As January draws to a close, volatility is gradually picking up.
On the macro side, two key events are unfolding – First, the Supreme Court tariff ruling and second, the U.S. employment data. Together, these events will set the stage for a potentially turbulent week for risk-assets.
That said, the timing couldn’t be better for Bitcoin [BTC]. BTC’s 30-day Open Interest (OI) has fallen to its lowest levels since 2022, serving as a key signal of how these macro events can influence Bitcoin’s next move.
The biggest takeaway? The market isn’t running on “blind optimism.”
Notably, that’s a big shift from Q4, when BTC’s OI overheated to $94 billion. This time around, the OI is under control, and the positioning shows up in the market pricing as there’s just a 13% chance of a rate cut in the upcoming FOMC.
In short, the market might be leaning towards caution rather than blind optimism.
From a technical standpoint, with a heavy macro week ahead, this would help prevent another market crash. However, for Bitcoin, it could actually create the conditions ripe for a more measured move towards six figures.
Macro FUD mounts, but Bitcoin could find a window for a rally
Bitcoin’s early 2026 momentum hasn’t sparked FOMO just yet.
On the institutional side, Bitcoin ETFs are still seeing outflows, with the latest totaling $400 million. Meanwhile, the Coinbase Premium Index (CPI) was in the red at press time. In short, the demand from U.S. investors remains muted.
The weakening labor market could shift the dynamics though. In fact, data revealed that over the last 12 months, job openings have declined by 885k – Dragging the ratio of vacancies to unemployed workers down to 0.91.
Against that backdrop, the market pricing only a 13% chance of a rate cut might be overly cautious. Instead, with U.S unemployment steadily rising, a rate cut feels increasingly priced in rather than out.
Notably, this is where BTC’s cooling metrics come into focus. With the absence of “blind optimism,” the current positioning could actually work in Bitcoin’s favor, setting up a cleaner path towards a more sustainable rally.
Meanwhile, BTC has been holding above the $85k-level despite a soft institutional bid – A sign of underlying conviction. If this trend holds, a move towards the $100k-level by the first week of February wouldn’t be out of reach.
Final Thoughts
- With tariff risks, soft labor data, and low rate-cut expectations, markets remain cautious.
- Bitcoin is holding above $85k, opening the door for a measured push towards the $100k-level if conditions hold.
