Bitcoin

Bhutan Starts Selling Bitcoin Again: Arkham Flags $22.4 Million

bitcoinist02/05 12:02

Bitcoin at $70,000: When Will the BTC Decline Stop?

Bitcoin is steadily declining towards the symbolic $70,000 mark, signaling a deeper issue of waning demand rather than panic selling. On-chain data reveals a structurally bearish market: the Bull Score Index has hit zero, spot volumes are low, and institutional flows have reversed, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs becoming net sellers. The negative Coinbase premium indicates sustained disengagement from US investors, while a contraction in USDT's market cap suggests reduced fresh capital entering the ecosystem. Technically, BTC is trading below its 365-day moving average, with key on-chain support between $60,000 and $70,000. The lack of immediate catalysts, such as Federal Reserve rate cuts, and political uncertainty further dampen sentiment. Bitcoin now behaves like a high-beta tech asset, correlating with equity market pressures. However, current data reflects an absence of buyers rather than excessive selling, potentially setting the stage for slow accumulation if prices reach long-term value zones. The end of the downturn hinges on a gradual return of liquidity and confidence, not just a technical signal.

bitcoinist02/05 10:55

Bitcoin: The End of 'Faith-Based Trading'

Bitcoin is undergoing a painful transition from a purely speculative asset to an institutional one, marked by a 40% decline from its October 2025 peak of around $125,000 to approximately $73,000. This signals the end of the "Tinkerbell Effect," where prices were sustained by belief rather than fundamentals. Key drivers include hawkish signals from the Fed, sustained institutional outflows—with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing over $30 billion in outflows in January 2026 alone—and stalled regulatory progress, such as the delayed CLARITY Act. Bitcoin has decoupled from traditional assets, falling 11% in January while gold rose 13%, breaking its "digital gold" narrative. Correlation with equities has also dropped significantly. It is testing key technical levels, having broken below the average ETF entry price of $81,600 and approaching the psychologically critical $70,000 mark. Despite a 370% gain since early 2023, the current pullback reflects a withdrawal of speculative excess rather than a fundamental breakdown. The market is shifting from faith-based trading to value anchoring, though Bitcoin’s high volatility remains inherent. Concerns about a potential "crypto winter" persist if declines deepen, especially given Bitcoin’s sensitivity to Federal Reserve liquidity changes. The long-term outlook points to a complex maturation beyond pure speculation.

华尔街日报02/05 10:36

Glassnode On-Chain Data Reveals: True Mean Lost, Bitcoin Enters 'Bear Time'

Bitcoin has broken below its "Realized Price" (the average on-chain acquisition cost of active supply), signaling a shift to a bearish market structure. On-chain data reveals initial accumulation between $70K-$80K and a dense cost basis cluster at $66.9K-$70.6K, which may provide short-term support. However, investor capitulation is intensifying, with realized losses exceeding $1.26B daily. Spot trading volume remains weak despite the price decline from $98K to $72K, indicating a lack of buying interest and poor sell-side absorption. Derivatives markets show forced deleveraging, with record long liquidations adding downward pressure. Institutional inflows have weakened significantly, with ETF flows diminishing. Options markets reflect heightened downside risk expectations, as put option demand rises and implied volatility remains elevated. The volatility risk premium turned negative, suggesting increased hedging activity may exacerbate near-term volatility. While the liquidation of leveraged positions removes excess speculation, a sustainable recovery requires renewed spot demand and fundamental improvement. Without substantial buying pressure, any price bounce is likely technical and temporary, with risks skewed to the downside.

marsbit02/05 10:21

From $561M inflows to sudden exits – Inside Bitcoin ETF’s February shock

After four consecutive days of over $1.5 billion in outflows, U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a rebound on February 2 with $561.8 million in net inflows, led by Fidelity’s FBTC and BlackRock’s IBIT. However, the trend reversed sharply the next day with $272 million in net outflows, driven by institutional caution as Bitcoin’s price declined. While Bitcoin ETFs faced significant withdrawals, some capital shifted to altcoin ETFs like Ethereum, Ripple, and Solana, indicating a diversification rather than a full exit from crypto. The volatility underscores growing uncertainty, with total outflows reaching $1.7 billion by the end of the period—the largest drop since mid-November.

ambcrypto02/05 05:07

Bitcoin Briefly Falls Below $71,000 as Market Confidence is Repriced

Bitcoin has fallen below the $71,000 mark, reaching its lowest level since November 2024, with a year-to-date decline of approximately 17%. The drop is part of a broader market sell-off, as global risk aversion intensified, pulling down the Nasdaq 100 by over 2% and pressuring rate-sensitive tech sectors. Unlike previous declines driven by crypto-specific liquidations, this downturn reflects wider cross-asset stress, challenging Bitcoin’s narrative as a safe-haven asset. Market sentiment has shifted toward "extreme fear," with analysts warning that losing the $72,000 support could lead to further declines toward $68,000 or even lower. Prediction markets now indicate an 83% probability that Bitcoin falls to $65,000 this year. The crypto market has lost over $460 billion in just one week, with total capitalization down $1.7 trillion from its peak. Despite a brief inflow into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, fund flows have turned volatile, adding to uncertainty. The current environment suggests Bitcoin is increasingly perceived as a high-risk, volatile asset rather than a reliable store of value during market stress.

比推02/05 05:00

Pricing Mechanism Failure: Bitcoin Lost in Conflicting Narratives

Bitcoin's identity crisis is causing its pricing mechanism to fail, as it simultaneously tries to function as four conflicting assets: an inflation hedge, a tech stock, digital gold, and an institutional reserve asset. This confusion was starkly exposed on January 29, 2026, when Bitcoin crashed 15% amid contradictory market events—falling both when it should have risen (as a safe haven during a stock market crash) and when it should have fallen (as a risk asset on hawkish signals). The article argues that Bitcoin's price is no longer driven by fundamentals like adoption or scarcity, but by institutional algorithmic trading and correlation assumptions with equities. Its volatility now moves in lockstep with stock market volatility (correlation of 0.88 with VIX), amplifying portfolio losses instead of providing diversification. Four potential resolution paths are outlined: Bitcoin could solidify as a strategic reserve asset (pushing price to $150K), normalize as a risk asset ($80K-$110K), become a true inflation hedge ($110K-$140K), or fail as a diversifier ($40K-$60K). The market's direction will be determined by key indicators like correlation shifts, government adoption announcements, on-chain activity, and volatility decoupling from stocks. Until Bitcoin’s identity is clearly defined, it will remain prone to reflexive price swings disconnected from utility.

marsbit02/05 04:48

Bitcoin Set To Test Resistance At $80,600 After Bottoming At $74,000

Bitcoin (BTC) bottomed at $74,000 and is now poised to test the $80,600 resistance level, according to analyst Tara. Despite recent pullbacks, the market structure remains bullish. A double bottom formation suggests a potential upward retracement, with an expected minor pullback to $77,600 before a possible surge toward $83,700. Tara outlines a scenario where BTC might later test the $70,700 support level before entering a final Wave 5 rally. The long-term target remains $150,000, with a slight adjustment to $145,000 if the lower support is reached. The overall outlook for Bitcoin remains strongly bullish.

bitcoinist02/05 03:33

Bitcoin's Identity Anxiety in 2026: 4 Paths to $150,000

The article "Bitcoin's Identity Crisis in 2026: Four Paths to $150,000" analyzes Bitcoin's significant price drop on January 29, 2026, when it fell 15% from $96,000 to $80,000. The author argues that Bitcoin is currently trading under four conflicting identities: an inflation hedge, a tech stock, digital gold, and an institutional reserve asset. This identity crisis causes inconsistent and chaotic price movements, as Bitcoin fails to behave predictably under different market conditions—such as falling during both a stock market crash and hawkish Fed signals. Data shows Bitcoin's correlation with Nasdaq rising to 0.68 and its volatility correlating with stock volatility at 0.88, indicating it acts more like a leveraged tech bet than a uncorrelated asset. The author outlines four potential resolution paths: adoption as a strategic reserve (leading to $120K-$150K), normalization as a risk asset ($80K-$110K), acceptance as a true inflation hedge ($110K-$140K), or failure as a diversifier ($40K-$60K). Key indicators to watch include correlation shifts, government adoption announcements, on-chain metrics, and volatility normalization. The conclusion emphasizes that until its fundamental identity is resolved, Bitcoin's price will remain driven by institutional positioning and correlation algorithms rather than utility or adoption.

marsbit02/05 03:17