Memory Module Prices Plummet, Memory Stocks Fall Collectively, Has the Memory Super Cycle Peaked?
Memory module prices have plummeted recently, with DDR5 kits in the U.S. seeing discounts of up to $110 and wholesale prices in China dropping sharply. This has triggered a significant sell-off in memory stocks, wiping nearly $100 billion from the sector's market value last week. Analysts are divided on whether this signals the end of the memory "super cycle." Some, like Dan Nystedt, argue that buyer resistance to high prices, especially for DDR4 in smartphones, indicates a classic cyclical peak. However, others, including independent analyst Jukan, contend that the current cycle is structurally different, driven by essential, inelastic demand for high-end DDR5 in AI and premium devices, with manufacturers now operating models that prevent reckless overcapacity expansion. Investment bank HSBC remains bullish, calling the recent sell-off an overreaction and stating that the AI-driven super cycle is only at its midpoint. It argues that efficiency technologies like Google's TurboQuant will accelerate, not hinder, AI adoption and demand, and it forecasts strong growth in AI server shipments and enterprise SSD demand through 2027. It views any price pullback as a buying opportunity.
marsbit03/30 07:29
