Bitcoin

Focuses on news, price analysis, technological evolution, and market trends within the Bitcoin ecosystem. It explores its role and influence in the global financial system.

Reviewing Past Bitcoin Bull Markets: Why the Four-Year Cycle Occurs and Is It Over?

The article examines Bitcoin's four-year market cycles, traditionally aligned with its halving events, and questions whether this pattern still holds. It outlines the typical cycle phases: accumulation (low volatility, long-term buying), pre-halving bullish anticipation, a parabolic bull run with retail FOMO and leverage, and a sharp correction leading to a bear market. Bitcoin halvings, which reduce mining rewards by half every four years, are highlighted as a core mechanism for creating scarcity, similar to precious metals. Past cycles (2013, 2017, 2021) are reviewed, each driven by distinct catalysts (e.g., Mt. Gox collapse, ICO boom, COVID-19 stimulus) and ending with crashes exceeding 80%. Reasons for the cycle include the stock-to-flow model (measuring scarcity), market psychology/self-fulfilling prophecies, and global liquidity conditions. The current 2025 cycle is noted for unprecedented institutional involvement via ETFs and corporate treasuries, causing Bitcoin to hit new highs before the 2024 halving with less retail participation. Arguments for the cycle's end cite increased adoption by disciplined institutions (reducing volatility), Bitcoin's growing correlation with macro factors like Fed policy, and the diminishing impact of each halving. Key indicators to watch for cycle validation include post-halving price surges, large leverage unwinds, and retail altcoin speculation. The conclusion states that while historical patterns are evident, Bitcoin's evolution into a mainstream asset makes future cycles potentially different. Only time will tell if the four-year cycle persists or becomes obsolete.

marsbit12/16 06:26

Reviewing Past Bitcoin Bull Markets: Why the Four-Year Cycle Occurs and Is It Over?

marsbit12/16 06:26

Most crypto sectors lagged Bitcoin over past 3 months: Glassnode

Despite a 26% decline over the past three months, Bitcoin has outperformed most other cryptocurrency sectors, according to Glassnode. While Bitcoin fell to around $86,000, the total crypto market cap dropped 27.5%. Ether declined approximately 36%, while AI-related tokens fell 48%, memecoins dropped 56%, and real-world asset tokenization lost 46%. DeFi tokens decreased by 38%. Glassnode noted this underperformance highlights a market where capital concentration favors Bitcoin, reflecting its perceived stability and stronger institutional appeal. Analysts suggest Bitcoin remains a safer haven, with altcoins struggling to maintain relevance amid current conditions.

cointelegraph12/16 06:12

Most crypto sectors lagged Bitcoin over past 3 months: Glassnode

cointelegraph12/16 06:12

Adam Back shuts down Quantum FUD that could ‘likely crash Bitcoin’s market’

Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, dismisses claims that quantum computing poses an immediate threat to Bitcoin, stating current technology is incapable of cracking the network. He estimates it could take 20-40 years for quantum computers to become stable and powerful enough to threaten BTC, and by then, the network could be upgraded for quantum security. While some investors, like Charles Edwards, urge faster action, experts note that existing quantum prototypes have high error rates and far fewer than the 2,500+ stable qubits required to break Bitcoin's encryption. In the meantime, holders are migrating to more secure Segwit addresses to reduce vulnerability.

ambcrypto12/16 05:02

Adam Back shuts down Quantum FUD that could ‘likely crash Bitcoin’s market’

ambcrypto12/16 05:02

Top Events That Can Decide The Fate Of Bitcoin And The Crypto Market This Week

Bitcoin and the crypto market face a pivotal week with several high-impact events that could dictate near-term price direction. Key U.S. economic data releases include the October retail sales, November jobs report, and especially the November CPI inflation figures—critical drivers for market sentiment. Strong data may reinforce expectations of prolonged high interest rates, pressuring Bitcoin, while softer inflation could support risk assets. The Bank of Japan's potential rate hike and scheduled speeches from U.S. Fed officials add further uncertainty, as shifts in global liquidity and monetary policy significantly influence crypto volatility. Recent Fed actions have already triggered sell-offs, highlighting the market’s sensitivity to macro developments.

bitcoinist12/16 04:37

Top Events That Can Decide The Fate Of Bitcoin And The Crypto Market This Week

bitcoinist12/16 04:37

From Yen Interest Rate Hikes to Mining Farms Shutting Down: Why Bitcoin Continues to Fall

This article analyzes the recent decline in Bitcoin's price, which fell to around $85,600, attributing it to a combination of macro-economic pressures. The primary factor is the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) anticipated interest rate hike, its first since January 2025. Historically, such hikes have triggered 20-30% Bitcoin sell-offs. As the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries, Japan's policy shift could unwind massive yen carry trades, forcing global deleveraging and impacting risk assets like crypto. Uncertainty around the U.S. Federal Reserve's future rate-cutting path post its first cut is another key factor. Upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll and CPI data are critical; weak jobs data might make the Fed cautious, while sticky inflation could prompt faster balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening), effectively tightening liquidity. Finally, sustained selling pressure is evident from large outflows in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, significant BTC deposits to exchanges like Binance, and miner capitulation. Data shows long-term holders are accelerating disposals, and a reported shutdown of mining operations in Xinjiang, causing a 17% drop in network hash rate, confirms miner distress. These factors collectively create a bearish environment of tightening global liquidity and institutional selling.

marsbit12/16 03:59

From Yen Interest Rate Hikes to Mining Farms Shutting Down: Why Bitcoin Continues to Fall

marsbit12/16 03:59

Bitcoin Miners Are Abandoning 'Mining' for 'Cloud'

Facing a survival crisis due to declining Bitcoin prices and rising operational costs, Bitcoin miners are increasingly pivoting to AI data center leasing as a sustainable alternative. The core business model of Bitcoin mining has become economically unviable, with the average cost to mine one Bitcoin reaching approximately $74,600—exceeding its current market price of around $91,000, resulting in significant per-unit losses. Miners are leveraging their existing infrastructure—including high-performance GPUs, pre-approved large-scale power capacity, and advanced cooling systems—to meet the explosive demand from tech giants for readily available AI data center space. This shift not only provides a stable revenue stream but also reduces reliance on volatile crypto markets. Companies like Core Scientific have successfully transitioned, now operating about 200 MW of data center capacity with plans to expand further. Beyond data center leasing, some miners are exploring broader digital asset technology (DAT) business models. This industry-wide evolution signals a move toward greater resilience and maturity, as weaker pure-play miners exit and leading firms diversify into integrated service providers.

深潮12/16 03:29

Bitcoin Miners Are Abandoning 'Mining' for 'Cloud'

深潮12/16 03:29

Bitcoin Drops Below $86,000, But Is the Decline Just Beginning?

Bitcoin fell below $86,000 over the weekend, extending a broader correction that has seen it decline more than 30% since its mid-October all-time high. The broader crypto market followed, with Ethereum, BNB, XRP, and SOL all posting losses. Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone issued a stark warning in a new report, suggesting Bitcoin could potentially fall to $10,000 by 2026. His bearish outlook is not based on crypto-specific factors but is rooted in a macro view of an impending global economic inflection point from inflation to deflation. McGlone argues that as liquidity tightens and growth slows, risk assets like Bitcoin—which he views as highly speculative and correlated to market sentiment—will undergo significant repricing. He highlights three key factors: a mean reversion after extreme wealth creation, the declining Bitcoin-to-gold ratio (which has already dropped ~40% this year), and systemic oversupply of speculative crypto assets competing for limited risk budgets. This view contrasts with other institutional forecasts. While firms like Standard Chartered have also lowered their long-term Bitcoin price targets, they remain significantly higher than McGlone’s prediction. Analytics platform Glassnode notes that current market stress is reminiscent of early 2022, with unrealized losses nearing 10% of market cap, indicating a sensitive but not yet panic-driven sell-off phase. The article concludes that Bitcoin's trajectory is now deeply tied to global macro conditions. Upcoming central bank decisions and economic data releases from the ECB, BOE, BOJ, and the U.S. will be critical in shaping expectations for monetary policy in 2026 and determining the direction of risk assets.

marsbit12/16 03:19

Bitcoin Drops Below $86,000, But Is the Decline Just Beginning?

marsbit12/16 03:19

Bitcoin to hit new all-time high within 6 months: Grayscale

Grayscale analysts predict Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high in the first half of 2026, driven by increased macro demand for alternative value stores and improved U.S. regulatory clarity. The firm expects the end of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle theory, citing rising fiat currency debasement risks due to public debt and inflation. Regulatory progress, including dropped cases against crypto firms, Bitcoin ETF approvals, and the GENIUS Act, supports this outlook. Grayscale also highlights 2026 investment themes like stablecoin growth, asset tokenization, and DeFi expansion, while downplaying the near-term impact of quantum computing and digital asset treasuries.

cointelegraph12/16 03:00

Bitcoin to hit new all-time high within 6 months: Grayscale

cointelegraph12/16 03:00

Where does tech stocks’ recent performance leave Bitcoin’s price?

Bitcoin has significantly underperformed compared to tech stocks and the broader U.S. equity market in H2 2025, with a 15% decline while the Nasdaq Composite gained 17%. The cryptocurrency recently decoupled from tech equities, dropping from $94k to below $90k ahead of key macro events. This week’s U.S. CPI data and the Bank of Japan rate decision are critical, with a 25 bps BoJ hike already priced in. Analysts caution that past BoJ hikes triggered 20-30% BTC declines. Glassnode founders suggest BTC is in a 'bottoming phase' and may revisit the $85.5k-$87k liquidation zone. However, the $83k level—the average cost basis for U.S. spot BTC ETFs—could provide support. Despite short-term risks, analysts remain constructive for 2026, expecting macro clarity to renew bullish momentum.

ambcrypto12/16 02:01

Where does tech stocks’ recent performance leave Bitcoin’s price?

ambcrypto12/16 02:01

BTC Falls Back to $10,000?! Bloomberg Senior Expert Gives the Most Pessimistic Prediction

Bitcoin has retreated below $90,000, extending a 30%+ decline from its October all-time high. The broader crypto market is under pressure, with most top assets in the red. Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone issued a stark warning, predicting Bitcoin could fall to $10,000 by 2026. He argues that global markets are approaching an inflationary-to-deflationary inflection point, where risk assets like Bitcoin—viewed as highly speculative and dependent on liquidity—could face severe repricing. McGlone cites three factors: extreme wealth reversion to the mean, Bitcoin's high valuation relative to gold, and systemic oversupply of speculative crypto assets. While not all analysts agree, institutions like Standard Chartered have also lowered mid-term Bitcoin price targets. The market's direction is now tied to macro conditions, with key central bank decisions and economic data releases expected to shape the trajectory of risk assets in 2026.

比推12/15 23:58

BTC Falls Back to $10,000?! Bloomberg Senior Expert Gives the Most Pessimistic Prediction