly impacting retail traders and market makers. He emphasized that retail investors typically seek high returns, not the modest yields offered by RWAs. However, he expects speculation to be gradually replaced by using crypto infrastructure to deliver financial services globally, with tokenized assets like stocks offering different return profiles. This shift is already underway, with approximately $24.27 billion in tokenized real-world assets and about $10 billion in tokenized U.S. Treasuries. Novogratz also expressed optimism about the eventual passage of the CLARITY Act, which he believes would help restore confidence in the crypto market.

ccn.com02/11 09:05

Mike Novogratz Says Crypto’s ‘Age of Speculation’ May Be Over — Real-World Assets Next

ccn.com02/11 09:05

US Yield Hints at Rate Cut Possibility as Gold and Silver Surge, Will There be a Crypto Bull Run?

US Treasury yields have declined, with the 10-year yield at 4.139%, significantly below recent highs, suggesting potential economic softening and raising the possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2026 if conditions worsen. This environment has supported safe-haven assets, with gold rising 0.7% to $5,057 per ounce and silver jumping 2.3% to $82.56. Lower yields typically increase investor risk appetite, which could benefit cryptocurrencies. However, the crypto market remains cautious ahead of key US employment and inflation data releases. Bitcoin is currently trading around $66,773, down 3.28%, with projections ranging from $45,000 to $100,000 for 2026. High volatility remains a concern. Fed officials have indicated no urgency to change rates, and the next meeting is scheduled for March 2026. Investors are advised to conduct thorough research amid ongoing economic uncertainty.

TheNewsCrypto02/11 09:04

US Yield Hints at Rate Cut Possibility as Gold and Silver Surge, Will There be a Crypto Bull Run?

TheNewsCrypto02/11 09:04

Trading Moment: Non-Farm Payroll Data Imminent, Bitcoin Challenges $65K Support Level, Market May Remain Volatile in the Short Term

Key Market Focus: U.S. nonfarm payrolls data is expected to be released, with market expectations set at only 70,000 new jobs. A lower-than-expected result could pressure the dollar and support gold. Bitcoin is testing key levels around $65K, with analysts noting it as a critical support zone. If broken, it may decline toward $60K or even lower targets like $52K–$42K. Some analysts believe $60K could be the bottom, while others warn of a potential drop to $30K–$40K. Ethereum is consolidating below $2K, with signs of accumulation between $1.8K–$2K. Market sentiment remains in "extreme fear." BTC and ETH ETFs saw net inflows, while overall crypto markets remain bearish with meme coins leading losses. Key events today include NFP data release and Binance Alpha airdrop.

marsbit02/11 08:57

Trading Moment: Non-Farm Payroll Data Imminent, Bitcoin Challenges $65K Support Level, Market May Remain Volatile in the Short Term

marsbit02/11 08:57

Bitcoin ETF Redemptions and the AI Narrative Rotation: Who is Draining Liquidity from the Crypto Market?

Bitcoin is experiencing its sharpest pullback since 2022, with prices falling over 50% from the October 2025 all-time high of $126,000 to around $60,000. According to Wintermute, this decline is primarily driven by massive outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs—totaling $6.2 billion since November—and a significant capital rotation into AI-themed equities. The report highlights that U.S.-led selling pressure is evident through negative Coinbase premiums and heavy OTC selling. Moreover, the AI narrative has been absorbing liquidity that previously flowed into cryptocurrencies and software stocks, contributing to Bitcoin’s underperformance versus traditional asset classes during the downturn. Structural recovery in Bitcoin, Wintermute argues, depends on three key indicators turning positive: Coinbase premium, ETF flow reversal, and stabilized basis rates. Until then, sustained upward momentum remains unlikely. As of publication, Bitcoin traded around $69,700, down 0.3% in 24 hours.

marsbit02/11 08:51

Bitcoin ETF Redemptions and the AI Narrative Rotation: Who is Draining Liquidity from the Crypto Market?

marsbit02/11 08:51

TRON – How long can market bulls defend THIS long-term demand zone?

TRON (TRX) faces a critical test as it struggles to defend the long-term demand zone between $0.26 and $0.27. Despite strong network fundamentals and its role as a leading stablecoin settlement layer, the token shows signs of short-term bearish pressure. The weekly chart structure turned bearish after a drop below $0.27, with declining Open Interest and weakened buying momentum. While the $0.26–$0.27 zone presents a potential buying opportunity, further downside toward $0.245 is possible if bulls fail to hold. Traders are advised to remain cautious and monitor Bitcoin’s movement, as a broader market recovery could influence TRX's direction.

ambcrypto02/11 08:02

TRON – How long can market bulls defend THIS long-term demand zone?

ambcrypto02/11 08:02

Dialogue with Bitwise Chief Investment Officer: Multiple Factors Overlap Leading to Market Plunge, Optimistic About Future Institutional Buying

In a recent podcast, crypto analyst Miles Deutscher interviewed Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, discussing the recent market crash, Bitcoin's role as digital gold, institutional adoption, and key trends like RWA and privacy. Hougan attributed the sharp market decline to multiple factors, including early investor profit-taking, fallout from the October 10 liquidation event, concerns over a potentially hawkish new Fed chair, and broader macro pressures. He noted the Fear and Greed Index hit a record low of 5, suggesting a potential asymmetric upside. On Bitcoin's underperformance vs. gold, Hougan explained that central banks' increased gold purchases since 2022 (due to geopolitical concerns) created a supply squeeze that took years to impact prices. He believes Bitcoin ETFs will similarly absorb supply over time, driving long-term value. The next major buyers are expected to be financial advisors, large brokerages like Morgan Stanley, family offices, insurers, and sovereign nations. However, institutional adoption is slow, often requiring multiple meetings over years before allocation. Hougan expressed strong optimism for privacy coins due to growing demand amid Bitcoin's regulatory integration. He also views RWA (real-world assets) as highly undervalued, with potential for 100x growth in well-structured DeFi projects as tokenization expands. Regarding talent outflow to AI, he acknowledged the trend but argued that AI agents will become major users of crypto infrastructure like wallets, stablecoins, and DeFi due to their efficiency and automation capabilities.

marsbit02/11 06:20

Dialogue with Bitwise Chief Investment Officer: Multiple Factors Overlap Leading to Market Plunge, Optimistic About Future Institutional Buying

marsbit02/11 06:20

BitMine Buys Over 40,000 ETH As Sell-Off Deepens, Shrugs Off Massive Paper Losses

BitMine Immersion Technologies acquired 40,613 ETH (worth $83–84 million) during a market downturn, increasing its total holdings to approximately 4.32–4.33 million ETH. Despite facing an estimated $7.5–8 billion in unrealized paper losses due to Ether's price decline, Executive Chairman Tom Lee defended the strategy, viewing the dip as a buying opportunity and predicting a V-shaped recovery. The company’s stock (BMNR) fell roughly 5% following the announcement, reflecting investor concern over the immediate impact on net asset value. BitMine continues to stake part of its ETH to generate yield, betting on long-term price appreciation. The outcome hinges on Ether’s price trajectory and the firm’s ability to manage short-term losses through staking returns and strategic patience.

bitcoinist02/11 06:02

BitMine Buys Over 40,000 ETH As Sell-Off Deepens, Shrugs Off Massive Paper Losses

bitcoinist02/11 06:02

Nikkei Above 57,000: Japanese Government Bond Risks Reshaping Global Asset Allocation

The Nikkei 225 surged past 57,000, a historic high, driven by political certainty after Japan’s ruling coalition secured a supermajority. This sparked expectations of aggressive fiscal stimulus and industrial policy, boosting equities like defense and tech stocks. However, Japanese government bonds (JGBs) faced heavy selling, with long-term yields spiking, reflecting concerns over fiscal sustainability and inflation. The Bank of Japan may be forced to hike rates to counter yen weakness and rising yields, creating a "fiscal dominance" dilemma. Globally, this shift interacts with China reducing U.S. Treasury holdings, U.S. tech rallies, and gold hitting $5,000 as a hedge against sovereign credit risks. Investors are advised to consider long volatility strategies, tactical yen rebounds, and allocations to hard assets like gold and Bitcoin amid heightened market uncertainty.

比推02/11 05:48

Nikkei Above 57,000: Japanese Government Bond Risks Reshaping Global Asset Allocation